Oligoclonal bands.

Oligoclonal bands (OCBs) represent the presence of intrathecal immunoglobulin G (IgG) as detected by isoelectric focusing and immunofixation. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysed alongside a paired serum sample gives five different immunofixation patterns. These are: type 1-the normal physiological state with no intrathecal IgG synthesis; type 2-evidence for intrathecal IgG synthesis, with CSF-restricted OCBs; type 3-evidence for intrathecal IgG synthesis, with CSF-restricted OCBs, but with additional, identical bands in the CSF and serum; type 4-absence of intrathecal IgG synthesis, but with identical OCBs in CSF and serum; and type 5-absence of intrathecal IgG synthesis, with a monoclonal band in CSF and serum. Analysis of these patterns can help to diagnose a range of neurological conditions, including multiple sclerosis. However, it is important to interpret OCB results alongside other CSF tests and their clinical context.

Lack of reinforcement is hard to "bear": Assessing judgment bias in grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis).

Cognitive biases reveal underlying affective state by indicating optimism and pessimism. This methodology may permit assessment of positive welfare in animals that have few validated positive welfare indicators, such as bears. Our goal was to validate a judgment bias test for assessing optimism in brown bears, using a touchscreen. After training the bears on a conditional discrimination, we compared responses to an ambiguous stimulus in a 2 × 2 nested design involving four experimental conditions representing presence or absence of a behind-the-scenes tour and presence or absence of a keeper training session with food reinforcement. We recorded bears' behavior during the conditions as a measure of convergent validity. Testing revealed the possibility of pessimism in the absence of reinforcement in one bear. More frustration behaviors were also observed during the no food reinforcement conditions. This is the first experimental demonstration of brown bears using a touchscreen and one of only three reports in which bears have been reported to perform a conditional discrimination. This method of assessing underlying affective state shows promise for the future.

Relevance of Multiple Sclerosis Severity Genotype in Predicting Disease Course: A Real-World Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Currently, 233 genetic loci are known to be associated with susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS). Two independent pivotal severity genome-wide association studies recently found the first genome-wide significant single-nucleotide variant (SNV; rs10191329A ) and several other suggestive loci associated with overall disability outcomes. It is now important to understand if these findings can influence individual patient management. METHODS: We assessed whether these progression SNVs are associated with detailed clinical phenotypes in a well-characterized prospective cohort of 1,455 MS patients. We used logistic regression, survival analysis, and propensity score matching to predict relevant long-term clinical outcomes. RESULTS: We were unable to detect any association between rs10191329A and a range of clinically relevant outcomes (eg, time to Expanded Disability Status Scale milestones, age-related MS severity score, anatomical localization at onset or during subsequent relapses, annualized relapse rate). In addition, an extremes of outcome case-control analysis using a propensity score matching for genotype detected no association between disease severity and rs10191329A . However, we were able to replicate the association of two suggestive SNVs (rs7289446G and rs868824C ) with the development of fixed disability, albeit with modest effect sizes, and the association of HLA-DRB1*1501 with age at onset. INTERPRETATION: Identification of rs10191329A and other suggestive SNVs are of considerable importance in understanding pathophysiological processes associated with MS severity. However, it is unlikely that individual genotyping can currently be used in a clinical setting to guide disease management. This study shows the importance of independent replication of genome-wide association studies associated with disease progression in neurodegenerative disorders. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:459-470.

Numerical Investigation of Odor-Guided Navigation in Flying Insects: Impact of Turbulence, Wingbeat-Induced Flow, and Schmidt Number on Odor Plume Structures.

