Chronic and Acute Effects of Imidacloprid on a Simulated BEEHAVE Honeybee Colony.

Honeybees (Apis mellifera) are important pollinators for wild plants as well as for crops, but honeybee performance is threatened by several stressors including varroa mites, gaps in foraging supply, and pesticides. The consequences of bee colony longtime exposure to multiple stressors are not well understood. The vast number of possible stressor combinations and necessary study duration require research comprising field, laboratory, and simulation experiments. We simulated long-term exposure of a honeybee colony to the insecticide imidacloprid and to varroa mites carrying the deformed wing virus in landscapes with different temporal gaps in resource availability as single stressors and in combinations. Furthermore, we put a strong emphasis on chronic lethal, acute sublethal, and acute lethal effects of imidacloprid on honeybees. We have chosen conservative published values to parameterize our model (e.g., highest reported imidacloprid contamination). As expected, combinations of stressors had a stronger negative effect on bee performance than each single stressor alone, and effect sizes were larger after 3 years of exposure than after the first year. Imidacloprid-caused reduction in bee performance was almost exclusively due to chronic lethal effects because the thresholds for acute effects were rarely met in simulations. In addition, honeybee colony extinctions were observed by the last day of the first year but more pronounced on the last days of the second and third simulation year. In conclusion, our study highlights the need for more long-term studies on chronic lethal effects of pesticides on honeybees. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:2318-2327. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Revisiting Theron's hypothesis on the origin of fairy circles after four decades: Euphorbias are not the cause.

BACKGROUND: The Euphorbia hypothesis on the origin of fairy circles (FCs) in Namibia dates back to 1979. It proposes that the remains of decaying shrubs would induce an allelopathic interaction with the grasses and thereby cause bare-soil FCs. Here, we investigated this hypothesis based on revisiting marked Euphorbias after four decades, comparing the typical size distribution of dead Euphorbia damarana and FCs, and analyzing the spatial patterns of Euphorbias and FCs within the same drone-mapped study plots in three regions of Namibia. RESULTS: We found four dead Euphorbias in the southern Giribes that were marked by G.K. Theron about 40 years ago. Those locations did not develop into FCs over this time span. However, for the four dead Euphorbias, we provide photographic evidence that grass tufts were growing at the metal pins of those decaying shrubs, agreeing with previous research findings that the soil taken from beneath dead E. damarana shrubs was stimulating rather than inhibiting the growth of grasses. In the Giribes, there were very large FCs that ranged in diameter from 13.0 to 19.1 m. By contrast, the measured dead E. damarana, including the largest plants that we could find, ranged in size only between 4.2 and 11.7 m. At Brandberg, we found particularly small FCs with diameters between 2.4 and 2.7 m but the dead E. damarana, including the smallest dead shrubs in the area, ranged in size between 4.1 and 7.2 m. Hence given these size mismatches, the decaying Euphorbias cannot induce such observed FCs in the two regions. Spatial patterns of E. damarana and FCs in the two regions Giribes and Brandberg, as well as of E. gummifera and FCs near Garub, showed a strong mismatch within the same habitat: in four out of five plots the patterns differed significantly. FCs were regularly distributed while Euphorbias were predominantly clustered. CONCLUSIONS: We reject the Euphorbia hypothesis based on the fact that grass growth was not prevented under decaying shrubs, the size of dead Euphorbias cannot explain the size of observed FCs and the spatial distribution of Euphorbias cannot cause the specific pattern signature of FCs.

Lack of astrocytes hinders parenchymal oligodendrocyte precursor cells from reaching a myelinating state in osmolyte-induced demyelination.

