Medications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a historical non-interventional cohort study with validation against RCT results.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treatment is informed by randomised controlled trial results, but it is unclear if these findings apply to people excluded from these trials. We used data from the TORCH (TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health) randomised controlled trial to validate non-interventional methods for assessing the clinical effectiveness of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treatment in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, before applying these methods to the analysis of people who would have been excluded from TORCH. OBJECTIVES: To validate the use of non-interventional Clinical Practice Research Datalink data and methods for estimating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treatment effects against trial results, and, using validated methods, to determine treatment effects in people who would have been excluded from the TORCH trial. DESIGN: A historical non-interventional cohort design, including validation against randomised controlled trial results. SETTING: The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. PARTICIPANTS: People aged ≥ 18 years with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease registered in Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD between January 2000 and January 2017. For objective 1, we prepared a cohort that was analogous to the TORCH trial cohort by applying TORCH trial inclusion/exclusion criteria followed by individual matching to TORCH trial participants. For objectives 2 and 3, we prepared cohorts that were analogous to the TORCH trial that, nevertheless, would not have been eligible for the TORCH trial because of age, asthma, comorbidity or mild disease. INTERVENTIONS: The long-acting beta-2 agonist and inhaled corticosteroid combination product Seretide (GlaxoSmithKline plc) [i.e. fluticasone propionate plus salmeterol (FP-SAL)] compared with (1) no FP-SAL exposure or (2) exposure to salmeterol (i.e. the long-acting beta-2 agonist) only. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Exacerbations, mortality, pneumonia and time to treatment change. RESULTS: For objective 1, the exacerbation rate ratio was comparable to that in the TORCH trial for FP-SAL compared with salmeterol (0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.97, vs. TORCH trial 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.95), but not for FP-SAL compared with no FP-SAL (1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.42, vs. TORCH trial 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 0.81). Active comparator results were also consistent with the TORCH trial for mortality (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.65 to 1.32, vs. TORCH trial hazard ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.13) and pneumonia (risk ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.87, vs. TORCH trial risk ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 1.73). For objectives 2 and 3, active comparator results were consistent with the TORCH trial for exacerbations, with the exception of people with milder chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, in whom we observed a stronger protective association (risk ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.70, vs. TORCH trial risk ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.97). For the analysis of mortality, we saw a lack of association with being prescribed FP-SAL (vs. being prescribed salmeterol), with the exception of those with prior asthma, for whom we observed an increase in mortality (hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.85, vs. TORCH trial-analogous HR 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.32). CONCLUSIONS: Routinely collected electronic health record data can be used to successfully measure chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treatment effects when comparing two treatments, but not for comparisons between active treatment and no treatment. Analyses involving patients who would have been excluded from trials mostly suggests that treatment effects for FP-SAL are similar to trial effects, although further work is needed to characterise a small increased risk of death in those with concomitant asthma. LIMITATIONS: Some of our analyses had small numbers. FUTURE WORK: The differences in treatment effects that we found should be investigated further in other data sets. Currently recommended chronic obstructive pulmonary disease inhaled combination therapy (other than FP-SAL) should also be investigated using these methods. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 51. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease affects 3 million people in the UK and is characterised by breathing difficulties that get worse over time, with sudden acute symptoms (exacerbations), possibly requiring hospitalisation. The evidence for use of medicines for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comes from randomised controlled trial results. Randomised controlled trials generally include younger people with severe disease who do not have any other illnesses apart from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, meaning that the effectiveness of these trials in all people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is unknown. Very large databases of anonymous electronic health records captured during NHS consultations can be used to study patients excluded from trials. However, confidence in results from studies using these data can be low because of fears of unaccounted bias, as patients are not randomised to treatment. In this project, we selected a group of patients from a very large electronic health record database called the Clinical Practice Research Datalink who were very similar to participants in a well-known large chronic obstructive pulmonary disease randomised controlled trial [the TORCH (TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health) trial]. When we analysed data from these patients, we found very similar results to the TORCH trial in relation to the reduction of exacerbations, development of pneumonia and time until death, when comparing one chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treatment with another. Having shown that our methods could be trusted to produce valid results when comparing one chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treatment with another, we then went on to analyse patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink who would have been excluded from the TORCH trial for the following reasons: aged > 80 years, having asthma as well as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or having only mild chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. For exacerbations, we found that, for people with milder chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, one of the treatments we studied seemed to work better than in the trial. For the analysis of mortality, we found that, for people with asthma as well as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, one of the treatments seemed not to work so well, with more people dying. Future studies are needed in different populations (such as in a database from another country) to confirm these results.

