Explicit characterization of human population connectivity reveals long run persistence of interregional dengue shocks.

Dengue is hyper-endemic in Singapore and Malaysia, and daily movement rates between the two countries are consistently high, allowing inference on the role of local transmission and imported dengue cases. This paper describes a custom built sparse space-time autoregressive (SSTAR) model to infer and forecast contemporaneous and future dengue transmission patterns in Singapore and 16 administrative regions within Malaysia, taking into account connectivity and geographical adjacency between regions as well as climatic factors. A modification to forecast impulse responses is developed for the case of the SSTAR and is used to simulate changes in dengue transmission in neighbouring regions following a disturbance. The results indicate that there are long-term responses of the neighbouring regions to shocks in a region. By computation of variable inclusion probabilities, we found that each region's own past counts were important to describe contemporaneous case counts. In 15 out of 16 regions, other regions case counts were important to describe contemporaneous case counts even after controlling for past local dengue transmissions and exogenous factors. Leave-one-region-out analysis using SSTAR showed that dengue transmission counts could be reconstructed for 13 of 16 regions' counts using external dengue transmissions compared to a climate only approach. Lastly, one to four week ahead forecasts from the SSTAR were more accurate than baseline univariate autoregressions.

Income disparity and mortality among patients with alcohol use disorder in South Korea.

Problems related to alcohol consumption, particularly alcohol disorders, occur frequently in South Korea and are gradually increasing due to the drinking culture and social atmosphere. We analyzed the relationship between mortality and income among patients with alcohol disorders. We used data from the National Sampling Claim Data 2003-2013, which included medical claims filed for 10,593 patients newly diagnosed with alcohol disorders. We performed survival analyses using a Cox proportional hazards model. 12.79% died during the study period. Patients with lower incomes were more positively associated with the risk of mortality than those with higher incomes (0-30 percentile: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.432, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.155-1.777; 31-60 percentile: HR = 1.318, 95% CI = 1.065-1.633; 61-90 percentile: HR = 1.352, 95% CI = 1.097-1.665; 91-100 percentile: ref). Such associations were significant in males, patients with mild conditions, or those who lived in metropolitan areas. In conclusion, we found that income disparity was related to mortality among patients diagnosed with disorders due to alcohol use. Thus, healthcare professionals need to provide active intervention in the early phase of alcohol disorders, and consider policy that would improve healthcare accessibility for low-income populations in order to reduce income disparity.