Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills.

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.

Ocean in peril: reforming the management of global ocean living resources in areas beyond national jurisdiction.

This article presents the outcome of research aimed at assisting governments in meeting their commitments and legal obligations for sustainable fisheries, based on increasing evidence that global fisheries are in crisis. The article assesses the effectiveness of the existing legal and institutional framework for high seas living resources. It focuses on: (1) the role of regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs); (2) tools for compliance and enforcement to stem illegal fishing; and (3) mechanisms for habitat protection. The article further highlights a variety of options for addressing key weaknesses and gaps in current ocean governance, including United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions, reforms at the regional level, as well as a possible new legal instrument, with a view to informing international discussions on ways to ensure the sustainable use of high seas resources without compromising the health of the marine environment.