Japanese Encephalitis Virus Emergence in Australia: Public Health Importance and Implications for Future Surveillance.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) continues to cause significant numbers of human infections and fatalities despite the availability of efficacious vaccines. It is regarded as an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen with the potential of introduction into many countries. In 2022, JEV was detected in Australia on a hitherto unprecedented scale, with local transmission by indigenous mosquitoes to amplifying swine hosts and to humans. In this study, we review this recent disease activity, propose possible routes of virus movement, ecological drivers of activity, and consider possible future transmission scenarios. Measures to enhance current surveillance systems and potential strategies for health authorities to minimize future risks are discussed.

Citizen Science Mosquito Surveillance by Ad Hoc Observation Using the iNaturalist Platform.

Citizen science mosquito surveillance has been growing in recent years due to both increasing concern about mosquito-borne disease and the increasing popularity of citizen science projects globally. Health authorities are recognising the potential importance of citizen science to expanding or enhancing traditional surveillance programs. Different programs have shown success in engaging communities to monitor species of medical importance through low-cost methods. The Mozzie Monitors project was established on iNaturalist-an open citizen science platform that allows participants to upload photos (i.e., observers) and assist identification (i.e., identifiers). This article describes the likelihood of citizen scientists submitting photos of mosquitoes, assesses user submission behaviour, and evaluates public health utility from these citizen science-derived data. From October 2018 to July 2021, the Mozzie Monitors project on iNaturalist received 2118 observations of 57 different species of mosquitoes across Australia. The number of observers in the system increased over time with more than 500 observers and 180 identifiers being active in the project since its establishment. Data showed species bias with large-bodied and colourful mosquitoes being over-represented. Analyses also indicate regional differentiation of mosquito fauna per state, seasonality of activity, and ecological information about mosquitoes. The iNaturalist citizen science platform also allows connectedness, facilitated communication and collaboration between overall users and expert entomologists, of value to medical entomology and mosquito management.

Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.

Nature-Based Citizen Science as a Mechanism to Improve Human Health in Urban Areas.

The world is becoming increasingly urbanised, impacting human interactions with natural environments (NEs). NEs take a number of forms, ranging from pristine, modified, to built NEs, which are common in many urban areas. NEs may include nature-based solutions, such as introducing nature elements and biological processes into cities that are used to solve problems created by urbanisation. Whilst urbanisation has negative impacts on human health, impacting mental and physical wellbeing through a number of mechanisms, exposure to NEs may improve human health and wellbeing. Here, we review the mechanisms by which health can be improved by exposure to NEs, as explained by Stress Reduction Theory, Attention Restoration Theory, and the 'Old Friends'/biodiversity hypothesis. Such exposures may have physiological and immunological benefits, mediated through endocrine pathways and altered microbiota. Citizen Science, which often causes exposure to NEs and social activity, is being increasingly used to not only collect scientific data but also to engage individuals and communities. Despite being a named component of scientific and environmental strategies of governments, to our knowledge, the intrinsic health benefits of Citizen Science in NEs do not form part of public health policy. We contend that Citizen Science programs that facilitate exposure to NEs in urban areas may represent an important public health policy advance.

Estimation of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of Zika virus in Australia: Risks to blood transfusion safety.

BACKGROUND: Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred in the Americas and the Pacific involving mosquito-borne and sexual transmission. ZIKV has also emerged as a risk to global blood transfusion safety. Aedes aegypti, a mosquito well established in north and some parts of central and southern Queensland, Australia, transmits ZIKV. Aedes albopictus, another potential ZIKV vector, is a threat to mainland Australia. Since these conditions create the potential for local transmission in Australia and a possible uncertainty in the effectiveness of blood donor risk-mitigation programs, we investigated the possible impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of ZIKV in Australia on local blood transfusion safety. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimated 'best-' and 'worst-' case scenarios of monthly reproduction number (R0) for both transmission pathways of ZIKV from 1996-2015 in 11 urban or regional population centres, by varying epidemiological and entomological estimates. We then estimated the attack rate and subsequent number of infectious people to quantify the ZIKV transfusion-transmission risk using the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool. For all scenarios and with both vector species R0 was lower than one for ZIKV transmission. However, a higher risk of a sustained outbreak was estimated for Cairns, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, and theoretically in Darwin during the warmest months of the year. The yearly estimation of the risk of transmitting ZIKV infection by blood transfusion remained low through the study period for all locations, with the highest potential risk estimated in Darwin. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from infectious disease outbreak regions to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. However, if local transmission was suspected in the main urban centres of Australia, potentially facilitated by the geographic range expansion of Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus, this mitigation strategy would need urgent review.

