Development and validation of prediction models for endometrial cancer in postmenopausal bleeding.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and assess the accuracy of risk prediction models to diagnose endometrial cancer in women having postmenopausal bleeding (PMB). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of 4383 women in a One-stop PMB clinic from a university teaching hospital in Hong Kong. Clinical risk factors, transvaginal ultrasonic measurement of endometrial thickness (ET) and endometrial histology were obtained from consecutive women between 2002 and 2013. Two models to predict risk of endometrial cancer were developed and assessed, one based on patient characteristics alone and a second incorporated ET with patient characteristics. Endometrial histology was used as the reference standard. The split-sample internal validation and bootstrapping technique were adopted. The optimal threshold for prediction of endometrial cancer by the final models was determined using a receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve and Youden Index. The diagnostic gain was compared to a reference strategy of measuring ET only by comparing the AUC using the Delong test. RESULTS: Out of 4383 women with PMB, 168 (3.8%) were diagnosed with endometrial cancer. ET alone had an area under curve (AUC) of 0.92 (95% confidence intervals [CIs] 0.89-0.94). In the patient characteristics only model, independent predictors of cancer were age at presentation, age at menopause, body mass index, nulliparity and recurrent vaginal bleeding. The AUC and Youdens Index of the patient characteristic only model were respectively 0.73 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) and 0.72 (Sensitivity=66.5%; Specificity=68.9%; +ve LR=2.14; -ve LR=0.49). ET, age at presentation, nulliparity and recurrent vaginal bleeding were independent predictors in the patient characteristics plus ET model. The AUC and Youdens Index of the patient characteristic plus ET model where respectively 0.92 (95% CI 0.88-0.96) and 0.71 (Sensitivity=82.7%; Specificity=88.3%; +ve LR=6.38; -ve LR=0.2). Comparison of AUC indicated that a history alone model was inferior to a model using ET alone (difference=0.19, 95% CI 0.15-0.24; p<0.0001) and History plus ET (difference=0.19, 95% CI 0.16-0.23, p<0.0001) and history plus ET was similar to that of using ET alone (difference=0.001 95% CI -0.015 to 0.0018, p=0.84). CONCLUSIONS: A risk model using only patient characteristics showed fair diagnostic accuracy. Addition of patient characteristics to ET did not improve the diagnostic accuracy as compared to ET alone in our cohort.

Transcervical intralesional vasopressin injection compared with placebo in hysteroscopic myomectomy: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of transcervical intralesional vasopressin injection to submucous myoma in hysteroscopic myomectomy from 2011 to 2014. METHODS: This was a prospective, randomized, double-blind study in a single center. Forty premenopausal women with symptomatic submucous myoma requiring hysteroscopic myomectomy were randomized to transcervical intralesional vasopressin injection or placebo in a 4:4 ratio. The primary outcome was operative time. Secondary outcomes including fluid volumes, blood loss, and visual clarity were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: The median duration for myomectomy was 19.9 minutes (range 3.1-54.2 minutes) in the vasopressin group compared with 29.0 minutes (range 8.0-60.9 minutes) in the placebo group, a nonsignificant difference (P=.14). There were significant reductions in the median volume of fluid used (4,200 mL [range 1,300-21,000 mL] compared with 9,800 mL (range 1,500-23,000 mL; P=.004) and fluid intravasation (0 mL [range 0-3,100] compared with 300 mL [range -150-3,150 mL; P=.029) in the vasopressin group. The median intraoperative blood loss was reduced (5 mL [range 1-50 mL] compared with 20 mL [range 1-150 mL; P=.002). The operative surgeon rated that 95% of the vasopressin group had "minimal" bleeding compared with 36.8% in the placebo group. The surgical field (visual analog scale [VAS] 9 [range 2-10] compared with 6 [range 2-10; P<.001]; 0=worst visual clarity, 10=best visual clarity) and the effluent fluid (VAS 1 [range 0-7] compared with 4 [range 0-8; P<.001]; 0=clear, 10=unclear) were statistically significantly clearer in the vasopressin group. CONCLUSION: Transcervical intralesional vasopressin injection in hysteroscopic myomectomy did not reduce operative time but did reduce volume of inflow fluid, fluid intravasation, intraoperative blood loss, and improving visual clarity. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Centre for Clinical Research and Biostatistics, http://www.cct.cuhk.edu.hk/Registry/publictriallist.aspx, CUHK_CCT00291.