Best Evidence Topic report: Is a CT head required for patients who present to the emergency department with a first seizure?

A short systematic review was undertaken to assess whether adult patients presenting to the ED with a first seizure require a CT head scan to rule out emergent intracranial pathology. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane and Google Scholar databases were searched. Seven relevant papers were identified. Study information, patient characteristics, key results and methodological weaknesses were tabulated. Our results indicate that adults presenting with a first seizure are a high-yield group for CT with a number needed to scan (NNS) between 10 and 19 for findings that would change management in ED, such as haemorrhage, infarction and tumours. We believe that this NNS is sufficiently low to justify the routine use of neuroimaging for these patients in emergency care.

Unemployment and HIV mortality in the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: 1981-2009.

OBJECTIVES: To determine an association between unemployment rates and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mortality in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). DESIGN: Multivariate regression analysis. PARTICIPANTS: OECD member states. SETTING: OECD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: World Health Organization HIV mortality. RESULTS: Between 1981 and 2009, a 1% increase in unemployment was associated with an increase in HIV mortality in the OECD (coefficient for men 0.711, 0.334-1.089, p = 0.0003; coefficient for women 0.166, 0.071-0.260, p = 0.0007). Time lag analysis showed a significant increase in HIV mortality for up to two years after rises in unemployment: p = 0.0008 for men and p = 0.0030 for women in year 1, p = 0.0067 for men and p = 0.0403 for women in year 2. CONCLUSIONS: Rises in unemployment are associated with increased HIV mortality. Economic fiscal policy may impact upon population health. Policy discussions should take into consideration potential health outcomes.

Economic downturns, universal health coverage, and cancer mortality in high-income and middle-income countries, 1990-2010: a longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: The global economic crisis has been associated with increased unemployment and reduced public-sector expenditure on health care (PEH). We estimated the effects of changes in unemployment and PEH on cancer mortality, and identified how universal health coverage (UHC) affected these relationships. METHODS: For this longitudinal analysis, we obtained data from the World Bank and WHO (1990-2010). We aggregated mortality data for breast cancer in women, prostate cancer in men, and colorectal cancers in men and women, which are associated with survival rates that exceed 50%, into a treatable cancer class. We likewise aggregated data for lung and pancreatic cancers, which have 5 year survival rates of less than 10%, into an untreatable cancer class. We used multivariable regression analysis, controlling for country-specific demographics and infrastructure, with time-lag analyses and robustness checks to investigate the relationship between unemployment, PEH, and cancer mortality, with and without UHC. We used trend analysis to project mortality rates, on the basis of trends before the sharp unemployment rise that occurred in many countries from 2008 to 2010, and compared them with observed rates. RESULTS: Data were available for 75 countries, representing 2.106 billion people, for the unemployment analysis and for 79 countries, representing 2.156 billion people, for the PEH analysis. Unemployment rises were significantly associated with an increase in all-cancer mortality and all specific cancers except lung cancer in women. By contrast, untreatable cancer mortality was not significantly linked with changes in unemployment. Lag analyses showed significant associations remained 5 years after unemployment increases for the treatable cancer class. Rerunning analyses, while accounting for UHC status, removed the significant associations. All-cancer, treatable cancer, and specific cancer mortalities significantly decreased as PEH increased. Time-series analysis provided an estimate of more than 40,000 excess deaths due to a subset of treatable cancers from 2008 to 2010, on the basis of 2000-07 trends. Most of these deaths were in non-UHC countries. INTERPRETATION: Unemployment increases are associated with rises in cancer mortality; UHC seems to protect against this effect. PEH increases are associated with reduced cancer mortality. Access to health care could underlie these associations. We estimate that the 2008-10 economic crisis was associated with about 260,000 excess cancer-related deaths in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development alone. FUNDING: None.

Effects of economic crises on population health outcomes in Latin America, 1981-2010: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVES: The relative health effects of changes in unemployment, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita on population health have not been assessed. We aimed to determine the effect of changes in these economic measures on mortality metrics across Latin America. DESIGN: Ecological study. SETTING: Latin America (21 countries), 1981-2010. OUTCOME MEASURES: Uses multivariate regression analysis to assess the effects of changes in unemployment, inflation and GDP per capita on 5 mortality indicators across 21 countries in Latin America, 1981-2010. Country-specific differences in healthcare infrastructure, population structure and population size were controlled for. RESULTS: Between 1981 and 2010, a 1% rise in unemployment was associated with statistically significant deteriorations (p<0.05) in 5 population health outcomes, with largest deteriorations in 1-5 years of age and male adult mortality rates (1.14 and 0.53 rises per 1000 deaths respectively). A 1% rise in inflation rate was associated with significant deteriorations (p<0.05) in 4 population health outcomes, with the largest deterioration in male adult mortality rate (0.0033 rise per 1000 deaths). Lag analysis showed that 5 years after rises in unemployment and inflation, significant deteriorations (p<0.05) occurred in 3 and 5 mortality metrics, respectively. A 1% rise in GDP per capita was associated with no significant deteriorations in population health outcomes either in the short or long term. ß coefficient comparisons indicated that the effect of unemployment increases was substantially greater than that of changes in GDP per capita or inflation. CONCLUSIONS: Rises in unemployment and inflation are associated with long-lasting deteriorations in several population health outcomes. Unemployment exerted much larger effects on health than inflation. In contrast, changes in GDP per capita had almost no association with the explored health outcomes. Contrary to neoclassical development economics, policymakers should prioritise amelioration of unemployment if population health outcomes are to be optimised.

