What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean's twilight zone.

Paleontological reconstructions of plankton community structure during warm periods of the Cenozoic (last 66 million years) reveal that deep-dwelling 'twilight zone' (200-1000 m) plankton were less abundant and diverse, and lived much closer to the surface, than in colder, more recent climates. We suggest that this is a consequence of temperature's role in controlling the rate that sinking organic matter is broken down and metabolized by bacteria, a process that occurs faster at warmer temperatures. In a warmer ocean, a smaller fraction of organic matter reaches the ocean interior, affecting food supply and dissolved oxygen availability at depth. Using an Earth system model that has been evaluated against paleo observations, we illustrate how anthropogenic warming may impact future carbon cycling and twilight zone ecology. Our findings suggest that significant changes are already underway, and without strong emissions mitigation, widespread ecological disruption in the twilight zone is likely by 2100, with effects spanning millennia thereafter.

The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties.

The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of -0.15 to -1.44 Pg C y-1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies.

Exploring the impact of climate change on the global distribution of non-spinose planktonic foraminifera using a trait-based ecosystem model.

Planktonic foraminifera are one of the primary calcifiers in the modern ocean, contributing 23%-56% of total global pelagic carbonate production. However, a mechanistic understanding of how physiology and environmental conditions control their abundance and distribution is lacking, hindering the projection of the impact of future climate change. This understanding is important, not only for ecosystem dynamics, but also for marine carbon cycling because of foraminifera's key role in carbonate production. Here we present and apply a global trait-based ecosystem model of non-spinose planktonic foraminifera ('ForamEcoGEnIE') to assess their ecology and global distribution under future climate change. ForamEcoGEnIE considers the traits of calcium carbonate production, shell size, and foraging. It captures the main characteristic of biogeographical patterns of non-spinose species - with maximum biomass concentrations found in mid- to high-latitude waters and upwelling areas. The model also reproduces the magnitude of global carbonate production relatively well, although the foraminifera standing stock is systematically overestimated. In response to future scenarios of rising atmospheric CO2 (RCP6 and RCP8.5), on a regional scale, the modelled foraminifera biomass and export flux increases in the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean while it decreases everywhere else. In the absence of adaptation, the biomass decline in the low-latitude South Pacific suggests extirpation. The model projects a global average loss in non-spinose foraminifera biomass between 8% (RCP6) and 11% (RCP8.5) by 2050 and between 14% and 18% by 2100 as a response to ocean warming and associated changes in primary production and ecological dynamics. Global calcium carbonate flux associated with non-spinose foraminifera declines by 13%-18% by 2100. That decline can slow down the ocean carbonate pump and create short-term positive feedback on rising atmospheric pCO2 .

Cyanobacteria and biogeochemical cycles through Earth history.

Cyanobacteria are the only prokaryotes to have evolved oxygenic photosynthesis, transforming the biology and chemistry of our planet. Genomic and evolutionary studies have revolutionized our understanding of early oxygenic phototrophs, complementing and dramatically extending inferences from the geologic record. Molecular clock estimates point to a Paleoarchean origin (3.6-3.2 billion years ago, bya) of the core proteins of Photosystem II (PSII) involved in oxygenic photosynthesis and a Mesoarchean origin (3.2-2.8 bya) for the last common ancestor of modern cyanobacteria. Nonetheless, most extant cyanobacteria diversified after the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), an environmental watershed ca. 2.45 bya made possible by oxygenic photosynthesis. Throughout their evolutionary history, cyanobacteria have played a key role in the global carbon cycle.