HERMES-24 Score Derivation and Validation for Simple and Robust Outcome Prediction After Large Vessel Occlusion Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians need simple and highly predictive prognostic scores to assist practical decision-making. We aimed to develop a simple outcome prediction score applied 24 hours after anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke treatment with endovascular thrombectomy and validate it in patients treated both with and without endovascular thrombectomy. METHODS: Using the HERMES (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) collaboration data set (n=1764), patients in the endovascular thrombectomy arm were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n=430) and a validation cohort (n=441). From a set of candidate predictors, logistic regression modeling using forward variable selection was used to select a model that was both parsimonious and highly predictive for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤2 at 90 days. The score was validated in validation cohort, control arm (n=893), and external validation cohorts from the ESCAPE-NA1 (Efficacy and Safety of Nerinetide for the Treatment of Acute Ischaemic Stroke; n=1066) and INTERRSeCT (Identifying New Approaches to Optimize Thrombus Characterization for Predicting Early Recanalization and Reperfusion With IV Alteplase and Other Treatments Using Serial CT Angiography; n=614). RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, we selected 2 significant predictors of mRS ≤2 (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours and age [ß-coefficient, 0.34 and 0.06]) and derived the HERMES-24 score: age (years)/10+National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours. The HERMES-24 score was highly predictive for mRS ≤2 (c-statistic 0.907 [95% CI, 0.879-0.935]) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort and the control arm, the HERMES-24 score predicts mRS ≤2 (c-statistic, 0.914 [95% CI, 0.886-0.944] and 0.909 [95% CI, 0.887-0.930]). Observed provability of mRS ≤2 ranged between 3.1% and 3.4% when HERMES-24 score ≥25, while it ranged between 90.6% and 93.0% when HERMES-24 score <10 in the derivation cohort, validation cohort, and control arm. The HERMES-24 score also showed c-statistics of 0.894 and 0.889 for mRS ≤2 in the ESCAPE-NA1 and INTERRSeCT populations. CONCLUSIONS: The post-treatment HERMES-24 score is a simple validated score that predicts a 3-month outcome after anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke regardless of intervention, which helps prognostic discussion with families on day 2.

Admission systolic blood pressure and effect of endovascular treatment in patients with ischaemic stroke: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for ischaemic stroke treatment recommend a strict, but arbitrary, upper threshold of 185/110 mm Hg for blood pressure before endovascular thrombectomy. Nevertheless, whether admission blood pressure influences the effect of endovascular thrombectomy on outcome remains unknown. Our aim was to study the influence of admission systolic blood pressure (SBP) on functional outcome and on the effect of endovascular thrombectomy. METHODS: We used individual patient data from seven randomised controlled trials (MR CLEAN, ESCAPE, EXTEND-IA, SWIFT PRIME, REVASCAT, PISTE, and THRACE) that randomly assigned patients with anterior circulation ischaemic stroke to endovascular thrombectomy (predominantly using stent retrievers) or standard medical therapy (control) between June 1, 2010, and April 30, 2015. We included all patients for whom SBP data were available at hospital admission. The primary outcome was functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 90 days. We assessed the association of SBP with outcome in both the endovascular thrombectomy group and the control group using multilevel regression analysis and tested for non-linearity and for interaction between SBP and effect of endovascular thrombectomy, taking into account treatment with intravenous thrombolysis. FINDINGS: We included 1753 patients (867 assigned to endovascular thrombectomy, 886 assigned to control) after excluding 11 patients for whom SBP data were missing. We found a non-linear association between SBP and functional outcome with an inflection point at 140 mm Hg (732 [42%] of 1753 patients had SBP <140 mm Hg and 1021 [58%] had SBP ≥140 mm Hg). Among patients with SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, admission SBP was associated with worse functional outcome (adjusted common odds ratio [acOR] 0·86 per 10 mm Hg SBP increase; 95% CI 0·81-0·91). We found no association between SBP and functional outcome in patients with SBP less than 140 mm Hg (acOR 0·97 per 10 mm Hg SBP decrease, 95% CI 0·88-1·05). There was no significant interaction between SBP and effect of endovascular thrombectomy on functional outcome (p=0·96). INTERPRETATION: In our meta-analysis, high admission SBP was associated with worse functional outcome after stroke, but SBP did not seem to negate the effect of endovascular thrombectomy. This finding suggests that admission SBP should not form the basis for decisions to withhold or delay endovascular thrombectomy for ischaemic stroke, but randomised trials are needed to further investigate this possibility. FUNDING: Medtronic.

