Determinants of imminent fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.

In elderly women with osteoporosis, prior fracture, low BMD, impaired physical functioning, poorer general health, and recent falls were all direct predictors of imminent (in next year) fracture risk. Prior fracture, older age, worse health, impaired cognitive functioning, and recent falls indirectly increased imminent risk by reducing physical functioning/general health. INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to examine determinants of imminent risk of osteoporotic fracture (i.e., next 1-2 years) in postmenopausal women. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from Caucasian women age 65 or older with osteoporosis who participated in the observational Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). We examined potential direct and indirect predictors of hip and nonvertebral fractures in 1-year follow-up intervals including anthropometric measures, bone mineral density (T-score), fracture since age 50, physical function, cognition, medical conditions, recent (past year) falls, and lifestyle factors. Clinically related variables were grouped into constructs via factor analysis. These constructs and selected individual variables were incorporated into a theoretical structural equation model to evaluate factors that influence imminent risk. RESULTS: Among 2261 patients, 19.4% had a nonvertebral fracture and 5.5% had a hip fracture within 1 year of a study visit between 1992 and 2008. Prior fracture, lower T-scores, lower physical functioning, and recent falls all directly increased 1-year risk of nonvertebral fracture. For both nonvertebral and hip fractures, prior fracture and recent falls influenced risk indirectly through general health, while cognition influenced risk via physical functioning. Age influenced both physical functioning and general health. CONCLUSIONS: Several established risk factors for 10-year fracture risk also played a role in predicting imminent risk of fracture (e.g., T-scores, prior fracture), as did falls, cognition, physical functioning, and general health. Fracture risk assessments should also consider falls and fall risk factors as well as established bone-related risk factors in assessing imminent fracture risk.

Predictors of near-term fracture in osteoporotic women aged ≥65 years, based on data from the study of osteoporotic fractures.

Using data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), several clinical characteristics predictive of near-term (1-year) risk of hip and non-vertebral fracture among elderly osteoporotic women were identified, and a subset of those for hip fracture was incorporated into a risk assessment tool. Additional research is needed to validate study findings. INTRODUCTION: While several risk factors are known to contribute to long-term fracture risk in women with osteoporosis, factors predicting fracture risk over a shorter time horizon, such as over a 1-year period, are less well-established. METHODS: We utilized a repeated-observations design and data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures to identify factors contributing to near-term risk of hip fracture and any non-vertebral fracture, respectively, among osteoporotic women aged ≥65 years. Potential predictors of hip fracture and any non-vertebral fracture over the 1-year period subsequent to each qualifying SOF exam were examined using multivariable frailty models. Because the discriminative ability of the hip fracture model was acceptable, a corresponding risk-prediction tool was also developed. RESULTS: Study population included 2499 women with osteoporosis, who contributed 6811 observations. Incidence of fracture in the 1-year period subsequent to each exam was 2.2% for hip fracture and 6.6% for any non-vertebral fracture. Independent predictors of hip fracture included low total hip T-score, prior fracture, and risk factors for falls (multivariable model c-statistic = 0.71 (95% CI 0.67-0.76)). Independent predictors of any non-vertebral fracture included age, total hip T-score, prior falls, prior fracture, walking speed, Parkinson's disease or stroke, and smoking (multivariable model c-statistic = 0.62 (0.59-0.65)). CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical characteristics predictive of hip and non-vertebral fracture within a 1-year follow-up period among elderly women with osteoporosis were identified, and a subset of those for hip fracture was incorporated into a risk assessment tool. Assessment of these risk factors may help guide osteoporosis treatment choices by identifying patients in whom there is urgency to treat. Additional research is needed to validate the findings of this study and the accuracy of the risk assessment tool.

Adherence with bisphosphonate therapy and change in bone mineral density among women with osteoporosis or osteopenia in clinical practice.