Unemployment, public-sector healthcare expenditure and colorectal cancer mortality in the European Union: 1990-2009.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between unemployment and government spending on healthcare with colorectal cancer mortality. METHODS: Retrospective observational study using data from the World Bank and WHO. Multivariate regression analysis was used, controlling for country-specific differences in infrastructure and demographics. RESULTS: A 1 % increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in colorectal cancer mortality in both men and women [men: coefficient (R) = 0.0995, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.0132-0.1858, P = 0.024; women: R = 0.0742, 95 % CI 0.0160-0.1324, P = 0.013]. A 1 % increase in government spending on healthcare was associated with a statistically significant decrease in colorectal cancer mortality across both sexes (men: R = -0.4307, 95 % CI -0.6057 to -0.2557, P < 0.001; women: R = -0.2162, 95 % CI -0.3407 to -0.0917, P = 0.001). The largest changes in mortality occurred 3-4 years following changes in either economic variable. CONCLUSIONS: Unemployment rises are associated with a significant increase in colorectal cancer mortality, whilst government healthcare spending rises are associated with falling mortality. This is likely due, in part, to reduced access to healthcare services and has major implications for clinicians and policy makers alike.

Changes in government spending on healthcare and population mortality in the European union, 1995-2010: a cross-sectional ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: Economic measures such as unemployment and gross domestic product are correlated with changes in health outcomes. We aimed to examine the effects of changes in government healthcare spending, an increasingly important measure given constrained government budgets in several European Union countries. DESIGN: Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in healthcare spending as a proportion of total government expenditure, government healthcare spending as a proportion of gross domestic product and government healthcare spending measured in purchasing power parity per capita, on five mortality indicators. Additional variables were controlled for to ensure robustness of data. One to five year lag analyses were conducted. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: European Union countries 1995-2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, one to five years of age mortality, under five years of age mortality, adult male mortality, adult female mortality. RESULTS: A 1% decrease in government healthcare spending was associated with significant increase in all mortality metrics: neonatal mortality (coefficient -0.1217, p = 0.0001), postneonatal mortality (coefficient -0.0499, p = 0.0018), one to five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.0185, p = 0.0002), under five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.1897, p = 0.0003), adult male mortality (coefficient -2.5398, p = 0.0000) and adult female mortality (coefficient -1.4492, p = 0.0000). One per cent decrease in healthcare spending, measured as a proportion of gross domestic product and in purchasing power parity, was both associated with significant increases (p < 0.05) in all metrics. Five years after the 1% decrease in healthcare spending, significant increases (p < 0.05) continued to be observed in all mortality metrics. CONCLUSIONS: Decreased government healthcare spending is associated with increased population mortality in the short and long term. Policy interventions implemented in response to the financial crisis may be associated with worsening population health.

Unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in the OECD, 1990-2009.

The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment in many countries. Insights into the impact of unemployment on specific health conditions remain limited. We determined the association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We used multivariate regression analysis to assess the association between changes in unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in OECD member states between 1990 and 2009. Country-specific differences in healthcare infrastructure, population structure, and population size were controlled for and lag analyses conducted. Several robustness checks were also performed. Time trend analyses were used to predict the number of excess deaths from prostate cancer following the 2008 global recession. Between 1990 and 2009, a 1% rise in unemployment was associated with an increase in prostate cancer mortality. Lag analysis showed a continued increase in mortality years after unemployment rises. The association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality remained significant in robustness checks with 46 controls. Eight of the 21 OECD countries for which a time trend analysis was conducted, exhibited an estimated excess of prostate cancer deaths in at least one of 2008, 2009, or 2010, based on 2000-2007 trends. Rises in unemployment are associated with significant increases in prostate cancer mortality. Initiatives that bolster employment may help to minimise prostate cancer mortality during times of economic hardship.