Significance of Baseline Ischemic Core Volume on Stroke Outcome After Endovascular Therapy in Patients Age ≥75 Years: A Pooled Analysis of Individual Patient Data From 7 Trials.

BACKGROUND: Age and infarct volume are strong predictors of outcome in patients with ischemic stroke who underwent endovascular therapy (EVT). We aimed to investigate the impact of ischemic core volume (ICV) on stroke outcome after EVT in elderly. METHODS: Using the HERMES (Highly Effective Reperfusion Using Multiple Endovascular Devices) collaboration, a patient-level meta-analysis of 7 randomized trials in which patients were enrolled from December 2010 to April 2015) dataset, we categorized patients into those aged <75 and ≥75 years. ICV was calculated on computed tomography perfusion or magnetic resonance diffusion-weighted imaging. The association between ICV and the benefit of EVT over best medical treatment on outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] at 90 days) and an ICV threshold for high likelihood (≥90%) of very poor outcome (mRS score ≥5) after EVT were investigated. RESULTS: A total of 899 patients who had baseline ICV data, 247 patients aged ≥75 years, of which 118 were randomized in the EVT arm. Patients aged ≥75 years required smaller ICV to achieve mRS score ≤3 than those aged <75 years in the EVT arm (median 10.7 mL versus 23.9 mL, P<0.001). In patients aged ≥75 years, modeling of outcome in both treatment arms revealed potential loss of effect for EVT at ICV of ≥50 mL or ≥85 mL for achieving mRS score ≤3 or ≤4, respectively. Treatment effect of EVT was significant in ICV <50 mL for mRS ≤3 (odds ratio 2.38, 95% confidence interval 1.35-4.22). ICV ≥132 mL was a threshold for high likelihood of very poor outcome after EVT. However, EVT still predicted at least 30% rate of mRS ≤3 at 150 mL ICV if near-complete or complete reperfusion was achieved. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline ICV has an impact on stroke outcome after EVT in the elderly, but elderly patients with large ICV may still benefit from EVT if near-complete or complete reperfusion is achieved. Young patients seem to benefit from EVT regardless of ICV status.

Effects of Antiplatelet Therapy After Stroke Caused by Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Extended Follow-up of the RESTART Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The Restart or Stop Antithrombotics Randomized Trial (RESTART) found that antiplatelet therapy appeared to be safe up to 5 years after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) that had occurred during antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy. Objectives: To monitor adherence, increase duration of follow-up, and improve precision of estimates of the effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent ICH and major vascular events. Design, Setting and Participants: From May 22, 2013, through May 31, 2018, this prospective, open, blinded end point, parallel-group randomized clinical trial studied 537 participants at 122 hospitals in the UK. Participants were individuals 18 years or older who had taken antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed ICH, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 hours. After initial follow-up ended on November 30, 2018, annual follow-up was extended until November 30, 2020, for a median of 3.0 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.0-5.0 years) for the trial cohort. Interventions: Computerized randomization that incorporated minimization allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Participants were followed up for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic ICH) and secondary outcomes (all major vascular events) for up to 7 years. Data from all randomized participants were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimization covariates. Results: A total of 537 patients (median age, 76.0 years; IQR, 69.0-82.0 years; 360 [67.0%] male; median time after ICH onset, 76.0 days; IQR, 29.0-146.0 days) were randomly allocated to start (n = 268) or avoid (n = 269 [1 withdrew]) antiplatelet therapy. The primary outcome of recurrent ICH affected 22 of 268 participants (8.2%) allocated to antiplatelet therapy compared with 25 of 268 participants (9.3%) allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.49-1.55; P = .64). A major vascular event affected 72 participants (26.8%) allocated to antiplatelet therapy compared with 87 participants (32.5%) allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.58-1.08; P = .14). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with ICH who had previously taken antithrombotic therapy, this study found no statistically significant effect of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent ICH or all major vascular events. These findings provide physicians with some reassurance about the use of antiplatelet therapy after ICH if indicated for secondary prevention of major vascular events. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN71907627.

The cost of providing mechanical thrombectomy in the UK NHS: a micro-costing study.