Demyelinated lesions in human pons observed after osmotic shifts in serum have been referred to as central pontine myelinolysis (CPM). Astrocytic damage, which is prominent in neuroinflammatory diseases like neuromyelitis optica (NMO) and multiple sclerosis (MS), is considered the primary event during formation of CPM lesions. Although more data on the effects of astrocyte-derived factors on oligodendrocyte precursor cells (OPCs) and remyelination are emerging, still little is known about remyelination of lesions with primary astrocytic loss. In autopsy tissue from patients with CPM as well as in an experimental model, we were able to characterize OPC activation and differentiation. Injections of the thymidine-analogue BrdU traced the maturation of OPCs activated in early astrocyte-depleted lesions. We observed rapid activation of the parenchymal NG2+ OPC reservoir in experimental astrocyte-depleted demyelinated lesions, leading to extensive OPC proliferation. One week after lesion initiation, most parenchyma-derived OPCs expressed breast carcinoma amplified sequence-1 (BCAS1), indicating the transition into a pre-myelinating state. Cells derived from this early parenchymal response often presented a dysfunctional morphology with condensed cytoplasm and few extending processes, and were only sparsely detected among myelin-producing or mature oligodendrocytes. Correspondingly, early stages of human CPM lesions also showed reduced astrocyte numbers and non-myelinating BCAS1+ oligodendrocytes with dysfunctional morphology. In the rat model, neural stem cells (NSCs) located in the subventricular zone (SVZ) were activated while the lesion was already partially repopulated with OPCs, giving rise to nestin+ progenitors that generated oligodendroglial lineage cells in the lesion, which was successively repopulated with astrocytes and remyelinated. These nestin+ stem cell-derived progenitors were absent in human CPM cases, which may have contributed to the inefficient lesion repair. The present study points to the importance of astrocyte-oligodendrocyte interactions for remyelination, highlighting the necessity to further determine the impact of astrocyte dysfunction on remyelination inefficiency in demyelinating disorders including MS.

EFForTS-LGraf: A landscape generator for creating smallholder-driven land-use mosaics.

Spatially-explicit simulation models are commonly used to study complex ecological and socio-economic research questions. Often these models depend on detailed input data, such as initial land-cover maps to set up model simulations. Here we present the landscape generator EFFortS-LGraf that provides artificially-generated land-use maps of agricultural landscapes shaped by small-scale farms. EFForTS-LGraf is a process-based landscape generator that explicitly incorporates the human dimension of land-use change. The model generates roads and villages that consist of smallholder farming households. These smallholders use different establishment strategies to create fields in their close vicinity. Crop types are distributed to these fields based on crop fractions and specialization levels. EFForTS-LGraf model parameters such as household area or field size frequency distributions can be derived from household surveys or geospatial data. This can be an advantage over the abstract parameters of neutral landscape generators. We tested the model using oil palm and rubber farming in Indonesia as a case study and validated the artificially-generated maps against classified satellite images. Our results show that EFForTS-LGraf is able to generate realistic land-cover maps with properties that lie within the boundaries of landscapes from classified satellite images. An applied simulation experiment on landscape-level effects of increasing household area and crop specialization revealed that larger households with higher specialization levels led to spatially more homogeneous and less scattered crop type distributions and reduced edge area proportion. Thus, EFForTS-LGraf can be applied both to generate maps as inputs for simulation modelling and as a stand-alone tool for specific landscape-scale analyses in the context of ecological-economic studies of smallholder farming systems.

Dietary Intervention with Oatmeal in Patients with uncontrolled Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus - A Crossover Study.

BACKGROUND: In a pilot study, we evaluated the efficacy of two days of oatmeal on insulin resistance and glucose metabolism and found a marked decrease of insulin requirements. The most important shortcoming of that study was that the interventions were not isocaloric (diabetes adapted diet: 1500 kcal/d vs. oatmeal 1100 kcal/d). To address these drawbacks we designed the OatMeal And Insulin Resistance (OMA-IR) study. METHODS: The study was a randomized, open label crossover dietary intervention study with consecutive inclusion of 15 patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes. The intervention comprised two days of oatmeal on days 3 and 4 of a 5 days hospital stay. During the control period, patients received a diabetes mellitus adapted diet only. The primary endpoint was the daily insulin requirement and glycemic control. RESULTS: Upon oatmeal treatment, the required insulin dose could be significantly reduced on the third and fourth day as compared to the second day of inpatient stay (82.0±30.3 and 69.9±29.9IU versus 112±36.2IU;P<0.001). During control treatment, insulin requirement did not change. There were no significant differences in the changes of mean blood glucose or fasting glucose between both treatments. HbA1c was lower four weeks after the oatmeal intervention. CONCLUSION: In this crossover study, two days of oatmeal intervention allowed a highly significant reduction of required daily insulin doses while maintaining adequate metabolic control as compared to a diabetes adapted diet only. The beneficial effects of the intervention might last for several weeks as shown by the lower HbA1c four weeks after the intervention.

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as exploratory tools which can advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the trade-offs and synergies of ecological and economic functions in tropical landscapes.