Real world effects of COPD medications: a cohort study with validation against results from randomised controlled trials.

Real-world data provide the potential for generating evidence on drug treatment effects in groups excluded from trials, but rigorous, validated methodology for doing so is lacking. We investigated whether non-interventional methods applied to real-world data could reproduce results from the landmark TORCH COPD trial.We performed a historical cohort study (2000-2017) of COPD drug treatment effects in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Two control groups were selected from CPRD by applying TORCH inclusion/exclusion criteria and 1:1 matching to TORCH participants, as follows. Control group 1: people with COPD not prescribed fluticasone propionate (FP)-salmeterol (SAL); control group 2: people with COPD prescribed SAL only. FP-SAL exposed groups were then selected from CPRD by propensity score matching to each control group. Outcomes studied were COPD exacerbations, death from any cause and pneumonia.2652 FP-SAL exposed people were propensity score matched to 2652 FP-SAL unexposed people while 991 FP-SAL exposed people were propensity score matched to 991 SAL exposed people. Exacerbation rate ratio was comparable to TORCH for FP-SAL versus SAL (0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.97 versus 0.88, 0.81-0.95) but not for FP-SAL versus no FP-SAL (1.30, 1.19-1.42 versus 0.75, 0.69-0.81). In addition, active comparator results were consistent with TORCH for mortality (hazard ratio 0.93, 0.65-1.32 versus 0.93, 0.77-1.13) and pneumonia (risk ratio 1.39, 1.04-1.87 versus 1.47, 1.25-1.73).We obtained very similar results to the TORCH trial for active comparator analyses, but were unable to reproduce placebo-controlled results. Application of these validated methods for active comparator analyses to groups excluded from randomised controlled trials provides a practical way for contributing to the evidence base and supporting COPD treatment decisions.

Real-world effects of medications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: protocol for a UK population-based non-interventional cohort study with validation against randomised trial results.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive disease affecting 3 million people in the UK, in which patients exhibit airflow obstruction that is not fully reversible. COPD treatment guidelines are largely informed by randomised controlled trial results, but it is unclear if these findings apply to large patient populations not studied in trials. Non-interventional studies could be used to study patient groups excluded from trials, but the use of these studies to estimate treatment effectiveness is in its infancy. In this study, we will use individual trial data to validate non-interventional methods for assessing COPD treatment effectiveness, before applying these methods to the analysis of treatment effectiveness within people excluded from, or under-represented in COPD trials. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Using individual patient data from the landmark COPD Towards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) trial and validated methods for detecting COPD and exacerbations in routinely collected primary care data, we will assemble a cohort in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (selecting people between 1 January 2004 and 1 January 2017) with similar characteristics to TORCH participants and test whether non-interventional data can generate comparable results to trials, using cohort methodology with propensity score techniques to adjust for potential confounding. We will then use the methodological template we have developed to determine risks and benefits of COPD treatments in people excluded from TORCH. Outcomes are pneumonia, COPD exacerbation, mortality and time to treatment change. Groups to be studied include the elderly (>80 years), people with substantial comorbidity, people with and without underlying cardiovascular disease and people with mild COPD. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Ethics Committee (Ref: 11997). The study has been approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee of the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (protocol no. 17_114R). An application to use the TORCH trial data made to clinicalstudydatarequest.com has been approved. In addition to scientific publications, dissemination methods will be developed based on discussions with patient groups with COPD.

A threshold trajectory was revealed by isolating the effects of hemoglobin rate of rise in anemia of chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: To assess cardiovascular risk among various hemoglobin (Hb) rates of rise (RoR) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients with anemia who have initiated therapy with erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs). METHODS: Observational cohort of CKD patients initiating ESA therapy from the Centricity® database, 1990-2011. Proportional hazards models tested the hypothesis that a slower Hb RoR (0 < g/dl/month ⩽ 0.125) is associated with a lower cardiovascular (CV) incidence [composite of fatal/nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] compared with faster RoR (0.125 < g/dl/month ⩽ 2.0, and >2.0 g/dl/month). RESULTS: A total of 9220 patients receiving ESAs were followed for an average of 3.1 years. Slow (group B) RoR versus medium (group C') and fast (group D') RoR in Hb, throughout all Hb milestones, was associated with lower risk of the composite endpoint [B (slow) versus D' (fast) [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.20 (0.11, 0.39), p < 0.0001]; B versus C' (medium) [HR = 0.34 (0.19, 0.62), p = 0.0004], and C' versus D' [HR = 0.60 (0.42, 0.85), p = 0.005]]. Within achieved Hb milestones, HRs were: B versus D' at milestone ⩾ 14.1 g/dl [HR = 0.17 (0.05, 0.56); p = 0.004] and at milestone 12.6-14.0 [HR = 0.18 (0.07, 0.46), p = 0.0004]. CONCLUSION: Rapid Hb rise is associated with adverse CV outcomes, with markedly lower risk for rates below a threshold trajectory of 0.125 g/dl/month, even with complete correction.