Citizen science and smartphone e-entomology enables low-cost upscaling of mosquito surveillance.

Mosquito surveillance remains a cornerstone of pest and disease control operations globally but is strongly limited in scale by resources. The use of citizen science to upscale scientific data collection is commonplace, and mosquito surveillance programs have begun to make use of citizen scientists in several countries, particularly for exotic species detection. Here we report on a proof of concept trial in southern Australia for a citizen science mosquito surveillance program characterised by fixed point trapping with BG GAT devices and remote mosquito identification through emailed images, which we term 'e-entomology'. In a study with 126 participants, we detected mosquito seasonality with peak abundance in mid-summer (1.78 mosquitoes per trap per day), weather correlations (positive correlation with maximum temperature, r = 0.41) and a diversity of species (15 of 22 known species in the region) in a metropolitan setting. Whilst we demonstrated that the costs of a citizen science program is only about 20% of a comparable professional surveillance program, the mosquito community sampled by citizen scientists was biased towards container-inhabiting species, particularly Aedes notoscriptus. This is the first time fixed-point mosquito trapping has been combined with citizen science e-entomology to deliver comprehensive surveillance of urban mosquitoes.

Epidemic potential of Zika virus in Australia: implications for blood transfusion safety.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) is transfusion-transmissible. In Australia the primary vector, Aedes aegypti, is established in the north-east, such that local transmission is possible following importation of an index case, which has the potential to impact on blood transfusion safety and public health. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) to model the epidemic potential of ZIKV in Australian locations, compared this with the ecologically similar dengue viruses (DENV), and examined possible implications for blood transfusion safety. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Varying estimates of vector control efficiency and extrinsic incubation period, "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios of monthly R 0 for ZIKV and DENV were modeled from 1996 to 2015 in 11 areas. We visualized the geographical distribution of blood donors in relation to areas with epidemic potential for ZIKV. RESULTS: Epidemic potential (R 0 > 1) existed for ZIKV and DENV throughout the study period in a number of locations in northern Australia (Cairns, Darwin, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, Townsville, and Brisbane) during the warmer months of the year. R 0 for DENV was greater than ZIKV and was broadly consistent with annual estimates in Cairns. Increased vector control efficiency markedly reduced the epidemic potential and shortened the season of local transmission. Australian locations that provide the greatest number of blood donors did not have epidemic potential for ZIKV. CONCLUSION: We estimate that areas of north-eastern Australia could sustain local transmission of ZIKV. This early contribution to understanding the epidemic potential of ZIKV may assist in the assessment and management of threats to blood transfusion safety.

Mosquito traps for urban surveillance: collection efficacy and potential for use by citizen scientists.

Mosquito-borne diseases are a pervasive public health problem on a global scale, and effective management of them requires well-designed surveillance programs for both vectors and pathogens. Mosquito traps are a common component of such programs, and their reach can be expanded by engaging citizen scientists. In this study in a southern Australian city, we compared the mosquito collection efficacy of two types of traps and assessed their suitability for use in citizen science programs. BG Sentinels and BG Gravid Aedes Trap (BG-GAT) traps both collected Aedes and Culex species in similar proportions, albeit with the former collecting approximately nine times as many mosquitoes. However, BG Sentinels have a greater per unit cost than BG-GATs and are restricted to deployment near power outlets. Importantly, despite being devised for collection of Aedes (Stegomyia) dengue vectors (such as Aedes aegypti), both traps can be effectively used in temperate climates for collection of a range of mosquito species. These traps could conceivably be used in citizen science programs to enhance the reach of surveillance at reduced cost.