Odor-guided navigation is fundamental to the survival and reproductive success of many flying insects. Despite its biological importance, the mechanics of how insects sense and interpret odor plumes in the presence of complex flow fields remain poorly understood. This study employs numerical simulations to investigate the influence of turbulence, wingbeat-induced flow, and Schmidt number on the structure and perception of odor plumes by flying insects. Using an in-house computational fluid dynamics solver based on the immersed-boundary method, we solve the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations to model the flow field. The solver is coupled with the equations of motion for passive flapping wings to emulate wingbeat-induced flow. The odor landscape is then determined by solving the odor advection-diffusion equation. By employing a synthetic isotropic turbulence generator, we introduce turbulence into the flow field to examine its impact on odor plume structures. Our findings reveal that both turbulence and wingbeat-induced flow substantially affect odor plume characteristics. Turbulence introduces fluctuations and perturbations in the plume, while wingbeat-induced flow draws the odorant closer to the insect's antennae. Moreover, we demonstrate that the Schmidt number, which affects odorant diffusivity, plays a significant role in odor detectability. Specifically, at high Schmidt numbers, larger fluctuations in odor sensitivity are observed, which may be exploited by insects to differentiate between various odorant volatiles emanating from the same source. This study provides new insights into the complex interplay between fluid dynamics and sensory biology and behavior, enhancing our understanding of how flying insects successfully navigate using olfactory cues in turbulent environments.

Low-temperature trapping of N2 reduction reaction intermediates in nitrogenase MoFe protein-CdS quantum dot complexes.

The biological reduction of N2 to ammonia requires the ATP-dependent, sequential delivery of electrons from the Fe protein to the MoFe protein of nitrogenase. It has been demonstrated that CdS nanocrystals can replace the Fe protein to deliver photoexcited electrons to the MoFe protein. Herein, light-activated electron delivery within the CdS:MoFe protein complex was achieved in the frozen state, revealing that all the electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) active E-state intermediates in the catalytic cycle can be trapped and characterized by EPR spectroscopy. Prior to illumination, the CdS:MoFe protein complex EPR spectrum was composed of a S = 3/2 rhombic signal (g = 4.33, 3.63, and 2.01) consistent with the FeMo-cofactor in the resting state, E0. Illumination for sequential 1-h periods at 233 K under 1 atm of N2 led to a cumulative attenuation of E0 by 75%. This coincided with the appearance of S = 3/2 and S = 1/2 signals assigned to two-electron (E2) and four-electron (E4) reduced states of the FeMo-cofactor, together with additional S = 1/2 signals consistent with the formation of E6 and E8 states. Simulations of EPR spectra allowed quantification of the different E-state populations, along with mapping of these populations onto the Lowe-Thorneley kinetic scheme. The outcome of this work demonstrates that the photochemical delivery of electrons to the MoFe protein can be used to populate all of the EPR active E-state intermediates of the nitrogenase MoFe protein cycle.

High Affinity Electrostatic Interactions Support the Formation of CdS Quantum Dot:Nitrogenase MoFe Protein Complexes.

Nitrogenase MoFe protein can be coupled with CdS nanocrystals (NCs) to enable photocatalytic N2 reduction. The nature of interactions that support complex formation is of paramount importance in intermolecular electron transfer that supports catalysis. In this work we have employed microscale thermophoresis to examine binding interactions between 3-mercaptopropionate capped CdS quantum dots (QDs) and MoFe protein over a range of QD diameters (3.4-4.3 nm). The results indicate that the interactions are largely electrostatic, with the strength of interactions similar to that observed for the physiological electron donor. In addition, the strength of interactions is sensitive to the QD diameter, and the binding interactions are significantly stronger for QDs with smaller diameters. The ability to quantitatively assess NC protein interactions in biohybrid systems supports strategies for understanding properties and reaction parameters that are important for obtaining optimal rates of catalysis in biohybrid systems.

Cryo-annealing of Photoreduced CdS Quantum Dot-Nitrogenase MoFe Protein Complexes Reveals the Kinetic Stability of the E4(2N2H) Intermediate.