Benefit-risk assessment in a post-market setting: a case study integrating real-life experience into benefit-risk methodology.

PURPOSE: Difficulties may be encountered when undertaking a benefit-risk assessment for an older product with well-established use but with a benefit-risk balance that may have changed over time. This case study investigates this specific situation by applying a formal benefit-risk framework to assess the benefit-risk balance of warfarin for primary prevention of patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We used the qualitative framework BRAT as the starting point of the benefit-risk analysis, bringing together the relevant available evidence. We explored the use of a quantitative method (stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis) to demonstrate how uncertainties and preferences on multiple criteria can be integrated into a single measure to reduce cognitive burden and increase transparency in decision making. RESULTS: Our benefit-risk model found that warfarin is favourable compared with placebo for the primary prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. This favourable benefit-risk balance is fairly robust to differences in preferences. The probability of a favourable benefit-risk for warfarin against placebo is high (0.99) in our model despite the high uncertainty of randomised clinical trial data. In this case study, we identified major challenges related to the identification of relevant benefit-risk criteria and taking into account the diversity and quality of evidence available to inform the benefit-risk assessment. CONCLUSION: The main challenges in applying formal methods for medical benefit-risk assessment for a marketed drug are related to outcome definitions and data availability. Data exist from many different sources (both randomised clinical trials and observational studies), and the variability in the studies is large.

Development of a novel regulatory pharmacovigilance prioritisation system: an evaluation of its performance at the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.

BACKGROUND: The prioritisation of drug safety issues for further evaluation or regulatory action is critical to ensure that acceptable timelines and appropriate resource allocation are defined to meet public health and regulatory obligations. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to develop, pilot and implement a novel tool for prioritising pharmacovigilance issues within the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). METHODS: An initial system was developed empirically and then piloted over a 10-month period in the pharmacovigilance signal management meeting at the MHRA that discusses potential pharmacovigilance issues, and determines, through consensus, their priority and a timescale for action. The priority assigned by the tool was compared with the priority decided by collective judgement at the meeting. Once an acceptable level of concordance between the tool and the meeting had been achieved, the finalised tool was implemented into routine use at the MHRA, with an evaluation of its performance conducted after the first year. RESULTS: The Regulatory Pharmacovigilance Prioritisation System (RPPS) tool prioritises pharmacovigilance issues according to the following four broad categories, each with four inputs: strength of evidence, public health implications, agency regulatory obligations and public perceptions. A weighted scoring system links the inputs to a pre-defined number of points where if a threshold is reached then the points are awarded. The overall priority is determined by the sum of all points obtained from each of the inputs. The pilot study included a total of 73 pharmacovigilance issues during the 10-month study period, with an overall exact agreement between the RPPS priority and the collective judgement of the meeting of 60.3 %. Where exact agreement was not obtained, the RPPS generally prioritised the issues slightly higher than the meeting. Over the first year following implementation, the RPPS achieved an overall exact agreement of 82.2 %. CONCLUSION: Following the pilot study and implementation at the UK MHRA, the RPPS has provided a systematic approach to drug safety issue prioritisation that should help to reduce the subjectivity of reliance on individual judgement.

Menopausal hormone therapy and risk of gastrointestinal cancer: nested case-control study within a prospective cohort, and meta-analysis.