Ross River Virus and the Necessity of Multiscale, Eco-epidemiological Analyses.

Background: Zoonotic vector-borne disease prevalence is affected by vector, human, and reservoir host factors, which are influenced by habitat and climate; these 5 components interact on microhabitat-to-landscape scales but are often analyzed at a single spatial scale. Methods: We present an information theoretic, multiscale, multiple regression analysis of the ecological drivers of Ross River virus. We analyze the spatial pattern of 20 years of Ross River virus infections from South Australia (1992-2012; n = 5261), using variables across these 5 components of disease ecology at 3 spatial scales. Results: We found that covariate importance depended on the spatial scale of the analysis; some biotic variables were more important at fine scales and some abiotic variables were more important at coarser spatial scales. The urban score of an area was most predictive of infections, and mosquito variables did not improve the explanatory power of these models. Conclusions: Through this multiscale analysis, we identified novel drivers of the spatial distribution of disease and recommend public health interventions. Our results underline that single-scale analyses may paint an incomplete picture of disease drivers, potentially creating a major flaw in epidemiological analyses. Multiscale, ecological analyses are needed to better understand infectious disease transmission.

Public Health Responses to and Challenges for the Control of Dengue Transmission in High-Income Countries: Four Case Studies.

Dengue has a negative impact in low- and lower middle-income countries, but also affects upper middle- and high-income countries. Despite the efforts at controlling this disease, it is unclear why dengue remains an issue in affluent countries. A better understanding of dengue epidemiology and its burden, and those of chikungunya virus and Zika virus which share vectors with dengue, is required to prevent the emergence of these diseases in high-income countries in the future. The purpose of this review was to assess the relative burden of dengue in four high-income countries and to appraise the similarities and differences in dengue transmission. We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar using specific keywords for articles published up to 05 May 2016. We found that outbreaks rarely occur where only Aedes albopictus is present. The main similarities between countries uncovered by our review are the proximity to dengue-endemic countries, the presence of a competent mosquito vector, a largely nonimmune population, and a lack of citizens' engagement in control of mosquito breeding. We identified important epidemiological and environmental issues including the increase of local transmission despite control efforts, population growth, difficulty locating larval sites, and increased human mobility from neighboring endemic countries. Budget cuts in health and lack of practical vaccines contribute to an increased risk. To be successful, dengue-control programs for high-income countries must consider the epidemiology of dengue in other countries and use this information to minimize virus importation, improve the control of the cryptic larval habitat, and engage the community in reducing vector breeding. Finally, the presence of a communicable disease center is critical for managing and reducing future disease risks.

Regional Comparison of Mosquito Bloodmeals in South Australia: Implications for Ross River Virus Ecology.

Ross River virus (RRV) is responsible for the most notifications of human arboviral infection in Australia. Seroprevalence and experimental infection studies have implicated macropods (e.g., kangaroos) as the major reservoir hosts. However, transmission ecology varies spatially, and infections in urban areas have prompted the question of what animals serve as reservoirs in regions where macropods are scarce. In South Australia (SA), human infection rates for RRV vary greatly by region as do vector and reservoir abundance. We hypothesized that mosquito abundance and feeding patterns would vary among ecoregions of SA and could help explain divergent human case rates. To test our hypothesis, we amplified and sequenced a 457 base pair region of the cytochrome B segment of mitochondrial DNA from blood fed mosquitoes collected in three main ecoregions of SA and identified sequences using a BLAST search in NCBI. Domestic livestock made up the vast majority of bloodmeals from the region with the highest human infection rate. Livestock are generally not considered to be important reservoir hosts for RRV, but our results suggest they may have a role in transmission ecology in some places. Surprisingly, none of the 199 bloodmeal samples were identified as macropod in origin. In the context of these findings, we consider the possible RRV vectors and reservoir hosts in these regions and propose that diverse spatial and temporal transmission ecologies occur in SA, depending on vector and reservoir availability.