INTRODUCTION: The clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for the treatment of large vessel occlusion stroke is well established, but uncertainty remains around the true cost of delivering this treatment within the NHS. The aim of this study was to establish the cost of providing MT within the hyperacute phase of care and to explore differences in resources used and costs across different neuroscience centres in the UK. METHOD: This was a multicentre retrospective study using micro-costing methods to enable a precise assessment of the costs of MT from an NHS perspective. Data on resources used and their costs were collected from five UK neuroscience centres between 2015 and 2018. RESULTS: Data were collected on 310 patients with acute ischaemic stroke treated with MT. The mean total cost of providing MT and inpatient care within 24 hours was £10,846 (95% confidence interval (CI) 10,527-11,165) per patient. The main driver of cost was MT procedure costs, accounting for 73% (£7,943; 95% CI 7,649-8,237) of the total 24-hour cost. Costs were higher for patients treated under general anaesthesia (£11,048; standard deviation (SD) 2,654) than for local anaesthesia (£9,978; SD 2,654), mean difference £1,070 (95% CI 381-1,759; p=0.003); admission to an intensive care unit (ICU; £12,212; SD 3,028) against for admission elsewhere (£10,179; SD 2,415), mean difference £2,032 (95% CI 1,345-2,719; p<0001).The mean cost within 72 hours was £12,440 (95% CI 10,628-14,252). The total costs for the duration of inpatient care before discharge from a thrombectomy centre was £14,362 (95% CI 13,603-15,122). CONCLUSIONS: Major factors contributing to costs of MT for stroke include consumables and staff for intervention, use of general anaesthesia and ICU admissions. These findings can inform the reimbursement, provision and strategic planning of stroke services and aid future economic evaluations.

A scoping review of pre-hospital technology to assist ambulance personnel with patient diagnosis or stratification during the emergency assessment of suspected stroke.

BACKGROUND: Pre-hospital identification of key subgroups within the suspected stroke population could reduce delays to emergency treatment. We aimed to identify and describe technology with existing proof of concept for diagnosis or stratification of patients in the pre-hospital setting. METHODS: A systematic electronic search of published literature (from 01/01/2000 to 06/06/2019) was conducted in five bibliographic databases. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility of studies or study protocols describing diagnostic/stratification tests (portable imaging/biomarkers) or technology facilitating diagnosis/stratification (telemedicine) used by ambulance personnel during the assessment of suspected stroke. Eligible descriptions required use of tests or technology during the actual assessment of suspected stroke to provide information directly to ambulance personnel in the pre-hospital setting. Due to study, intervention and setting heterogeneity there was no attempt at meta-analysis. RESULTS: 2887 articles were screened for eligibility, 19 of which were retained. Blood biomarker studies (n = 2) were protocols of prospective diagnostic accuracy studies, one examining purines and the other a panel of known and novel biomarkers for identifying stroke sub-types (versus mimic). No data were yet available on diagnostic accuracy or patient health outcomes. Portable imaging studies (n = 2) reported that an infrared screening device for detecting haemorrhages yielded moderate sensitivity and poor specificity in a small study, whilst a dry-EEG study to detect large vessel occlusion in ischaemic stroke has not yet reported results. Fifteen evaluations of pre-hospital telemedicine were identified (12 observational and 3 controlled comparisons) which all involved transmission of stroke assessment data from the pre-hospital setting to the hospital. Diagnosis was generally comparable with hospital diagnosis and most telemedicine systems reduced time-to-treatment; however, it is unknown whether this time saving translated into more favourable clinical outcomes. Telemedicine systems were deemed acceptable by clinicians. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-hospital technologies to identify clinically important subgroups amongst the suspected stroke population are in development but insufficient evidence precludes recommendations about routine use in the pre-hospital setting. Multi-centre diagnostic accuracy studies and clinical utility trials combining promising technologies are warranted.