A critical step in the mechanism of N2 reduction to 2NH3 catalyzed by the enzyme nitrogenase is the reaction of the four-electron/four-proton reduced intermediate state of the active-site FeMo-cofactor (E4(4H)). This state is a junction in the catalytic mechanism, either relaxing by the reaction of a metal bound Fe-hydride with a proton forming H2 or going forward with N2 binding coupled to the reductive elimination (re) of two Fe-hydrides as H2 to form the E4(2N2H) state. E4(2N2H) can relax to E4(4H) by the oxidative addition (oa) of H2 and release of N2 or can be further reduced in a series of catalytic steps to release 2NH3. If the H2 re/oa mechanism is correct, it requires that oa of H2 be associative with E4(2N2H). In this report, we have taken advantage of CdS quantum dots in complex with MoFe protein to achieve photodriven electron delivery in the frozen state, with cryo-annealing in the dark, to reveal details of the E-state species and to test the stability of E4(2N2H). Illumination of frozen CdS:MoFe protein complexes led to formation of a population of reduced intermediates. Electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy identified E-state signals including E2 and E4(2N2H), as well as signals suggesting the formation of E6 or E8. It is shown that in the frozen state when pN2 is much greater than pH2, the E4(2N2H) state is kinetically stable, with very limited forward or reverse reaction rates. These results establish that the oa of H2 to the E4(2N2H) state follows an associative reaction mechanism.

Differential gene expression of Asian citrus psyllids infected with 'Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus' reveals hyper-susceptibility to invasion by instar fourth-fifth and teneral adult stages.

The bacterial pathogen Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) is the causal agent of citrus greening disease. This unusual plant pathogenic bacterium also infects its psyllid host, the Asian citrus psyllid (ACP). To investigate gene expression profiles with a focus on genes involved in infection and circulation within the psyllid host of CLas, RNA-seq libraries were constructed from CLas-infected and CLas-free ACP representing the five different developmental stages, namely, nymphal instars 1-2, 3, and 4-5, and teneral and mature adults. The Gbp paired-end reads (296) representing the transcriptional landscape of ACP across all life stages and the official gene set (OGSv3) were annotated based on the chromosomal-length v3 reference genome and used for de novo transcript discovery resulting in 25,410 genes with 124,177 isoforms. Differential expression analysis across all ACP developmental stages revealed instar-specific responses to CLas infection, with greater overall responses by nymphal instars, compared to mature adults. More genes were over-or under-expressed in the 4-5th nymphal instars and young (teneral) adults than in instars 1-3, or mature adults, indicating that late immature instars and young maturing adults were highly responsive to CLas infection. Genes identified with potential for direct or indirect involvement in the ACP-CLas circulative, propagative transmission pathway were predominantly responsive during early invasion and infection processes and included canonical cytoskeletal remodeling and endo-exocytosis pathway genes. Genes with predicted functions in defense, development, and immunity exhibited the greatest responsiveness to CLas infection. These results shed new light on ACP-CLas interactions essential for pathogenesis of the psyllid host, some that share striking similarities with effector protein-animal host mechanisms reported for other culturable and/or fastidious bacterial- or viral- host pathosystems.

Risk of COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis who are seronegative following vaccination.

BACKGROUND: People with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) treated with certain disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have attenuated IgG response following COVID-19 vaccination; however, the clinical consequences remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To report COVID-19 rates in pwMS according to vaccine serology. METHODS: PwMS with available (1) serology 2-12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccine 2 and/or vaccine 3 and (2) clinical data on COVID-19 infection/hospitalisation were included. Logistic regression was performed to examine whether seroconversion following vaccination predicted risk of subsequent COVID-19 infection after adjusting for potential confounders. Rates of severe COVID-19 (requiring hospitalisation) were also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 647 pwMS were included (mean age 48 years, 500 (77%) female, median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 3.5% and 524 (81%) exposed to DMT at the time of vaccine 1). Overall, 472 out of 588 (73%) were seropositive after vaccines 1 and 2 and 222 out of 305 (73%) after vaccine 3. Seronegative status after vaccine 2 was associated with significantly higher odds of subsequent COVID-19 infection (odds ratio (OR): 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-4.12, p = 0.0029), whereas seronegative status after vaccine 3 was not (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.57-1.91). Five people (0.8%) experienced severe COVID-19, all of whom were seronegative after most recent vaccination. CONCLUSION: Attenuated humoral response to initial COVID-19 vaccination predicts increased risk of COVID-19 in pwMS, but overall low rates of severe COVID-19 were seen.