Differentiation of Aedes aegypti and Aedes notoscriptus (Diptera: Culicidae) eggs using scanning electron microscopy.

Aedes notoscriptus and Aedes aegypti are both peri-domestic, invasive container-breeding mosquitoes. While the two potential arboviral vectors are bionomically similar, their sympatric distribution in Australia is limited. In this study, analyses of Ae. aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus eggs were enabled using scanning electron microscopy. Significant variations in egg length to width ratio and outer chorionic cell field morphology between Ae. aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus enabled distinction of the two species. Intraspecific variations in cell field morphology also enabled differentiation of the separate populations of both species, highlighting regional and global variation. Our study provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of inter- and intraspecific egg morphological and morphometric variation between two invasive container-breeding mosquitoes. The results indicate a high degree of intraspecific variation in Ae. notoscriptus egg morphology when compared to the eggs of Ae. aegypti. Comparative morphological analyses of Ae. aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus egg attributes using SEM allows differentiation of the species and may be helpful in understanding egg biology in relation to biotope of origin.

Epidemic Potential for Local Transmission of Zika Virus in 2015 and 2016 in Queensland, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Zika virus could be transmitted in the state of Queensland, Australia, in parts of the state where the mosquito vectors are established. METHODS: We assessed the epidemic potential of Zika in Queensland from January 2015 to August 2016, and estimate the epidemic potential from September to December 2016, by calculating the temperature-dependent relative vectorial capacity (rVc), based on empirical and estimated parameters. RESULTS: Through 2015, we estimated a rVc of 0.119, 0.152, 0.170, and 0.175, respectively in the major cities of Brisbane, Rockhampton, Cairns, and Townsville. From January to August 2016, the epidemic potential trend was similar to 2015, however the highest epidemic potential was in Cairns. During September to November 2016, the epidemic potential is consistently the highest in Cairns, followed by Townsville, Rockhampton and Brisbane. Then, from November to December 2016, Townsville has the highest estimated epidemic potential. DISCUSSION: We demonstrate using a vectorial capacity model that ZIKV could have been locally transmitted in Queensland, Australia during 2015 and 2016. ZIKV remains a threat to Australia for the upcoming summer, during the Brazilian Carnival season, when the abundance of vectors is relatively high. Understanding the epidemic potential of local ZIKV transmission will allow better management of threats to blood safety and assessment of public health risk.

Intraspecific variation in desiccation survival time of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito eggs of Australian origin.

Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquitoes preferentially oviposit in natural and artificial receptacles where their eggs are able to withstand drying as water levels fluctuate. Desiccation-resistant eggs also increase the potential for establishment in non-native habitats while providing logistical impediments to control programs. Viability and mean survival times of eggs stored under three dryness conditions for up to 367 days were investigated among three field-derived colonies of Australian Ae. aegypti to understand variation in desiccation survival. Further investigations compared egg survival between an established colony and its wild counterpart. Our results confirmed that Ae. aegypti eggs can withstand desiccation for extended periods of time with approximately 2-15% egg viability recorded after one year and viability remaining above 88% under all conditions through 56 days. Intraspecific variations in egg survival times were recorded, suggesting local adaptation while each of the colonies demonstrated a consistent preference for higher humidity. Egg volume varied between the populations, suggesting a relationship between egg volume and survival time, with the marginally larger eggs (Charters Towers and Innisfail) having greater desiccation resistance over the range of conditions. The strong survivorship of Charters Towers eggs in dry, warm conditions demonstrates the adaptive significance of a desiccation-resistant egg.

The Usual Suspects: Comparison of the Relative Roles of Potential Urban Chikungunya Virus Vectors in Australia.