The effect of economic downturns on maternal mortality among pregnancies with abortive outcomes in 81 countries, 1981-2010.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between economic downturns and abortion-related maternal mortality in multiple countries over 30 years. METHODS: In a retrospective study, WHO data were obtained for maternal deaths among pregnancies with abortive outcomes between January 1, 1981, and December 31, 2010. Economic data for the same period were obtained from The World Bank. An economic downturn was defined as an annual decline in gross domestic product per head. Multivariate regression-controlling for country-specific differences in infrastructure, population size, and demographic structure-and 5-year lag analyses were performed. RESULTS: Data were available for 81 countries. Abortion-related maternal mortality was significantly increased in years of economic downturns (R=0.0708; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0264-0.1151; P=0.0018). The association was sustained for 4 years after an economic downturn (year 1: R=0.0709 [95% CI 0.0231-0.1187], P=0.0037; year 2: R=0.0634 [0.0178-0.1089], P=0.0065; year 3: R=0.0554 [0.0105-0.1004], P=0.0157; year 4: R=0.0593 [0.0148-0.1037], P=0.009). There was an annual 36% increase in deaths associated with unsafe abortion during economic downturn years. CONCLUSION: Economic downturns were associated with increased abortion-related maternal mortality, possibly due to changes in government healthcare spending and service provision. A global economic downturn could impede a reduction in maternal mortality.

Government health care spending and child mortality.

BACKGROUND: Government health care spending (GHS) is of increasing importance to child health. Our study determined the relationship between reductions in GHS and child mortality rates in high- and low-income countries. METHODS: The authors used comparative country-level data for 176 countries covering the years 1981 to 2010, obtained from the World Bank and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the association between changes in GHS and child mortality, controlling for differences in infrastructure and demographics. RESULTS: Data were available for 176 countries, equating to a population of ∼ 5.8 billion as of 2010. A 1% decrease in GHS was associated with a significant increase in 4 child mortality measures: neonatal (regression coefficient [R] 0.0899, P = .0001, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0440-0.1358), postneonatal (R = 0.1354, P = .0001, 95% CI 0.0678-0.2030), 1- to 5-year (R = 0.3501, P < .0001, 95% CI 0.2318-0.4685), and under 5-year (R = 0.5207, P < .0001, 95% CI 0.3168-0.7247) mortality rates. The effect was evident up to 5 years after the reduction in GHS (P < .0001). Compared with high-income countries, low-income countries experienced greater deteriorations of ∼ 1.31 times neonatal mortality, 2.81 times postneonatal mortality, 8.08 times 1- to 5-year child mortality, and 2.85 times under 5-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in GHS are associated with significant increases in child mortality, with the largest increases occurring in low-income countries.

Unemployment, public-sector health care expenditure and HIV mortality: An analysis of 74 countries, 1981-2009.

BACKGROUND: The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment and reduced public-sector expenditure on health care (PSEH). We determined the association between unemployment, PSEH and HIV mortality. METHODS: Data were obtained from the World Bank and the World Health Organisation (1981-2009). Multivariate regression analysis was implemented, controlling for country-specific demographics and infrastructure. Time-lag analyses and robustness-checks were performed. FINDINGS: Data were available for 74 countries (unemployment analysis) and 75 countries (PSEH analysis), equating to 2.19 billion and 2.22 billion people, respectively, as of 2009. A 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in HIV mortality (men: 0.1861, 95% CI: 0.0977 to 0.2744, P = 0.0000, women: 0.0383, 95% CI: 0.0108 to 0.0657, P = 0.0064). A 1% increase in PSEH was associated with a significant decrease in HIV mortality (men: -0.5015, 95% CI: -0.7432 to -0.2598, P = 0.0001; women: -0.1562, 95% CI: -0.2404 to -0.0720, P = 0.0003). Time-lag analysis showed that significant changes in HIV mortality continued for up to 5 years following variations in both unemployment and PSEH. INTERPRETATION: Unemployment increases were associated with significant HIV mortality increases. PSEH increases were associated with reduced HIV mortality. The facilitation of access-to-care for the unemployed and policy interventions which aim to protect PSEH could contribute to improved HIV outcomes.