Use of menopausal hormone therapy (HT) has been associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer; evidence for its effect on other gastrointestinal cancers is limited. We conducted a nested case-control study within a UK cohort, and meta-analyses combining our results with those from published studies. Our study included women aged 50+ in the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD): 1,054 with oesophageal, 750 with gastric and 4,708 with colorectal cancer, and 5 age- and practice-matched controls per case. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer in relation to prospectively-recorded HT prescriptions were estimated by conditional logistic regression. Women prescribed HT had a reduced risk of oesophageal cancer (adjusted RR for 1+ vs. no HT prescriptions, 0.68, 95% CI 0.53-0.88; p = 0.004), gastric cancer (0.75, 0.54-1.05; p = 0.1) and colorectal cancer (0.81, 0.73-0.90; p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in cancer risk by HT type, estimated duration of HT use or between past and current users. In meta-analyses, risks for ever vs. never use of HT were significantly reduced for all three cancers (summary RR for oesophageal cancer, 0.68, 0.55-0.84, p < 0.001; for gastric cancer, 0.78, 0.65-0.94, p = 0.008; for colorectal cancer, 0.84, 0.81-0.88, p < 0.001). In high-income countries, estimated incidence over 5 years of these three cancers combined in women aged 50-64 was 2.9/1,000 in HT users and 3.6/1,000 in never users. The absolute reduction in risk of these cancers in HT users is small compared to the HT-associated increased risk of breast cancer.

Risks and benefits of (pharmaco)epidemiology.

Pharmacoepidemiology is a relatively young scientific discipline that has seen tremendous growth in interest over the past two decades. This is partly due to changes in the approval of new drugs, which often now require proactive studies to monitor and extend the knowledge of safety in the postauthorization period. Pharmacoepidemiology studies are observational in nature, in contrast to the randomized controlled trial which is the mainstay of drug development. This means that such studies need careful design and execution in order to maximize the benefits of proactive research in the 'real-life' clinical environment and minimize the risks of false results.

Oral bisphosphonates and risk of cancer of oesophagus, stomach, and colorectum: case-control analysis within a UK primary care cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the hypothesis that risk of oesophageal, but not of gastric or colorectal, cancer is increased in users of oral bisphosphonates. DESIGN: Nested case-control analysis within a primary care cohort of about 6 million people in the UK, with prospectively recorded information on prescribing of bisphosphonates. SETTING: UK General Practice Research Database cohort. PARTICIPANTS: Men and women aged 40 years or over-2954 with oesophageal cancer, 2018 with gastric cancer, and 10 641 with colorectal cancer, diagnosed in 1995-2005; five controls per case matched for age, sex, general practice, and observation time. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risks for incident invasive cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, and colorectum, adjusted for smoking, alcohol, and body mass index. RESULTS: The incidence of oesophageal cancer was increased in people with one or more previous prescriptions for oral bisphosphonates compared with those with no such prescriptions (relative risk 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to1.66; P=0.02). Risk of oesophageal cancer was significantly higher for 10 or more prescriptions (1.93, 1.37 to 2.70) than for one to nine prescriptions (0.93, 0.66 to 1.31) (P for heterogeneity=0.002), and for use for over 3 years (on average, about 5 years: relative risk v no prescription, 2.24, 1.47 to 3.43). Risk of oesophageal cancer did not differ significantly by bisphosphonate type, and risk in those with 10 or more bisphosphonate prescriptions did not vary by age, sex, smoking, alcohol intake, or body mass index; by diagnosis of osteoporosis, fracture, or upper gastrointestinal disease; or by prescription of acid suppressants, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, or corticosteroids. Cancers of the stomach and colorectum were not associated with prescription of bisphosphonate: relative risks for one or more versus no prescriptions were 0.87 (0.64 to 1.19) and 0.87 (0.77 to 1.00). The specificity of the association for oesophageal cancer argues against methodological problems in the selection of cases and controls or in the analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of oesophageal cancer increased with 10 or more prescriptions for oral bisphosphonates and with prescriptions over about a five year period. In Europe and North America, the incidence of oesophageal cancer at age 60-79 is typically 1 per 1000 population over five years, and this is estimated to increase to about 2 per 1000 with five years' use of oral bisphosphonates.

Post-licensure comparison of the safety profile of diphtheria/tetanus/whole cell pertussis/haemophilus influenza type b vaccine and a 5-in-1 diphtheria/tetanus/acellular pertussis/haemophilus influenza type b/polio vaccine in the United Kingdom.