Reconstructing archaeological palaeolandscapes using geophysical and geomatic survey techniques: An example from Red Lily Lagoon, Arnhem Land, Australia.

Arnhem Land is a key region for understanding the Pleistocene colonisation of Australia, due to the presence of the oldest sites in the continent. Despite this, conventional archaeological survey has not been effective at locating additional pre-Holocene sites in the region due to a complex distribution of geomorphic units caused by sea level rise and coastal aggradation. This research uses geophysical and geomatic techniques to map the subsurface distribution of the geomorphic units in the Red Lily Lagoon region in eastern Arnhem Land. This reveals a complex Pleistocene landscape, which offers the potential to locate additional archaeological sites and so reveal more about the lifeways of the earliest Australians.

Urinary oxytocin and cortisol concentrations vary by group type in male western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) in North American zoos.

Evaluating how primates in human care function within their social environment is important for understanding and optimizing their management and welfare. The neuroendocrine hormone oxytocin is associated with affiliation and bonding, suggesting it can be used to evaluate the affiliative nature of social groupings. When paired with cortisol concentrations, social stressors can simultaneously be assessed, providing a more complete picture of primate social environments than if measuring either hormone independently. Here, we measured both oxytocin and cortisol in urine within a large subset of male western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla; n = 71) living in North American zoos. Both endocrine measures were compared between social group types, with an emphasis on comparing bachelor and mixed-sex groupings to understand how these broad management practices affect male gorillas in zoos. Oxytocin concentrations were greater in bachelor group males than mixed-sex group males and singly housed males, providing physiological evidence that males in bachelor groups form comparatively stronger affiliative relationships than males in other group types. Cortisol concentrations did not differ between bachelor and mixed-sex group males and males in both group types had lower cortisol concentrations than singly housed males. These results indicate that males are similarly capable of coping with group-specific social stressors, and single management may expose males to additional stressors for which further study is needed. These data contribute to a larger body of research highlighting the value of bachelor groups from both a population management and individual welfare perspective.

Contemporary study of multiple sclerosis disability in South East Wales.

BACKGROUND: A contemporary understanding of disability evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS) is an essential tool for individual disease management and planning of interventional studies. We have used prospectively collected longitudinal data to analyse disability progression and variation in a British MS cohort. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 4.0 and 6.0. A continuous Markov model was used to estimate transitional probabilities for individual EDSS scores. Models were adjusted for age at MS onset, sex and disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) exposure. RESULTS: 2135 patients were included (1487 (70%) female, 1922 (89%) relapsing onset). 865 (41%) had used DMTs. Median time to EDSS 4.0 and 6.0 was 18.2 years (95% CI 16.3 to 20.2) and 22.1 years (95% CI 20.5 to 24.5). In the Markov model, the median time spent at EDSS scores of <6 (0.40-0.98 year) was shorter than the time spent at EDSS scores of ≥6 (0.87-4.11 year). Hazard of change in EDSS was greatest at EDSS scores <6 (HR for increasing EDSS: 1.02-1.33; decreasing EDSS: 0.34-1.27) compared with EDSS scores ≥6 (HR for increasing EDSS: 0.08-0.61; decreasing EDSS: 0.18-0.54). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide a detailed contemporary model of disability outcomes in a representative population-based MS cohort. They support a trend of increasing time to disability milestones compared with historical reference populations, and document disability variation with the use of transitional matrices. In addition, they provide essential information for patient counselling, clinical trial design, service planning and offer a comparative baseline for assessment of therapeutic interventions.

Challenging the 50-50 rule for the basal-bolus insulin ratio in patients with type 2 diabetes who maintain stable glycaemic control.