UNLABELLED: In clinical practice, adherence with bisphosphonate therapy varies greatly among women with osteoporosis or osteopenia. Our study suggests that better adherence with bisphosphonates confers tangible benefits in terms of graded increases in bone mineral density. Interventions to improve drug adherence should be an important component of disease management. INTRODUCTION: In clinical trials, bisphosphonates have been found to increase bone mineral density (BMD) in women with osteoporosis or osteopenia. In clinical practice, where drug adherence is more variable, change in BMD with bisphosphonate therapy-overall and by level of adherence-is largely unknown. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at Henry Ford Health System (Detroit, MI, USA). Study subjects were women who had low BMD at the left total hip (T-score<-1.0), began oral bisphosphonate therapy, and had ≥1 BMD measurements at the left total hip≥6 months following treatment initiation. Change in BMD was calculated between the most recent pretreatment scan and the first follow-up scan. Adherence (i.e., medication possession ratio (MPR)) was measured from therapy initiation to the first follow-up scan. RESULTS: Among 644 subjects, mean age was 66 years, pretreatment BMD was 0.73 g/cm2, and pretreatment T-score was -1.8. Over a mean follow-up of 27.1 months, mean MPR was 0.57 (95% CI, 0.54 and 0.59), and mean percentage change in BMD was 1.5% (1.1 and 1.9%). Within the MPR strata (five consecutive equi-intervals, from low (0-0.19) to high (0.80-1.0)), mean change in BMD was -0.8% (-1.6 and 0.1%), 0.7% (-0.3 and 1.7%), 2.1% (1.1 and 3.0%), 2.1% (1.4 and 2.9%), and 2.9% (2.3 and 3.5%), respectively. In adjusted analyses, percentage change in BMD was higher (by 1.4-3.4%, p<0.05 for all) in the highest four MPR intervals, respectively, versus MPR 0-0.19. CONCLUSIONS: Among women with osteoporosis or osteopenia in clinical practice, better adherence with bisphosphonates appears to confer tangible benefits in terms of increases in BMD.

Modeling the decline in pneumococcal acute otitis media following the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in the US.

We hypothesized that following the introduction of PCV7, the exchange of vaccine serotypes (VST) for non-vaccine serotypes (NVST) in the nasopharynx has resulted in fewer episodes of pneumococcal acute otitis media (AOM) due to the reduced capacity for common NVST strains to cause disease. We modeled the change in the proportion of children colonized with S. pneumoniae who would develop pneumococcal AOM that would occur due to serotype replacement, and projected the future impact of PCV13. Our model is based on observed changes in the nasopharyngeal pneumococcal serotype distribution from the pre- to post-PCV7 era, and an estimated capacity of each serotype to produce pneumococcal AOM given colonization; the latter was derived by dividing serotype-specific disease prevalence by serotype-specific carriage prevalence in the same population. Our results indicate a 12% (95% CI 0.5-26) decline in the number of AOM episodes attributable to S. pneumoniae in children less than 3 years of age between 2000 and 2007 due to the combined effects of PCV7 vaccine efficacy and vaccine-induced serotype replacement, and predicts that PCV13 will further decrease pneumococcal AOM an additional 27% (95% CI 13-40) from 2007 to 2013. Evaluation of changes in VST disease revealed a 91% (95% CI 83-97) decrease in PCV7-VST AOM from 2000 to 2007, and predicted an additional 65% (95% CI 57-74) decrease in PCV13-VST AOM from 2007 to 2013. Our model indicates that following vaccination, nasopharyngeal replacement of VST by NVST has led to a decrease in the amount of pneumococcal AOM despite a consistent rate of S. pneumoniae colonization, and that pneumococcal AOM may continue to decrease as pneumococcal serotypes with greater capacity to cause disease are replaced by less locally invasive serotypes.