General practitioner consultation data were used to compare the reactogenicity in infants of a 5-in-1 acellular pertussis vaccine (DTaP(5)/Hib/IPV) introduced in the United Kingdom in 2004 to the 4-in-1 whole cell-pertussis vaccine (DTwP/Hib) that it replaced. For each vaccine the incidence in the week following vaccination was compared to other periods to obtain a relative incidence. A lower relative incidence of crying, fever and local reactions was seen with DTaP(5)/Hib/IPV than DTwP/Hib. Although there were no other significant differences between vaccines the relative incidence was significantly above one on the day of vaccination for convulsions following DTwP/Hib and for apnoea/collapse following DTaP(5)/Hib/IPV.

New approaches to drug safety: a pharmacovigilance tool kit.

The importance of pharmacovigilance - the ongoing assessment of the safety of a marketed medicine - has been increasingly appreciated in recent years, owing in part to high-profile safety issues with widely used drugs. In response, strategies to improve the collection, integration and analysis of data related to post-marketing drug safety are being initiated or enhanced. In this article, we summarize the key tools that are available for pharmacovigilance, discuss which might be the most appropriate to use in different situations and consider the future directions of the field.

Investigation of the temporal association of Guillain-Barre syndrome with influenza vaccine and influenzalike illness using the United Kingdom General Practice Research Database.

In 1976, the national swine influenza vaccination program in the United States was suspended because of an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome. Subsequent studies of seasonal influenza vaccine have given conflicting results. The authors used the self-controlled case series method to investigate the relation of Guillain-Barré syndrome with influenza vaccine and influenzalike illness using cases recorded in the General Practice Research Database from 1990 to 2005 in the United Kingdom. The relative incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome within 90 days of vaccination was 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 1.40). In contrast, the relative incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome within 90 days of an influenzalike illness was 7.35 (95% confidence interval: 4.36, 12.38), with the greatest relative incidence (16.64, 95% confidence interval: 9.37, 29.54) within 30 days. The relative incidence was similar (0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.42, 1.89) when the analysis was restricted to a subset of validated cases. The authors found no evidence of an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after seasonal influenza vaccine. The finding of a greatly increased risk after influenzalike illness is consistent with anecdotal reports of a preceding respiratory illness in Guillain-Barré syndrome and has important implications for the risk/benefit assessment that would be carried out should pandemic vaccines be deployed in the future.

Prescribing of hormone therapy for menopause, tibolone, and bisphosphonates in women in the UK between 1991 and 2005.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine recent trends in the prescribing of hormone therapy for menopause, tibolone, and bisphosphonate preparations for the prevention or treatment of osteoporosis, in the UK in relation to publication of research evidence on the health effects of hormone therapy and subsequent changes in prescribing advice. METHODS: Individual patient-level data were obtained on the prescribing of hormone therapy, tibolone, and bisphosphonates by general practitioners in the UK between 1991 and 2005 to women aged 40 years and older in the UK General Practice Research Database. Overall and age-specific prescribing prevalence were calculated for each therapy type. Prescribing prevalence was also calculated for subcategories of hormone therapy and bisphosphonates. RESULTS: Prescribing of hormone therapy to women aged 40 years and older increased between 1991 and 1996 and remained fairly stable between 1997 and 2001. Hormone therapy prescribing has fallen by about 50% since 2002. Tibolone, a selective tissue estrogenic activity regulator, is prescribed much less commonly than hormone therapy but shows a similar pattern. Prescribing of bisphosphonates increased rapidly throughout the study period, particularly in women aged 70 years and older, with the pattern of prescribing reflecting to some extent, the availability of new weekly formulations. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in the prescribing of hormone therapy in the UK appear to closely reflect new epidemiological evidence and prescribing advice. It is likely that the substantial fall in hormone therapy and tibolone prescribing seen since 2002 is a direct consequence of the publication of Women's Health Initiative trial results and subsequent changes in advice given by the Committee on Safety of Medicines. The 1997 publication of results from the Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer and 2003 publication of the Million Women Study findings may also have impacted on trends, particularly within certain age groups. The substantial and continuing increase in prescribing prevalence of bisphosphonates reinforces the need for research into the long-term risks and benefits of these therapies.

Bell's palsy and parenteral inactivated influenza vaccine.