A review of the ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, using forests as a reference system.

Oil palm plantations have expanded rapidly in recent decades. This large-scale land-use change has had great ecological, economic, and social impacts on both the areas converted to oil palm and their surroundings. However, research on the impacts of oil palm cultivation is scattered and patchy, and no clear overview exists. We address this gap through a systematic and comprehensive literature review of all ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, including several (genetic, medicinal and ornamental resources, information functions) not included in previous systematic reviews. We compare ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations to those in forests, as the conversion of forest to oil palm is prevalent in the tropics. We find that oil palm plantations generally have reduced ecosystem functioning compared to forests: 11 out of 14 ecosystem functions show a net decrease in level of function. Some functions show decreases with potentially irreversible global impacts (e.g. reductions in gas and climate regulation, habitat and nursery functions, genetic resources, medicinal resources, and information functions). The most serious impacts occur when forest is cleared to establish new plantations, and immediately afterwards, especially on peat soils. To variable degrees, specific plantation management measures can prevent or reduce losses of some ecosystem functions (e.g. avoid illegal land clearing via fire, avoid draining of peat, use of integrated pest management, use of cover crops, mulch, and compost) and we highlight synergistic mitigation measures that can improve multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously. The only ecosystem function which increases in oil palm plantations is, unsurprisingly, the production of marketable goods. Our review highlights numerous research gaps. In particular, there are significant gaps with respect to socio-cultural information functions. Further, there is a need for more empirical data on the importance of spatial and temporal scales, such as differences among plantations in different environments, of different sizes, and of different ages, as our review has identified examples where ecosystem functions vary spatially and temporally. Finally, more research is needed on developing management practices that can offset the losses of ecosystem functions. Our findings should stimulate research to address the identified gaps, and provide a foundation for more systematic research and discussion on ways to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the positive impacts of oil palm cultivation.

Ecological and socio-economic functions across tropical land use systems after rainforest conversion.

Tropical lowland rainforests are increasingly threatened by the expansion of agriculture and the extraction of natural resources. In Jambi Province, Indonesia, the interdisciplinary EFForTS project focuses on the ecological and socio-economic dimensions of rainforest conversion to jungle rubber agroforests and monoculture plantations of rubber and oil palm. Our data confirm that rainforest transformation and land use intensification lead to substantial losses in biodiversity and related ecosystem functions, such as decreased above- and below-ground carbon stocks. Owing to rapid step-wise transformation from forests to agroforests to monoculture plantations and renewal of each plantation type every few decades, the converted land use systems are continuously dynamic, thus hampering the adaptation of animal and plant communities. On the other hand, agricultural rainforest transformation systems provide increased income and access to education, especially for migrant smallholders. Jungle rubber and rubber monocultures are associated with higher financial land productivity but lower financial labour productivity compared to oil palm, which influences crop choice: smallholders that are labour-scarce would prefer oil palm while land-scarce smallholders would prefer rubber. Collecting long-term data in an interdisciplinary context enables us to provide decision-makers and stakeholders with scientific insights to facilitate the reconciliation between economic interests and ecological sustainability in tropical agricultural landscapes.

Discovery of fairy circles in Australia supports self-organization theory.

Vegetation gap patterns in arid grasslands, such as the "fairy circles" of Namibia, are one of nature's greatest mysteries and subject to a lively debate on their origin. They are characterized by small-scale hexagonal ordering of circular bare-soil gaps that persists uniformly in the landscape scale to form a homogeneous distribution. Pattern-formation theory predicts that such highly ordered gap patterns should be found also in other water-limited systems across the globe, even if the mechanisms of their formation are different. Here we report that so far unknown fairy circles with the same spatial structure exist 10,000 km away from Namibia in the remote outback of Australia. Combining fieldwork, remote sensing, spatial pattern analysis, and process-based mathematical modeling, we demonstrate that these patterns emerge by self-organization, with no correlation with termite activity; the driving mechanism is a positive biomass-water feedback associated with water runoff and biomass-dependent infiltration rates. The remarkable match between the patterns of Australian and Namibian fairy circles and model results indicate that both patterns emerge from a nonuniform stationary instability, supporting a central universality principle of pattern-formation theory. Applied to the context of dryland vegetation, this principle predicts that different systems that go through the same instability type will show similar vegetation patterns even if the feedback mechanisms and resulting soil-water distributions are different, as we indeed found by comparing the Australian and the Namibian fairy-circle ecosystems. These results suggest that biomass-water feedbacks and resultant vegetation gap patterns are likely more common in remote drylands than is currently known.