Cost of neutropenic complications of chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Cost of neutropenic complications of myelosuppressive chemotherapy has been reported to be substantial. Prior research, however, has focused on initial hospitalization only and has failed to account for follow-on care. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using a US health-care claims database, all adult cancer patients who received a course of chemotherapy were identified. For each such patient, each unique cycle of chemotherapy within the course and each occurrence of neutropenic complications within these cycles were characterized. Patients developing neutropenic complications in a given cycle (neutropenia patients), starting with the first, were matched (1:1) to those who did not develop neutropenic complications in that cycle (comparison patients), and health-care costs (i.e. expenditures) were tallied for each matched pair. RESULTS: Neutropenia patients (n = 373) and comparison patients were similar in terms of baseline characteristics. Costs of neutropenia-related care were $12,397 (95% confidence interval $10,274-$14,754) higher for neutropenia versus comparison patients [$14,407 ($12,357-$16,743) versus $2010 ($1490-$2553)]. Among neutropenia patients, mean cost of initial hospitalization for neutropenic complications was $7813 ($6537-$9379); cost of all subsequent neutropenia-related care averaged $6594 ($5217-$8272). CONCLUSIONS: Neutropenic complications of myelosuppressive chemotherapy are costly. Prior research focusing on initial hospitalization only may have underestimated the cost of these complications by as much as 40%.

Risk of chronic kidney disease in hypertensive patients with other metabolic conditions.

Using a retrospective cohort design and electronic medical records, we examined chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk over a 6-year period among hypertensive patients in relation to the presence of diabetes, hyperlipidaemia and/or high body mass index. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking status and baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR), hypertensive patients without other metabolic risk factors had a relative risk of CKD (versus normotensive patients) of 2.0 (95% CI 1.8-2.2); hypertensive patients with other metabolic conditions had adjusted relative risks ranging from 2.4 to 2.6 for those without comorbid diabetes, and from 3.3 to 5.5 for those with comorbid diabetes. Our study thus confirms prior research demonstrating elevated CKD risk in hypertensive patients, and suggests that this risk varies substantially in relation to other metabolic conditions, especially diabetes.

Risk of diabetes in a real-world setting among patients initiating antihypertensive therapy with valsartan or amlodipine.

In the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-Term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial, the risk of new-onset diabetes was reported to be 23% lower among patients initiating therapy with valsartan versus amlodipine. The objective of our study was to examine whether this finding is generalizable to 'real-world' clinical practice. A retrospective cohort design and a large US health insurance database were employed for analyses. Study subjects included all hypertensive patients, aged >or=35 years, who were free from diabetes and who initiated treatment with valsartan (n=9999) or amlodipine (n=18 698) between January 1999 and March 2005. Unadjusted absolute risks of diabetes were 21.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 18.9-24.3) and 26.3 (95% CI 24.3-28.3) per 1000 patient-years for valsartan and amlodipine, respectively; the corresponding relative risk (RR) for valsartan was 0.82 (95% CI 0.70-0.94). Multivariate analyses - controlling for age, sex, presence of hypercholesterolemia, cardiovascular disease and kidney disease, and pretreatment medical care expenditures - yielded similar results (RR=0.79, 95% CI 0.68-0.92). Our study thus corroborates the finding from VALUE that diabetes risk is lower for patients who receive valsartan versus amlodipine, and extends this finding to a 'real-world' setting.

Compliance with osteoporosis drug therapy and risk of fracture.

INTRODUCTION: Patient compliance with osteoporosis drug therapy is often poor in clinical practice and may be associated with higher risk of fracture. METHODS: A nested case-control study was undertaken using a US health insurance claims database. The source population included all women aged >or=45 years who began drug therapy for osteoporosis. Cases consisted of those who experienced an osteoporosis-related fracture; they were matched to controls without osteoporosis-related fracture. Compliance with osteoporosis drug treatment was assessed in terms of the number of therapy-days received and medication possession ratio (MPR). Conditional logistic regression was employed to examine the relationship between compliance and fracture risk. RESULTS: A total of 453 women with osteoporosis-related fracture were identified and matched to 2,160 controls. Fracture risk was significantly lower for patients with >180 days of therapy [181-360 days: odds ratio (OR) = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.49-0.99; >360 days: OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.43-0.99) versus those with or=90% (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.52-0.93) versus those with MPR <30%. Fracture risk decreased as compliance increased (p(trend) < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Among women initiating drug therapy for osteoporosis, better compliance is associated with reduced risk of fracture.

