Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.

High habitat richness reduces the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe: A multi-scale study.

Background: The natural transmission cycle of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is enhanced by complex interactions between ticks and key hosts strongly connected to habitat characteristics. The diversity of wildlife host species and their relative abundance is known to affect transmission of tick-borne diseases. Therefore, in the current context of global biodiversity loss, we explored the relationship between habitat richness and the pattern of human TBE cases in Europe to assess biodiversity's role in disease risk mitigation. Methods: We assessed human TBE case distribution across 879 European regions using official epidemiological data reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) between 2017 and 2021 from 15 countries. We explored the relationship between TBE presence and the habitat richness index (HRI1) by means of binomial regression. We validated our findings at local scale using data collected between 2017 and 2021 in 227 municipalities located in Trento and Belluno provinces, two known TBE foci in northern Italy. Findings: Our results showed a significant parabolic effect of HRI on the probability of presence of human TBE cases in the European regions included in our dataset, and a significant, negative effect of HRI on the local presence of TBE in northern Italy. At both spatial scales, TBE risk decreases in areas with higher values of HRI. Interpretation: To our knowledge, no efforts have yet been made to explore the relationship between biodiversity and TBE risk, probably due to the scarcity of high-resolution, large-scale data about the abundance or density of critical host species. Hence, in this study we considered habitat richness as proxy for vertebrate host diversity. The results suggest that in highly diverse habitats TBE risk decreases. Hence, biodiversity loss could enhance TBE risk for both humans and wildlife. This association is relevant to support the hypothesis that the maintenance of highly diverse ecosystems mitigates disease risk.

Ecological and environmental factors affecting the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe, 2017 to 2021.

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a disease which can lead to severe neurological symptoms, caused by the TBE virus (TBEV). The natural transmission cycle occurs in foci and involves ticks as vectors and several key hosts that act as reservoirs and amplifiers of the infection spread. Recently, the incidence of TBE in Europe has been rising in both endemic and new regions.AimIn this study we want to provide comprehensive understanding of the main ecological and environmental factors that affect TBE spread across Europe.MethodsWe searched available literature on covariates linked with the circulation of TBEV in Europe. We then assessed the best predictors for TBE incidence in 11 European countries by means of statistical regression, using data on human infections provided by the European Surveillance System (TESSy), averaged between 2017 and 2021.ResultsWe retrieved data from 62 full-text articles and identified 31 different covariates associated with TBE occurrence. Finally, we selected eight variables from the best model, including factors linked to vegetation cover, climate, and the presence of tick hosts.DiscussionThe existing literature is heterogeneous, both in study design and covariate types. Here, we summarised and statistically validated the covariates affecting the variability of TBEV across Europe. The analysis of the factors enhancing disease emergence is a fundamental step towards the identification of potential hotspots of viral circulation. Hence, our results can support modelling efforts to estimate the risk of TBEV infections and help decision-makers implement surveillance and prevention campaigns.

Long-lasting insecticidal nets provide protection against malaria for only a single year in Burundi, an African highland setting with marked malaria seasonality.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are one of the key interventions in the global fight against malaria. Since 2014, mass distribution campaigns of LLINs aim for universal access by all citizens of Burundi. In this context, we assess the impact of LLINs mass distribution campaigns on malaria incidence, focusing on the endemic highland health districts. We also explored the possible correlation between observed trends in malaria incidence with any variations in climate conditions. METHODS: Malaria cases for 2011-2019 were obtained from the National Health Information System. We developed a generalised additive model based on a time series of routinely collected data with malaria incidence as the response variable and timing of LLIN distribution as an explanatory variable to investigate the duration and magnitude of the LLIN effect on malaria incidence. We added a seasonal and continuous-time component as further explanatory variables, and health district as a random effect to account for random natural variation in malaria cases between districts. RESULTS: Malaria transmission in Burundian highlands was clearly seasonal and increased non-linearly over the study period. Further, a fast and steep decline of malaria incidence was noted during the first year after mass LLIN distribution (p<0.0001). In years 2 and 3 after distribution, malaria cases started to rise again to levels higher than before the control intervention. CONCLUSION: This study highlights that LLINs did reduce the incidence in the first year after a mass distribution campaign, but in the context of Burundi, LLINs lost their impact after only 1 year.

Modelling the West Nile virus force of infection in the European human population.