Neighborhood diversity of large trees shows independent species patterns in a mixed dipterocarp forest in Sri Lanka.

Interactions among neighboring individuals influence plant performance and should create spatial patterns in local community structure. In order to assess the role of large trees in generating spatial patterns in local species richness, we used the individual species-area relationship (ISAR) to evaluate the species richness of trees of different size classes (and dead trees) in circular neighborhoods with varying radius around large trees of different focal species. To reveal signals of species interactions, we compared the ISAR function of the individuals of focal species with that of randomly selected nearby locations. We expected that large trees should strongly affect the community structure of smaller trees in their neighborhood, but that these effects should fade away with increasing size class. Unexpectedly, we found that only few focal species showed signals of species interactions with trees of the different size classes and that this was less likely for less abundant focal species. However, the few and relatively weak departures from independence were consistent with expectations of the effect of competition for space and the dispersal syndrome on spatial patterns. A noisy signal of competition for space found for large trees built up gradually with increasing life stage; it was not yet present for large saplings but detectable for intermediates. Additionally, focal species with animal-dispersed seeds showed higher species richness in their neighborhood than those with gravity- and gyration-dispersed seeds. Our analysis across the entire ontogeny from recruits to large trees supports the hypothesis that stochastic effects dilute deterministic species interactions in highly diverse communities. Stochastic dilution is a consequence of the stochastic geometry of biodiversity in species-rich communities where the identities of the nearest neighbors of a given plant are largely unpredictable. While the outcome of local species interactions is governed for each plant by deterministic fitness and niche differences, the large variability of competitors causes also a large variability in the outcomes of interactions and does not allow for strong directed responses at the species level. Collectively, our results highlight the critical effect of the stochastic geometry of biodiversity in structuring local spatial patterns of tropical forest diversity.

Spatial scales of interactions among bacteria and between bacteria and the leaf surface.

Microbial life on plant leaves is characterized by a multitude of interactions between leaf colonizers and their environment. While the existence of many of these interactions has been confirmed, their spatial scale or reach often remained unknown. In this study, we applied spatial point pattern analysis to 244 distribution patterns of Pantoea agglomerans and Pseudomonas syringae on bean leaves. The results showed that bacterial colonizers of leaves interact with their environment at different spatial scales. Interactions among bacteria were often confined to small spatial scales up to 5-20 µm, compared to interactions between bacteria and leaf surface structures such as trichomes which could be observed in excess of 100 µm. Spatial point-pattern analyses prove a comprehensive tool to determine the different spatial scales of bacterial interactions on plant leaves and will help microbiologists to better understand the interplay between these interactions.

Effect of spatial processes and topography on structuring species assemblages in a Sri Lankan dipterocarp forest.

Niche and neutral theories emphasize different processes that contribute to the maintenance of species diversity and should leave different spatial structures in species assemblages. In this study we used variation partitioning in combination with distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps and habitat variables to determine the relative importance of the effects of pure habitat, pure spatial, and spatially structured habitat processes on the spatial distribution of tree species composition and richness in a 25-ha tropical rain forest of Sinharaja/Sri Lanka. We analyzed the contribution of those components at three spatial scales (10 m, 20 m, and 50 m) for all trees and the three life stages: recruits, juveniles, and adults. At the 10-m scale, 80% of the variation in species composition remained unexplained for recruits and adults, but only 55% for juveniles. With increasingly broader scales these figures were strongly reduced, mainly by an increasing contribution of the spatially structured habitat component, which explained 4-30%, 20-47%, and 8-35% of variation in species composition for recruits, juveniles, and adults, respectively. The pure spatial component was most important at the 20-m scale and reached 20%, 32%, and 23% for recruits, juveniles, and adults, respectively. The spatially structured habitat component described variability at broader scales than the pure spatial component. Our results suggest that stochastic processes and spatially structuring processes of community dynamics, such as dispersal limitation and habitat association, contributed jointly to explain species composition and richness at the Sinharaja forest, but their relative importance changed with scale and life stage. Species assembly at the local scale was more strongly impacted by stochasticity, whereas the signal of habitat was stronger at the 50-m scale where plant-scale stochasticity is averaged out. Recent research points to an emerging consensus on the relative contribution of stochasticity, habitat, and spatial processes in governing community assembly, but how these components change with life stage, and how this is influenced by sample size, remains to be explored.