Association of follow-up infarct volume with functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: a pooled analysis of seven randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: Follow-up infarct volume (FIV) has been recommended as an early indicator of treatment efficacy in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Questions remain about the optimal imaging approach for FIV measurement. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of FIV with 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score and investigate its dependency on acquisition time and modality. METHODS: Data of seven trials were pooled. FIV was assessed on follow-up (12 hours to 2 weeks) CT or MRI. Infarct location was defined as laterality and involvement of the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score regions. Relative quality and strength of multivariable regression models of the association between FIV and functional outcome were assessed. Dependency of imaging modality and acquisition time (≤48 hours vs >48 hours) was evaluated. RESULTS: Of 1665 included patients, 83% were imaged with CT. Median FIV was 41 mL (IQR 14-120). A large FIV was associated with worse functional outcome (OR=0.88(95% CI 0.87 to 0.89) per 10 mL) in adjusted analysis. A model including FIV, location, and hemorrhage type best predicted mRS score. FIV of ≥133 mL was highly specific for unfavorable outcome. FIV was equally strongly associated with mRS score for assessment on CT and MRI, even though large differences in volume were present (48 mL (IQR 15-131) vs 22 mL (IQR 8-71), respectively). Associations of both early and late FIV assessments with outcome were similar in strength (ρ=0.60(95% CI 0.56 to 0.64) and ρ=0.55(95% CI 0.50 to 0.60), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with an acute ischemic stroke due to a proximal intracranial occlusion of the anterior circulation, FIV is a strong independent predictor of functional outcome and can be assessed before 48 hours, oneither CT or MRI.

Screening patients with a family history of subarachnoid haemorrhage for intracranial aneurysms: screening uptake, patient characteristics and outcome.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: People with one or more first degree relative affected (FDRA) by aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) are at a higher lifetime risk of an aSAH than those without a family history. Screening may be worthwhile for people with two or more FDRA by aSAH. Little is known about the characteristics of people with a family history of aSAH who undergo screening in clinical practice. METHODS: Observational analysis of consecutive attendances at an intracranial aneurysm screening clinic. RESULTS: Of 96 adults seen, 19 did not have a family history of aSAH and 77 had one or more FDRA by aSAH: 35 had two or more FDRA, 21 had one FDRA plus one or more affected second degree relative and 21 had one FDRA only. In these three respective groups, 29 (83%), 15 (71%) and five (24%) adults underwent screening, of whom six (21%), two (13%) and one (20%) had an aneurysm detected (p=0.5). Of the nine patients with aneurysms, four underwent treatment. Considering other risk factors, adults with two or more FDRA were more likely to be hypertensive (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 10.8; p=0.046) but were no more likely to smoke or drink to excess than adults with one FDRA. Adults who underwent screening were more likely to be hypertensive and drink alcohol to excess (both p=0.03), but were no more likely to smoke than those who were not screened. CONCLUSIONS: In clinical practice, people undergoing intracranial aneurysm screening had stronger family histories of aSAH and they were also more likely to have modifiable risk factors for aSAH.

Endovascular treatment of intracranial unruptured aneurysms: systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature on safety and efficacy.

PURPOSE: To report an updated, systematic review of medical literature from January 2003 to July 2008, on endovascular treatment (EVT) of intracranial unruptured aneurysms (UAs) (a) to assess the morbidity and case fatality rate of EVT of UAs, (b) to understand how bias can affect results, and (c) to estimate the efficacy of EVT by using reported digital subtraction angiographic (DSA) results and clinical follow-up events. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This article was prepared in accordance with the Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The literature was searched by using PubMed and the EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases. Eligibility criteria were (a) explicit procedural mortality and morbidity rates; (b) at least 10 patients; (c) saccular, intradural, nondissecting UAs; (d) original study published in English or French between January 2003 and July 2008; and (e) a methodological quality score higher than 6, according to Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology criteria. End points included procedural mortality and morbidity, defined as a modified Rankin scale score of 3-6 at 1 month, and efficacy, estimated by using immediate and follow-up digital subtraction angiographic results, as well as delayed hemorrhagic events. RESULTS: Seventy-one studies were included. Procedural unfavorable outcome was found in 4.8% (random-effect weighted average; 189 of 5044) of patients (99% confidence interval [CI]: 3.9%, 6.0%). Immediate angiographic results showed satisfactory occlusion in 86.1% (2660 of 3089) of UAs. Recurrences were shown in 321 (24.4%) of 1316 patients followed up for 0.4-3.2 years. Retreatment was performed in 9.1% (random-effect weighted average; 166 of 1699) of patients (99% CI: 6.2%, 13.1%). The annual risk of bleeding after EVT was 0.2% (random-effect weighted average; nine of 1395) of patients (99% CI: 0.1%, 0.3%), but clinical follow-up was short, limited to the first 6 months for 76.7% (n = 1071) of reported patients. CONCLUSION: EVT of UAs can be performed with relative safety. The efficacy of treatment as compared with observation has not been rigorously documented.