West Nile virus (WNV) is among the most recent emerging mosquito-borne pathogens in Europe where each year hundreds of human cases are recorded. We developed a relatively simple technique to model the WNV force of infection (FOI) in the human population to assess its dependence on environmental and human demographic factors. To this aim, we collated WNV human case-based data reported to the European Surveillance System from 15 European Countries during the period 2010-2021. We modelled the regional WNV FOI for each year through normal distributions and calibrated the constituent parameters, namely average (peak timing), variance and overall intensity, to observed cases. Finally, we investigated through regression models how these parameters are associated to a set of climatic, environmental and human demographic covariates. Our modelling approach shows good agreement between expected and observed epidemiological curves. We found that FOI magnitude is positively associated with spring temperature and larger in more anthropogenic semi-natural areas, while FOI peak timing is negatively related to summer temperature. Unsurprisingly, FOI is estimated to be greater in regions with a larger fraction of elderly people, who are more likely to contract severe infections. Our results confirm that temperature plays a key role in shaping WNV transmission in Europe and provide some interesting hints on how human presence and demography might affect WNV burden. This simple yet reliable approach could be easily adopted for early warning and to address epidemiological investigations of other vector-borne diseases, especially where eco-epidemiological data are scarce.

Past, present and future distribution of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti: The European paradox.

The global distribution of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti is the subject of considerable attention because of its pivotal role as a biological vector of several high profile disease pathogens including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. There is also a lot of interest in the projected future species' distribution. However, less effort has been focused on its historical distribution, which has changed substantially over the past 100 years, especially in southern Europe where it was once widespread, but largely disappeared by the middle of the 20th century. The present work utilises all available historical records of the distribution of Ae. aegypti in southern Europe, the Near East within the Mediterranean Basin and North Africa from the late 19th century until the 1960's to construct a spatial distribution model using matching historical climatic and demographic data. The resulting model was then implemented using current climate and demographic data to assess the potential distribution of the vector in the present. The models were rerun with several different assumptions about the thresholds that determine habitat suitability for Ae. aegypti. The historical model matches the historical distributions well. When it is run with current climate values, the predicted present day distribution is somewhat broader than it used to be particularly in north-west France, North Africa and Turkey. Though it is beginning to reappear in the eastern Caucasus, this 'potential' distribution clearly does not match the actual distribution of the species, which suggests some other factors are responsible for its absence. Future distributions based on the historical model also do not match future distributions derived from models based only on present day vector distributions, which predict little or no presence in the Mediterranean Region. At the same time, the vector is widespread in the USA which is predicted to consolidate its range there in future. This contradiction and the implication for possible re-invasion of Europe are discussed.

VectorNet: Putting Vectors on the Map.

Public and animal health authorities face many challenges in surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases. Those challenges are principally due to the multitude of interactions between vertebrate hosts, pathogens, and vectors in continuously changing environments. VectorNet, a joint project of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) facilitates risk assessments of VBD threats through the collection, mapping and sharing of distribution data for ticks, mosquitoes, sand flies, and biting midges that are vectors of pathogens of importance to animal and/or human health in Europe. We describe the development and maintenance of this One Health network that celebrated its 10th anniversary in 2020 and the value of its most tangible outputs, the vector distribution maps, that are freely available online and its raw data on request. VectorNet encourages usage of these maps by health professionals and participation, sharing and usage of the raw data by the network and other experts in the science community. For the latter, a more complete technical description of the mapping procedure will be submitted elsewhere.

A Case for Systematic Quality Management in Mosquito Control Programmes in Europe.

The recent spread of invasive mosquito species, such as Aedes albopictus and the seasonal sporadic transmission of autochthonous cases of arboviral diseases (e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika) in temperate areas, such as Europe and North America, highlight the importance of effective mosquito-control interventions to reduce not only nuisance, but also major threats for public health. Local, regional, and even national mosquito control programs have been established in many countries and are executed on a seasonal basis by either public or private bodies. In order for these interventions to be worthwhile, funding authorities should ensure that mosquito control is (a) planned by competent scientific institutions addressing the local demands, (b) executed following the plan that is based on recommended and effective methods and strategies, (c) monitored regularly by checking the efficacy of the implemented actions, (d) evaluated against the set of targets, and (e) regularly improved according to the results of the monitoring. Adherence to these conditions can only be assured if a formal quality management system is adopted and enforced that ensures the transparency of effectiveness of the control operation. The current paper aims at defining the two components of this quality management system, quality assurance and quality control for mosquito control programs with special emphasis on Europe, but applicable over temperate areas.