Compliance with drug therapy for postmenopausal osteoporosis.

INTRODUCTION: Patient compliance with pharmacotherapy for osteoporosis is typically poor in clinical practice; less frequent dosing with bisphosphonates may improve compliance. METHODS: Using data from 49 US health plans, we identified all women aged >/=45 years with osteoporosis who initiated therapy with a bisphosphonate, calcitonin, estrogen, or raloxifene. Compliance was examined alternatively in terms of incidence of adherence failure (medication days <80% of possible) and persistence failure (gap in therapy >/=90 days), and was compared across treatment groups using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The study population included 18,822 women, 48% of whom initiated weekly bisphosphonate therapy. Overall risk of adherence failure was 47% at 3 months, 70% at 1 year, and 84% at 3 years. Risk of persistence failure was 47% at 1 year, and 77% at 3 years. In multivariate analyses, risk of adherence failure was higher for calcitonin (hazard ratio=2.7 vs weekly bisphosphonate therapy, p<0.01), but comparable for all other therapies. Relative risks of persistence failure were generally similar. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately three-quarters of women who initiate osteoporosis drug therapy are non-adherent with treatment within 12 months, and almost 50% have discontinued such therapy by this time. Compliance with weekly bisphosphonate therapy is generally no better than that with osteoporosis medications requiring more frequent dosing.

Medical malpractice among physicians: who will be sued and who will pay?

This paper examines whether a physician's future claims of medical malpractice are predictable from information on the physician's recent claims history, training credentials, practice characteristics, and demographics. Data on the medical malpractice experience of 8,733 Michigan physicians between 1980 and 1989 is analyzed. We find strong evidence of repetition over time regarding who was sued and who paid claims. The worse a physician's malpractice litigation record during 1980-1984, the worse was his record during 1985-1989. Training credentials were also highly predictive of future malpractice experience. Physicians trained at lower ranked medical schools or who went through lower-ranked residency programs faced higher odds of developing adverse malpractice records, even after controlling for their previous litigation record. Growing internet access to information on these characteristics will help inform prospective patients if they wish to avoid physicians likely to be sued and likely to make payments in the future for malpractice.

Childhood vaccination against pneumococcal otitis media and pneumonia: an analysis of benefits and costs.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the economic benefits and costs of routine vaccination of children younger than 5 years of age against pneumococcal otitis media and pneumonia with the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. STUDY DESIGN: A decision-analytic model of the cumulative numbers of cases and costs to age 10 years of acute otitis media (AOM), tympanostomy and related procedures (TRP), and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children who either did or did not receive the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Seven hypothetical cohorts of 1000 children, stratified by age at initial vaccination, were followed. Outcome measures include costs of vaccination, cumulative numbers of cases of AOM, TRP, and CAP to age 10 years, and related disease costs, including medical treatment and parental work loss. RESULTS: Routine vaccination of 1000 children against pneumococcal infection would cost between $57,000 and $226,000, depending on age (the recommended number of doses varies by age at initial vaccination). Acute otitis media, TRP, and CAP to age 10 years would decline by 139 to 330, 8 to 22, and 15 to 30 cases, respectively; costs of medical treatment and work loss would correspondingly decline by $56,000 to $138,000. Expected net economic benefits (benefits minus costs) of vaccination against pneumococcal otitis media and pneumonia range from -$88,000 to $15,000 for children less than 2 years of age, and from -$1,000 to $31,000 for those aged 2 to 5 years at vaccination. CONCLUSION: Routine vaccination against pneumococcal otitis media and pneumonia appears to be cost-increasing for children less than 2 years of age who require multiple doses, but cost-saving for children aged 2 to 5 years who would require only a single dose of the vaccine.