Less than Expected? How Media Cover Demonstration Turnout.

Demonstration turnout is a crucial political resource for social movements. In this article, we investigate how mass media cover demonstration size. We develop a typology of turnout coverage and scrutinize the factors that drive turnout coverage. In addition, we test whether media coverage underestimates, reflects, or exaggerates "guesstimates" by organizers and police forces. Together, these analyses shed light on whether turnout coverage fits a logic of normalization or marginalization. We rely on a unique dataset of 428 demonstrations organized in Brussels (2003-2010). For these demonstrations, we have information on the turnout as reported in national television news, as counted by the police, and as expected by the organizers. We find that media present turnout most often as a fact, rarely as contentious (10 percent). Although few demonstrations pass the media gates, our study yields little to no evidence for a logic of turnout marginalization. Media coverage does not systematically underestimate demonstration size, nor does it blindly follow police counts. Rather, turnout coverage attests of a logic of normalization, following standard news-making practices. The more important the demonstration (size, lead item) and the larger the gap between police and organizer guesstimates, the more attention is paid to turnout in the news. Discussion centers on the generalizability and normative interpretation of the results.

"Crashing the gates" - selection criteria for television news reporting of traffic crashes.

This study investigates which crash characteristics influence the probability that the crash is reported in the television news. To this purpose, all news items from the period 2006-2012 about traffic crashes from the prime time news of two Belgian television channels are linked to the official injury crash database. Logistic regression models are built for the database of all injury crashes and for the subset of fatal crashes to identify crash characteristics that correlate with a lower or higher probability of being reported in the news. A number of significant biases in terms of crash severity, time, place, types of involved road users and victims' personal characteristics are found in the media reporting of crashes. More severe crashes are reported in the media more easily than less severe crashes. Significant fluctuations in media reporting probability through time are found in terms of the year and month in which the crash took place. Crashes during week days are generally less reported in the news. The geographical area (province) in which the crash takes place also has a significant impact on the probability of being reported in the news. Crashes on motorways are significantly more represented in the news. Regarding the age of the involved victims, a clear trend of higher media reporting rates of crashes involving young victims or young fatalities is observed. Crashes involving female fatalities are also more frequently reported in the news. Furthermore, crashes involving a bus have a significantly higher probability of being reported in the news, while crashes involving a motorcycle have a significantly lower probability. Some models also indicate a lower reporting rate of crashes involving a moped, and a higher reporting rate of crashes involving heavy goods vehicles. These biases in media reporting can create skewed perceptions in the general public about the prevalence of traffic crashes and eventually may influence people's behaviour.

The missing link in the diffusion of protest: asking others.

Mobilization for protest is a process of diffusion in interpersonal networks. Extant work has found that being asked by people one knows is a key determinant of participation, but the flip side--asking others--has been neglected. The authors examine which prospective participants are most likely to ask others to participate and whom they ask. Drawing on a new and unusual data set including evidence on more than 7,000 participants in 48 demonstrations across Europe, the authors find that activists who are committed to the demonstration's cause (willing to recruit others) and who are part of participation-friendly networks (able to recruit others) are the most active recruiters. Asking others is dependent on being asked: participants tend to recruit people similar to those who have recruited them and, most importantly, participants who are recruited via strong ties are less active recruiters themselves.