Unemployment, government healthcare spending, and cerebrovascular mortality, worldwide 1981-2009: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: The global economic downturn has been associated with unemployment rises, reduced health spending, and worsened population health. This has raised the question of how economic variations affect health outcomes. AIM: We sought to determine the effect of changes in unemployment and government healthcare expenditure on cerebrovascular mortality globally. METHODS: Data were obtained from the World Bank and World Health Organization. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in unemployment and government healthcare expenditure on cerebrovascular mortality. Country-specific differences in infrastructure and demographics were controlled for. One- to five-year lag analyses and robustness checks were conducted. RESULTS: Across 99 countries worldwide, between 1981 and 2009, every 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in cerebrovascular mortality (coefficient 187, CI: 86.6-288, P = 0.0003). Every 1% rise in government healthcare expenditure, across both genders, was associated with significant decreases in cerebrovascular deaths (coefficient 869, CI: 383-1354, P = 0.0005). The association between unemployment and cerebrovascular mortality remained statistically significant for at least five years subsequent to the 1% unemployment rise, while the association between government healthcare expenditure and cerebrovascular mortality remained significant for two years. These relationships were both shown to be independent of changes in gross domestic product per capita, inflation, interest rates, urbanization, nutrition, education, and out-of-pocket spending. CONCLUSIONS: Rises in unemployment and reductions in government healthcare expenditure are associated with significant increases in cerebrovascular mortality globally. Clinicians may also need to consider unemployment as a possible risk factor for cerebrovascular disease mortality.

Unemployment, public-sector health-care spending and breast cancer mortality in the European Union: 1990-2009.

BACKGROUND: The global economic crisis has been associated with increased unemployment, reduced health-care spending and adverse health outcomes. Insights into the impact of economic variations on cancer mortality, however, remain limited. METHODS: We used multivariate regression analysis to assess how changes in unemployment and public-sector expenditure on health care (PSEH) varied with female breast cancer mortality in the 27 European Union member states from 1990 to 2009. We then determined how the association with unemployment was modified by PSEH. Country-specific differences in infrastructure and demographic structure were controlled for, and 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year lag analyses were conducted. Several robustness checks were also implemented. RESULTS: Unemployment was associated with an increase in breast cancer mortality [P < 0.0001, coefficient (R) = 0.1829, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0978-0.2680]. Lag analysis showed a continued increase in breast cancer mortality at 1, 3, 5 and 10 years after unemployment rises (P < 0.05). Controlling for PSEH removed this association (P = 0.063, R = 0.080, 95% CI -0.004 to 0.163). PSEH increases were associated with significant decreases in breast cancer mortality (P < 0.0001, R = -1.28, 95% CI -1.67 to -0.877). The association between unemployment and breast cancer mortality remained in all robustness checks. CONCLUSION: Rises in unemployment are associated with significant short- and long-term increases in breast cancer mortality, while increases in PSEH are associated with reductions in breast cancer mortality. Initiatives that bolster employment and maintain total health-care expenditure may help minimize increases in breast cancer mortality during economic crises.

Unemployment, public-sector healthcare spending and stomach cancer mortality in the European Union, 1981-2009.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the association between changes in unemployment, healthcare spending and stomach cancer mortality. METHODS: Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess how changes in unemployment and public-sector expenditure on healthcare (PSEH) varied with stomach cancer mortality in 25 member states of the European Union from 1981 to 2009. Country-specific differences in healthcare infrastructure and demographics were controlled for 1- to 5-year time-lag analyses and robustness checks were carried out. RESULTS: A 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in stomach cancer mortality in both men and women [men: coefficient (R)=0.1080, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.0470-0.1690, P=0.0006; women: R=0.0488, 95% CI=0.0168-0.0809, P=0.0029]. A 1% increase in PSEH was associated with a significant decrease in stomach cancer mortality (men: R=-0.0009, 95% CI=-0.0013 to -0.005, P<0.0001; women: R=-0.0004, 95% CI=-0.0007 to -0.0001, P=0.0054). The associations remained when economic factors, urbanization, nutrition and alcohol intake were controlled for, but not when healthcare resources were controlled for. Time-lag analysis showed that the largest changes in mortality occurred 3-4 years after any changes in either unemployment or PSEH. CONCLUSION: Increases in unemployment are associated with a significant increase in stomach cancer mortality. Stomach cancer mortality is also affected by public-sector healthcare spending. Initiatives that bolster employment and maintain public-sector healthcare expenditure may help to minimize increases in stomach cancer mortality during economic downturns.

The biomarket.

Political analysis can enrich our understanding of the interface between health and society. Here, a theoretical framework called 'the biomarket' is proposed, one that describes the interaction between life, power and the market, and the progressive institutionalisation of this dynamic by state actors. This framework expands upon 'biopower', a social concept developed by Michel Foucault. The role of the biomarket is illustrated by analysis of a range of cases, namely the relationships between global health and the pharmaceutical and tobacco industries. The potential adverse consequences of the biomarket are demonstrated, revealing how in some instances, important social measures of welfare are discarded for the sake of economic efficiency and profit. The authors conclude that the biomarket may serve to deepen our understanding of the authority and control exerted by corporations over life, positing that the biomarket must be further regulated for sustainable advances in global health.