Production and robustness of a Cacao agroecosystem: effects of two contrasting types of management strategies.

Ecological intensification, i.e. relying on ecological processes to replace chemical inputs, is often presented as the ideal alternative to conventional farming based on an intensive use of chemicals. It is said to both maintain high yield and provide more robustness to the agroecosystem. However few studies compared the two types of management with respect to their consequences for production and robustness toward perturbation. In this study our aim is to assess productive performance and robustness toward diverse perturbations of a Cacao agroecosystem managed with two contrasting groups of strategies: one group of strategies relying on a high level of pesticides and a second relying on low levels of pesticides. We conducted this study using a dynamical model of a Cacao agroecosystem that includes Cacao production dynamics, and dynamics of three insects: a pest (the Cacao Pod Borer, Conopomorpha cramerella) and two characteristic but unspecified beneficial insects (a pollinator of Cacao and a parasitoid of the Cacao Pod Borer). Our results showed two opposite behaviors of the Cacao agroecosystem depending on its management, i.e. an agroecosystem relying on a high input of pesticides and showing low ecosystem functioning and an agroecosystem with low inputs, relying on a high functioning of the ecosystem. From the production point of view, no type of management clearly outclassed the other and their ranking depended on the type of pesticide used. From the robustness point of view, the two types of managements performed differently when subjected to different types of perturbations. Ecologically intensive systems were more robust to pest outbreaks and perturbations related to pesticide characteristics while chemically intensive systems were more robust to Cacao production and management-related perturbation.

Walter's two-layer hypothesis revisited: back to the roots!

Walter (Jahrb Wiss Bot 87:750-860, 1939) proposed a two-layer hypothesis, an equilibrium explanation for coexistence of savanna trees and grasses. This hypothesis relies on vertical niche partitioning and assumed that grasses are more water-use efficient than trees and use subsurface water while trees also have access to deeper water sources. Thus, in open savannas, grasses were predicted to predominate because of their water use efficiency and access to subsurface water. This hypothesis has been a prominent part of the savanna literature since first proposed. We review the literature on Walter's hypothesis and reconsider his original intentions. Walter intended this hypothesis to be restricted to dry savannas. In his opinion, mesic and humid savannas were controlled by biotic factors and disturbances. We surveyed the global savanna literature for records of vertical niche partitioning by grasses and trees. We find that, within the scope of Walter's original intentions, this hypothesis works remarkably well, and in some cases is appropriate for deserts as well as for dry temperate systems and even some mesic savannas.

Interaction between ungulates and bruchid beetles and its effect on Acacia trees: modeling the costs and benefits of seed dispersal to plant demography.

Integrative studies of plant-animal interactions that incorporate the multiple effects of interactions are important for discerning the importance of each factor within the population dynamics of a plant species. The low regeneration capacity of many Acacia species in arid savannas is a consequence of a combination of reduction in seed dispersal and high seed predation. Here we studied how ungulates (acting as both seed dispersers and herbivores) and bruchid beetles (post-dispersal seed predators) modulate the population dynamics of A. raddiana, a keystone species in the Middle East. We developed two simulation models of plant demography: the first included seed ingestion by ungulates and seed predation by bruchids, whereas the second model additionally incorporated herbivory by ungulates. We also included the interacting effects of seed removal and body mass, because larger ungulates destroy proportionally fewer seeds and enhance seed germination. Simulations showed that the negative effect of seed predation on acacia population size was compensated for by the positive effect of seed ingestion at 50 and 30% seed removal under scenarios with and without herbivory, respectively. Smaller ungulates (e.g., <35 kg) must necessarily remove tenfold more seeds than larger ungulates (e.g., >250 kg) to compensate for the negative effect of seed predation. Seedling proportion increased with seed removal in the model with herbivory. Managing and restoring acacia seed dispersers is key to conserving acacia populations, because low-to-medium seed removal could quickly restore their regeneration capacity.

Resource pulses, species interactions, and diversity maintenance in arid and semi-arid environments.