Surveillance of Ixodes ricinus ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: Ixodes ricinus is a three-host tick, a principal vector of Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) and one of the main vectors of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus. Iceland is located in the North Atlantic Ocean with subpolar oceanic climate. During the past 3-4 decades, average temperature has increased, supporting more favourable conditions for ticks. Reports of I. ricinus have increased in recent years. If these ticks were able to establish in a changing climate, Iceland may face new threats posed by tick-borne diseases. METHODS: Active field surveillance by tick flagging was conducted at 111 sites around Iceland from August 2015 to September 2016. Longworth mammal traps were used to trap Apodemus sylvaticus in southwestern and southern Iceland. Surveillance on tick importation by migratory birds was conducted in southeastern Iceland, using bird nets and a Heligoland trap. Vulpes lagopus carcasses from all regions of the country were inspected for ticks. In addition, existing and new passive surveillance data from two institutes have been merged and are presented. Continental probability of presence models were produced. Boosted Regression Trees spatial modelling methods and its predictions were assessed against reported presence. RESULTS: By field sampling 26 questing I. ricinus ticks (7 males, 3 females and 16 nymphs) were collected from vegetation from three locations in southern and southeastern Iceland. Four ticks were found on migratory birds at their arrival in May 2016. A total of 52 A. sylvaticus were live-trapped but no ticks were found nor on 315 V. lagopus carcasses. Passive surveillance data collected since 1976, reports further 214 I. ricinus ticks from 202 records, with an increase of submissions in recent years. The continental probability of presence model correctly predicts approximately 75% of the recorded presences, but fails to predict a fairly specific category of recorded presence in areas where the records are probably opportunistic and not likely to lead to establishment. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first finding of questing I. ricinus ticks in Iceland. The species could possibly be established locally in Iceland in low abundance, although no questing larvae have yet been detected to confirm established populations. Submitted tick records have increased recently, which may reflect an increase in exposure, or in interest in ticks. Furthermore, the amount of records on dogs, cats and humans indicate that ticks were acquired locally, presenting a local biting risk. Tick findings on migratory birds highlight a possible route of importation. Obtaining questing larvae is now a priority to confirm that I. ricinus populations are established in Iceland. Further surveys on wild mammals (e.g. Rangifer tarandus), livestock and migratory birds are recommended to better understand their role as potential hosts for I. ricinus.

Mapping Disease Data: A Usability Test of an Internet-Based System of Disease Status Disclosure.

Disease maps are important tools in the management of disease. By communicating risk, disease maps can help raise awareness of disease and encourage farmers and veterinarians to employ best practice to eliminate the spread of disease. However, despite the importance of disease maps in communicating risk and the existence of various online disease maps, there are few studies that explicitly examine their usability. Where disease maps are complicated to use, it seems that they are unlikely to be used effectively. The paper outlines an attempt to create an open access, online, searchable map of incidents of bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales, and analyzes its usability among veterinarians. The paper describes the process of creating the map before describing the results of a series of usability trials. Results show the map to score highly on different measures of usability. However, the trials also revealed a number of social and technical limitations and challenges facing the use of online disease maps, including reputational dangers, role confusion, data accuracy, and data representation. The paper considers the challenges facing disease maps and their potential role in designing new methodologies to evaluate the effectiveness of disease prevention initiatives.

Income Disparities and the Global Distribution of Intensively Farmed Chicken and Pigs.

The rapid transformation of the livestock sector in recent decades brought concerns on its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, disruptions to nitrogen and phosphorous cycles and on land use change, particularly deforestation for production of feed crops. Animal and human health are increasingly interlinked through emerging infectious diseases, zoonoses, and antimicrobial resistance. In many developing countries, the rapidity of change has also had social impacts with increased risk of marginalisation of smallholder farmers. However, both the impacts and benefits of livestock farming often differ between extensive (backyard farming mostly for home-consumption) and intensive, commercial production systems (larger herd or flock size, higher investments in inputs, a tendency towards market-orientation). A density of 10,000 chickens per km2 has different environmental, epidemiological and societal implications if these birds are raised by 1,000 individual households or in a single industrial unit. Here, we introduce a novel relationship that links the national proportion of extensively raised animals to the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (in purchasing power parity). This relationship is modelled and used together with the global distribution of rural population to disaggregate existing 10 km resolution global maps of chicken and pig distributions into extensive and intensive systems. Our results highlight countries and regions where extensive and intensive chicken and pig production systems are most important. We discuss the sources of uncertainties, the modelling assumptions and ways in which this approach could be developed to forecast future trajectories of intensification.

Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.

Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.

Modelling the distribution of domestic ducks in Monsoon Asia.

Domestic ducks are considered to be an important reservoir of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as shown by a number of geospatial studies in which they have been identified as a significant risk factor associated with disease presence. Despite their importance in HPAI epidemiology, their large-scale distribution in monsoon Asia is poorly understood. In this study, we created a spatial database of domestic duck census data in Asia and used it to train statistical distribution models for domestic duck distributions at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The method was based on a modelling framework used by the Food and Agriculture Organisation to produce the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, and relies on stratified regression models between domestic duck densities and a set of agro-ecological explanatory variables. We evaluated different ways of stratifying the analysis and of combining the prediction to optimize the goodness of fit of the predictions. We found that domestic duck density could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (mean RMSE and correlation coefficient between log-transformed observed and predicted densities being 0.58 and 0.80, respectively), using a stratification based on livestock production systems. We tested the use of artificially degraded data on duck distributions in Thailand and Vietnam as training data, and compared the modelled outputs with the original high-resolution data. This showed, for these two countries at least, that these approaches could be used to accurately disaggregate provincial level (administrative level 1) statistical data to provide high resolution model distributions.

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China.

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for » of the sample data which was not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

The global livestock impact mapping system (GLIMS) as a tool for animal health applications.

Recent concerns expressed by various national and international organisations about global livestock sector development and its consequences on the environment and on human and animal health suggest the need to reinforce efforts to monitor and collect more accurate and detailed statistics on livestock. Modern technologies for the organisation, analysis, dissemination and presentation of data and results enhance the contribution that these statistics can make towards the planning of efficient and sustainable animal production and health interventions. To this end, the Food and Agriculture Organization Animal Production and Health Division (FAO-AGA) has developed the Global Livestock Impact Mapping System (GLIMS). GLIMS provides a repository for sub-national data pertaining to the livestock sector and produces and distributes, through various channels and formats, a number of global public products, namely: the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW), mapping the spatial distribution of the main livestock species, the Global Livestock Production and Health Atlas (GLiPHA), disseminating sub-national geo-referenced statistics, and the AGA Livestock Sector Briefs, which are concise national reports on the livestock sector. These products have a variety of applications. The authors focus attention on applications in the field of animal health, both to increase knowledge of the occurrence of livestock diseases and to assess their impact.

Veterinary Web-geographic information systems: what's the point and what's involved?

Geographic information systems (GIS) in general, and Web-based GIS in particular, are changing very rapidly because of the simultaneous increases in and sophistication of software, processing power, data storage capacity and available bandwidth. The spread of globalisation, with its consequent impact on trade, information exchange networks and emerging diseases, has meant that the demand for Web-based GIS is exploding. This has been compounded by the comparative speed with which basic sites can now be constructed. An active data site with a GIS element is a must-have for all self-respecting data-rich projects. There is a wide range of issues which should be considered before a GIS website can be launched - its function and appearance, its content and audience, its maintenance and stability and the implementation. There are also issues of technical complexity and data formats, levels of access, confidentiality and accreditation, or quality control and data validation, all of which must be addressed if a site is to be both reliable and effective. These and other topics are considered in some detail, with examples from around the Net.

The Food and Agriculture Organization's Gridded Livestock of the World.

Livestock sector planning, policy development and analysis are frequently hampered by the paucity of reliable and accessible information on the distribution, abundance and use of livestock. In an attempt to redress this shortfall, the Food and Agriculture Organization's Animal Production and Health Division (FAO-AGA) has, in collaboration with the Environmental Research Group Oxford, developed the 'Gridded Livestock of the World' database which provide the first standardised global, sub-national resolution maps of the major agricultural livestock species. These are now freely available for download on the FAO website. The data are produced in Environmental Systems Research Institute grid format for cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry. The map values are animal densities per square kilometre, at a resolution of 3 minutes of arc (approximately 5 km at the Equator), and are derived from official census and survey data. Reported statistics are then processed using a combination of suitability masking and spatial disaggregation by statistical modelling of livestock densities based on empirical relationships between livestock densities and environmental variables in similar agro-ecological zones. The spatial nature of these livestock data allows a wide array of applications. Livestock distribution data give an estimation of production; they evaluate impact (both of and on livestock) by applying a variety of rates; and they provide the denominator in prevalence and incidence estimates for epidemiological applications, and the host distributions for transmission models.