The global re-emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) over the last decade presents a serious public health risk to Australia. An increasing number of imported cases further underline the potential for local transmission to occur if local mosquitoes bite an infected traveller. Laboratory experiments have identified a number of competent Australian mosquito species, including the primary vectors of CHIKV abroad, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, and local endemic species Aedes vigilax and Aedes notoscriptus. The implication of these additional endemic species as potential vectors has generated much uncertainty amongst public health professionals regarding their actual role in CHIKV transmission in the field. Using data estimated from or documented in the literature, we parameterise a simple vectorial capacity model to evaluate the relative roles of Australian mosquito species in potential CHIKV transmission. The model takes into account a number of key biological and ecological variables which influence the role of a species in field transmission, including population density, human feeding rates, mosquito survival rates and vector competence. We confirm the relative importance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in sustaining potential CHIKV transmission in Australia. Even at maximum estimated densities and human feeding rates, Ae. vigilax and Ae. notoscriptus are likely to play a relatively minor role in CHIKV transmission, when compared with either Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus. This relatively straightforward analysis has application for any region where mosquito species have been incriminated in vector competence experiments, but where their actual role in CHIKV transmission has not been established.

Converting Mosquito Surveillance to Arbovirus Surveillance with Honey-Baited Nucleic Acid Preservation Cards.

Spatially and temporally accurate information about infectious mosquito distribution allows for pre-emptive public health interventions that can reduce the burden of mosquito-borne infections on human populations. However, the labile nature of arboviruses, the low prevalence of infection in mosquitoes, the expensive labor costs for mosquito identification and sorting, and the specialized equipment required for arbovirus testing can obstruct arbovirus surveillance efforts. The recently developed techniques of testing mosquito expectorate using honey-baited nucleic acid preservation cards or sugar bait stations allows a sensitive method of testing for infectious, rather than infected, mosquito vectors. Here we report the results from the first large-scale incorporation of honey-baited cards into an existing mosquito surveillance program. During 4 months of the peak virus season (January-April, 2014) for a total of 577 trap nights, we set CO2-baited encephalitis vector survey (EVS) light traps at 88 locations in South Australia. The collection container for the EVS trap was modified to allow for the placement of a honey-baited nucleic acid preservation card (FTA™ card) inside. After collection, mosquitoes were maintained in a humid environment and allowed access to the cards for 1 week. Cards were then analyzed for common endemic Australian arboviruses using a nested RT-PCR. Eighteen virus detections, including 11 Ross River virus, four Barmah Forest virus, and three Stratford virus (not previously reported from South Australia) were obtained. Our findings suggest that adding FTA cards to an existing mosquito surveillance program is a rapid and efficient way of detecting infectious mosquitoes with high spatial resolution.

Field Worker Evaluation of Dengue Vector Surveillance Methods: Factors That Determine Perceived Ease, Difficulty, Value, and Time Effectiveness in Australia and Malaysia.

This qualitative study aimed to describe field worker perceptions, evaluations of worth, and time costs of routine dengue vector surveillance methods in Cairns (Australia), Kuala Lumpur and Petaling District (Malaysia). In Cairns, the BG-Sentinel trap is a favored method for field workers because of its user-friendliness, but is not as cost-efficient as the sticky ovitrap. In Kuala Lumpur, the Mosquito Larvae Trapping Device is perceived as a solution for the inaccessibility of premises to larval surveys. Nonetheless, the larval survey method is retained in Malaysia for prompt detection of dengue vectors. For dengue vector surveillance to be successful, there needs to be not only technical, quantitative evaluations of method performance but also an appreciation of how amenable field workers are to using particular methods. Here, we report novel field worker perceptions of dengue vector surveillance methods in addition to time analysis for each method.