Arid environments are characterized by limited and variable rainfall that supplies resources in pulses. Resource pulsing is a special form of environmental variation, and the general theory of coexistence in variable environments suggests specific mechanisms by which rainfall variability might contribute to the maintenance of high species diversity in arid ecosystems. In this review, we discuss physiological, morphological, and life-history traits that facilitate plant survival and growth in strongly water-limited variable environments, outlining how species differences in these traits may promote diversity. Our analysis emphasizes that the variability of pulsed environments does not reduce the importance of species interactions in structuring communities, but instead provides axes of ecological differentiation between species that facilitate their coexistence. Pulses of rainfall also influence higher trophic levels and entire food webs. Better understanding of how rainfall affects the diversity, species composition, and dynamics of arid environments can contribute to solving environmental problems stemming from land use and global climate change.

Minimum recruitment frequency in plants with episodic recruitment.

There is concern about the lack of recruitment of Acacia trees in the Negev desert of Israel. We have developed three models to estimate the frequency of recruitment necessary for long-term population survival (i.e. positive average population growth for 1,000 years and < 10% probability of extinction). Two models assume purely episodic recruitment based on the general notion that recruitment in arid environments is highly episodic. They differ in that the deterministic model investigates average dynamics while the stochastic model does not. Studies indicating that recruitment episodes in arid environments have been overemphasized motivated the development of the third model. This semi-stochastic model simulates a mixture of continuous and episodic recruitment. Model analysis was done analytically for the deterministic model and via running model simulations for the stochastic and semi-stochastic models. The deterministic and stochastic models predict that, on average, 2.2 and 3.7 recruitment events per century, respectively, are necessary to sustain the population. According to the semi-stochastic model, 1.6 large recruitment events per century and an annual probability of 50% that a small recruitment event occurs are needed. A consequence of purely episodic recruitment is that all recruitment episodes produce extremely large numbers of recruits (i.e. at odds with field observations), an evaluation that holds even when considering that rare events must be large. Thus, the semi-stochastic model appears to be the most realistic model. Comparing the prediction of the semi-stochastic model to field observations in the Negev desert shows that the absence of observations of extremely large recruitment events is no reason for concern. However, the almost complete absence of small recruitment events is a serious reason for concern. The lack of recruitment may be due to decreased densities of large mammalian herbivores and might be further exacerbated by possible changes in climate, both in terms of average precipitation and the temporal distribution of rain.

Extinction and Spatial Structure in Simulation Models.

Aspects of within-population spatial structure are often neglected in the modeling of population viability. To analyze the relevance of the spatial structure of single populations to population persistence, we compared the results of three models developed for the territorial, arboreal gecko Oedura reticulata: (1) a spatially structured model in which both low and high densities incur mortality costs due to increased movement, (2) a spatially structured model in which the Allee effect is removed, and (3) a spatially unstructured model in which there are no effects of density on mortality. Compared with nonspatial model populations, spatially structured populations exhibited reduced persistence. The Allee effect contributed only a small amount to the reduction in persistence. Increased mortality at high densities caused by difficulties in finding territories markedly reduced persistence in the spatially structured models compared with the density-independent nonspatial model. We argue that the inclusion of elements of spatial structure may considerably influence the estimation of extinction risk in population viability analyses.

RESUMEN: Los aspectos de la estructura espacial dentro de una población son frecuentemente ignorados en el modelado de viabilidad poblacional. Para analizar la importancia de la estructura espacial de poblaciones individuales en la persistencia de una población, comparamos los resultados de tres modelos desarrollados para un gecko arbóreo territorial, Oedura reticulata: (1) un modelo estructurado espacialmente en el cual tanto las densidades bajas como altas incurren en costos de mortalidad debido a un incremento en el movimiento, (2) un modelo estructurado espacialmente en el cual el efecto Allee es removido y (3) un modelo estructurado espacialmente en el cual no hay efectos de la densidad sobre la mortalidad. Comparados con modelos de poblaciones no espaciales, las poblaciones estructuradas espacialmente exhibieron una persistencia reducida. El efecto Allee contribuyóúnicamente con una pequeña proporción de la reducción en la persistencia. El incremento en mortalidad a elevadas densidades debido a la dificultad en encontrar territorios, disminuyó marcadamente la persistencia en los modelos estructurados espacialmente en comparación con los modelos no espaciales, denso-independientes. Argumentamos que la inclusión de los elementos de la estructura espacial puede influenciar considerablemente la estimación de los riesgos de extinción en los análisis de viabilidad poblaciones.