BACKGROUND: For patients using basal-bolus insulin therapy, it is widespread clinical practice to aim for a 50-50 ratio between basal and total daily bolus. However, this practice was based on a small study of individuals without diabetes. To assess the rule in real-world practice, we retrospectively analyzed patients on basal-bolus therapy that was adjusted at least weekly by an artificial intelligence-driven titration within the d-Nav® Insulin Management Technology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained de-identified data from the Diabetes Centre of Ulster Hospital for patients with four inclusion criteria: type 2 Diabetes (T2D), on d-Nav >6 months, on basal-bolus insulin therapy >80% of the time (based on insulin analogs), and no gap in data >3 months. RESULTS: We assembled a cohort of 306 patients, followed by the d-Nav service for 3.4 ± 1.8 years (mean ± SD), corresponding to about 180 autonomous insulin dose titrations and about 5000 autonomous individual dose recommendations per patient. After an initial run-in period, mean glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) values in the cohort were maintained close to 7%. Surprisingly, in just over three-quarters of the cohort, the average basal insulin fraction was <50%; in half of the cohort average basal insulin fraction <41.2%; and in one-quarter the basal insulin fraction was <33.6%. Further, the basal insulin fraction did not remain static over time. In half of the patients, the basal insulin fraction varied by ≥1.9×; and, in 25% of the patients, ≥2.5×. CONCLUSION: Our data show that a 50-50 ratio of basal-to-bolus insulin does not generally apply to patients with T2D who successfully maintain stable glycemia. Therefore, the 50-50 ratio should not serve as an ongoing treatment guide. Moreover, our results emphasize the importance of at least weekly insulin titrations.

A comparison of odor plume-tracking behavior of walking and flying insects in different turbulent environments.

Many animals locate food, mates and territories by following plumes of attractive odors. There are clear differences in the structure of this plume-tracking behavior depending on whether an animal is flying, swimming, walking or crawling. These differences could arise from different control rules used by the central nervous system during these different modes of locomotion or one set of rules interacting with the different environments while walking on the surface versus flying or swimming. Flow speeds and turbulence that characterize the environments where walking and flying insects track plumes may alter the structure of odor plumes in an environment-specific way that results in the same control rules generating behaviors that appear quite different. We tested these ideas by challenging walking male cockroaches, Periplaneta americana, and flying male moths, Manduca sexta, to track plumes of their species' sex pheromones in low wind speeds characteristic of cockroach experimental environments, higher wind speeds characteristic of moth experimental environments, and conditions ranging from low to high turbulence. Introducing a turbulence-generating structure into the flow significantly improved the flying plume tracker's ability to locate the odor source, and changed the structure of the behavior of both flying and walking plume trackers. Our results support the idea that plume trackers moving slowly along the substrate may use the spatial distribution of odor, while faster moving flying plume trackers may use the timing of odor encounters to steer to locate the source.

Multiple sclerosis and the risk of infection: Association of British Neurologists consensus guideline.

Infection in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) is of major concern, particularly for those receiving disease-modifying therapies. This article explores the risk of infection in people with MS and provides guidance-developed by Delphi consensus by specialists involved in their management-on how to screen for, prevent and manage infection in this population.

Response to COVID-19 booster vaccinations in seronegative people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: People with MS treated with anti-CD20 therapies and fingolimod often have attenuated responses to initial COVID-19 vaccination. However, uncertainties remain about the benefit of a 3rd (booster) COVID-19 vaccine in this group. METHODS: PwMS without a detectable IgG response following COVID-19 vaccines 1&2 were invited to participate. Participants provided a dried blood spot +/- venous blood sample 2-12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccine 3. Humoral and T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and nucleocapsid antigen were measured. RESULTS: Of 81 participants, 79 provided a dried blood spot sample, of whom 38 also provided a whole blood sample; 2 provided only whole blood. Anti-SARS-CoV-2-spike IgG seroconversion post-COVID-19 vaccine 3 occurred in 26/79 (33%) participants; 26/40 (65%) had positive T-cell responses. Overall, 31/40 (78%) demonstrated either humoral or cellular immune response post-COVID-19 vaccine 3. There was no association between laboratory evidence of prior COVID-19 and seroconversion following vaccine 3. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one third of pwMS who were seronegative after initial COVID-19 vaccination seroconverted after booster (third) vaccination, supporting the use of boosters in this group. Almost 8 out of 10 had a measurable immune response following 3rd COVID-19 vaccine.

Factors Driving Resistance to Clinical Decision Support: Finding Inspiration in Radiology 3.0.