Bionomic response of Aedes aegypti to two future climate change scenarios in far north Queensland, Australia: implications for dengue outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Dengue viruses are transmitted by anthropophilic mosquitoes and infect approximately 50 million humans annually. To investigate impacts of future climate change on dengue virus transmission, we investigated bionomics of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. METHODS: Using a dynamic life table simulation model (the Container inhabiting mosquito simulation CIMSiM) and statistically downscaled daily values for future climate, we assessed climate change induced changes to mosquito bionomics. Simulations of Ae. aegypti populations for current (1991-2011) and future climate (2046-2065) were conducted for the city of Cairns, Queensland, the population centre with most dengue virus transmission in Australia. Female mosquito abundance, wet weight, and the extrinsic incubation period for dengue virus in these mosquitoes were estimated for current and future climate (MPI ECHAM 5 model, B1 and A2 emission scenarios). RESULTS: Overall mosquito abundance is predicted to change, but results were equivocal for different climate change scenarios. Aedes aegypti abundance is predicted to increase under the B1, but decrease under the A2 scenario. Mosquitoes are predicted to have a smaller body mass in a future climate. Shorter extrinsic incubation periods are projected. CONCLUSIONS: It is therefore unclear whether dengue risk would increase or decrease in tropical Australia with climate change. Our findings challenge the prevailing view that a future, warmer climate will lead to larger mosquito populations and a definite increase in dengue transmission. Whilst general predictions can be made about future mosquito borne disease incidence, cautious interpretation is necessary due to interaction between local environment, human behaviour and built environment, dengue virus, and vectors.

Epidemiology of dengue in a high-income country: a case study in Queensland, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Australia is one of the few high-income countries where dengue transmission regularly occurs. Dengue is a major health threat in North Queensland (NQ), where the vector Aedes aegypti is present. Whether NQ should be considered as a dengue endemic or epidemic region is an ongoing debate. To help address this issue, we analysed the characteristics of locally-acquired (LA) and imported dengue cases in NQ through time and space. We describe the epidemiology of dengue in NQ from 1995 to 2011, to identify areas to target interventions. We also investigated the timeliness of notification and identified high-risk areas. METHODS: Data sets of notified cases and viraemic arrivals from overseas were analysed. We developed a time series based on the LA cases and performed an analysis to capture the relationship between incidence rate and demographic factors. Spatial analysis was used to visualise incidence rates through space and time. RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2011, 93.9% of reported dengue cases were LA, mainly in the 'Cairns and Hinterland' district; 49.7% were males, and the mean age was 38.0 years old. The sources of imported cases (6.1%) were Indonesia (24.6%), Papua New Guinea (23.2%), Thailand (13.4%), East Timor (8.9%) and the Philippines (6.7%), consistent with national data. Travellers importing dengue were predominantly in the age groups 30-34 and 45-49 years old, whereas the age range of patients who acquired dengue locally was larger. The number of LA cases correlated with the number of viraemic importations. Duration of viraemia of public health importance was positively correlated with the delay in notification. Dengue incidence varied over the year and was typically highest in summer and autumn. However, dengue activity has been reported in winter, and a number of outbreaks resulted in transmission year-round. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasizes the importance of delay in notification and consequent duration of viraemia of public health importance for dengue outbreak duration. It also highlights the need for targeted vector control programmes and surveillance of travellers at airports as well as regularly affected local areas. Given the likely increase in dengue transmission with climate change, endemicity in NQ may become a very real possibility.

Determining the spatial autocorrelation of dengue vector populations: influences of mosquito sampling method, covariables, and vector control.

We investigated spatial autocorrelation of female Aedes aegypti L. mosquito abundance from BG-Sentinel trap and sticky ovitrap collections in Cairns, north Queensland, Australia. BG-Sentinel trap collections in 2010 show a significant spatial autocorrelation across the study site and over a smaller spatial extent, while sticky ovitrap collections only indicate a non-significant, weak spatial autocorrelation. The BG-Sentinel trap collections were suitable for spatial interpolation using ordinary kriging and cokriging techniques. The uses of Premise Condition Index and potential breeding container data have helped improve our prediction of vector abundance. Semiovariograms and prediction maps indicate that the spatial autocorrelation of mosquito abundance determined by BG-Sentinel traps extends farther compared to sticky ovitrap collections. Based on our data, fewer BG-Sentinel traps are required to represent vector abundance at a series of houses compared to sticky ovitraps. A lack of spatial structure was observed following vector control treatment in the area. This finding has implications for the design and costs of dengue vector surveillance programs.