Concern about a possible increased risk of Bell's palsy after parenteral inactivated influenza vaccine was raised following the publication in 2004 of a Swiss study in which there was an increased risk following the nasal inactivated formulation of the vaccine. When data from passive reporting systems in the United States and the United Kingdom were examined there was some evidence of increased reporting following the parenteral vaccine. A large population based study using the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) was therefore performed to test the hypothesis that there was an increased risk of Bell's palsy in the three months following parenteral inactivated influenza vaccine. The risk was also assessed for the same period following pneumococcal vaccine and was stratified into three age groups (<45, 45-64 and 65+ years). Relative incidence (RI) estimates were calculated using the self-controlled case-series method and showed no evidence of an increased risk in the three months following parenteral inactivated influenza vaccine RI 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.78-1.08). There was also no evidence of an increased risk in any age group or following pneumococcal vaccine. A significant increase was seen on the day of vaccination (day 0) probably due to opportunistic recording of cases.

Comparison of hospital episodes with 'drug-induced' disorders and spontaneously reported adverse drug reactions.

AIMS: To compare Hospital Episode Statistics for 'drug-related' admissions with spontaneously reported adverse drug reactions (ADRs) using UK Yellow Card data for the period 1996-2000. METHODS: This was a descriptive study for which we matched the relevant datasets in respect of time, place, evidence of hospitalization and disease terminology. The principal outcome was the ratio of ADRs leading to hospitalization which had been reported spontaneously during the whole study period. RESULTS: Twenty types of ADR were included and between them there was a wide spread of overall ratios (range 0-130%). The general tendency was for under-reporting on Yellow Cards but for ADRs with a fatal outcome this appeared to be less (range 7-168%). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides some broad indications of the degree of under-reporting of ADRs that occurs despite a clinical diagnosis of a serious ADR being made and recorded.

Antidepressant treatment and the risk of fatal and non-fatal self harm in first episode depression: nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of non-fatal self harm and suicide in patients taking selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) with that of patients taking tricyclic antidepressants, as well as between different SSRIs and different tricyclic antidepressants. DESIGN: Nested case-control study. SETTING: Primary care in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 146,095 individuals with a first prescription of an antidepressant for depression. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Suicide and non-fatal self harm. RESULTS: 1968 cases of non-fatal self harm and 69 suicides occurred. The overall adjusted odds ratio of non-fatal self harm was 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.86 to 1.14) and that of suicide 0.57 (0.26 to 1.25) in people prescribed SSRIs compared with those prescribed tricyclic antidepressants. We found little evidence that associations differed over time since starting or stopping treatment. We found some evidence that risks of non-fatal self harm in people prescribed SSRIs compared with those prescribed tricyclic antidepressants differed by age group (interaction P = 0.02). The adjusted odds ratio of non-fatal self harm for people prescribed SSRIs compared with users of tricylic antidepressants for those aged 18 or younger was 1.59 (1.01 to 2.50), but no association was apparent in other age groups. No suicides occurred in those aged 18 or younger currently or recently prescribed tricyclic antidepressants or SSRIs. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that the risk of suicide or non-fatal self harm in adults prescribed SSRIs was greater than in those prescribed tricyclic antidepressants. We found some weak evidence of an increased risk of non-fatal self harm for current SSRI use among those aged 18 or younger. However, preferential prescribing of SSRIs to patients at higher risk of suicidal behaviour cannot be ruled out.

Genome scan meta-analysis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, part II: Schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia is a common disorder with high heritability and a 10-fold increase in risk to siblings of probands. Replication has been inconsistent for reports of significant genetic linkage. To assess evidence for linkage across studies, rank-based genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) was applied to data from 20 schizophrenia genome scans. Each marker for each scan was assigned to 1 of 120 30-cM bins, with the bins ranked by linkage scores (1 = most significant) and the ranks averaged across studies (R(avg)) and then weighted for sample size (N(sqrt)[affected casess]). A permutation test was used to compute the probability of observing, by chance, each bin's average rank (P(AvgRnk)) or of observing it for a bin with the same place (first, second, etc.) in the order of average ranks in each permutation (P(ord)). The GSMA produced significant genomewide evidence for linkage on chromosome 2q (PAvgRnk<.000417). Two aggregate criteria for linkage were also met (clusters of nominally significant P values that did not occur in 1,000 replicates of the entire data set with no linkage present): 12 consecutive bins with both P(AvgRnk) and P(ord)<.05, including regions of chromosomes 5q, 3p, 11q, 6p, 1q, 22q, 8p, 20q, and 14p, and 19 consecutive bins with P(ord)<.05, additionally including regions of chromosomes 16q, 18q, 10p, 15q, 6q, and 17q. There is greater consistency of linkage results across studies than has been previously recognized. The results suggest that some or all of these regions contain loci that increase susceptibility to schizophrenia in diverse populations.