PURPOSE: The effectiveness of evidence-based guidelines (EBGs) and clinical decision support (CDS) is significantly hampered by widespread clinician resistance to it. Our study was designed to better understand the reasons for this resistance to CDS and explore the factors that drive it. METHODS: We used a mixed-methods approach to explore and identify the drivers of resistance for CDS among clinicians, including a web-based multispecialty survey exploring clinicians' impressions of the strengths and weaknesses of CDS, two clinician focus groups, and several one-on-one focused clinician interviews in which individual participants were asked to comment on their rationale for choosing imaging utilization that might not be supported by EBGs. Additionally, a unique electronic learning and assessment module known as Amplifire was used to probe clinician knowledge gaps regarding EBGs and CDS. RESULTS: In both the quantitative and qualitative portions of the study, the primary factor driving resistance to CDS was a desire to order studies not supported by EBGs, primarily for the purpose of reducing the clinician's diagnostic uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that to enhance the effectiveness of CDS, we must first address the issue of clinician discomfort with diagnostic uncertainty and the role of imaging via educational outreach and ongoing radiologist consultation.

COVID-19 Vaccine Response in People with Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of disease modifying therapies on immune response to severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Four hundred seventy-three people with MS provided one or more dried blood spot samples. Information about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and vaccine history, medical, and drug history were extracted from questionnaires and medical records. Dried blood spots were eluted and tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Antibody titers were partitioned into tertiles with people on no disease modifying therapy as a reference. We calculated the odds ratio of seroconversion (univariate logistic regression) and compared quantitative vaccine response (Kruskal Wallis) following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine according to disease modifying therapy. We used regression modeling to explore the effect of vaccine timing, treatment duration, age, vaccine type, and lymphocyte count on vaccine response. RESULTS: Compared to no disease modifying therapy, the use of anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (odds ratio = 0.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.01-0.06, p < 0.001) and fingolimod (odds ratio = 0.04; 95% CI = 0.01-0.12) were associated with lower seroconversion following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. All other drugs did not differ significantly from the untreated cohort. Both time since last anti-CD20 treatment and total time on treatment were significantly associated with the response to the vaccination. The vaccine type significantly predicted seroconversion, but not in those on anti-CD20 medications. Preliminary data on cellular T-cell immunity showed 40% of seronegative subjects had measurable anti-SARS-CoV-2 T cell responses. INTERPRETATION: Some disease modifying therapies convey risk of attenuated serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in people with MS. We provide recommendations for the practical management of this patient group. ANN NEUROL 20219999:n/a-n/a.

An automated computational approach to kinetic model discrimination and parameter estimation.

We herein report experimental applications of a novel, automated computational approach to chemical reaction network (CRN) identification. This report shows the first chemical applications of an autonomous tool to identify the kinetic model and parameters of a process, when considering both catalytic species and various integer and non-integer orders in the model's rate laws. This kinetic analysis methodology requires only the input of the species within the chemical system (starting materials, intermediates, products, etc.) and corresponding time-series concentration data to determine the kinetic information of the chemistry of interest. This is performed with minimal human interaction and several case studies were performed to show the wide scope and applicability of this process development tool. The approach described herein can be employed using experimental data from any source and the code for this methodology is also provided open-source.

COVID-19: Mechanistic model calibration subject to active and varying non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Mathematical models are useful in epidemiology to understand COVID-19 contagion dynamics. We aim to demonstrate the effectiveness of parameter regression methods to calibrate an established epidemiological model describing infection rates subject to active, varying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We assess the potential of established chemical engineering modelling principles and practice applied to epidemiological systems. We exploit the sophisticated parameter regression functionality of a commercial chemical engineering simulator with piecewise continuous integration, event and discontinuity management. We develop a strategy for calibrating and validating a model. Our results using historic data from 4 countries provide insights into on-going disease suppression measures, while visualisation of reported data provides up-to-date condition monitoring of the pandemic status. The effective reproduction number response to NPIs is non-linear with variable response rate, magnitude and direction. Our purpose is developing a methodology without presenting a fully optimised model, or attempting to predict future course of the COVID-19 pandemic.