How to use machine learning and fuzzy cognitive maps to test hypothetical scenarios in health behavior change interventions: a case study on fruit intake.

BACKGROUND: Intervention planners use logic models to design evidence-based health behavior interventions. Logic models that capture the complexity of health behavior necessitate additional computational techniques to inform decisions with respect to the design of interventions. OBJECTIVE: Using empirical data from a real intervention, the present paper demonstrates how machine learning can be used together with fuzzy cognitive maps to assist in designing health behavior change interventions. METHODS: A modified Real Coded Genetic algorithm was applied on longitudinal data from a real intervention study. The dataset contained information about 15 determinants of fruit intake among 257 adults in the Netherlands. Fuzzy cognitive maps were used to analyze the effect of two hypothetical intervention scenarios designed by domain experts. RESULTS: Simulations showed that the specified hypothetical interventions would have small impact on fruit intake. The results are consistent with the empirical evidence used in this paper. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning together with fuzzy cognitive maps can assist in building health behavior interventions with complex logic models. The testing of hypothetical scenarios may help interventionists finetune the intervention components thus increasing their potential effectiveness.

FCMpy: a python module for constructing and analyzing fuzzy cognitive maps.

FCMpy is an open-source Python module for building and analyzing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs). The module provides tools for end-to-end projects involving FCMs. It is able to derive fuzzy causal weights from qualitative data or simulating the system behavior. Additionally, it includes machine learning algorithms (e.g., Nonlinear Hebbian Learning, Active Hebbian Learning, Genetic Algorithms, and Deterministic Learning) to adjust the FCM causal weight matrix and to solve classification problems. Finally, users can easily implement scenario analysis by simulating hypothetical interventions (i.e., analyzing what-if scenarios). FCMpy is the first open-source module that contains all the functionalities necessary for FCM oriented projects. This work aims to enable researchers from different areas, such as psychology, cognitive science, or engineering, to easily and efficiently develop and test their FCM models without the need for extensive programming knowledge.