Towards a bioeconomic vision for New Zealand - Unlocking barriers to enable new pathways and trajectories.

There has been significant national interest and movement towards bioeconomic policy over the past decade. Through an examination of the current bioeconomic pathways in New Zealand, this paper outlines key barriers that transition pathways will need to overcome and factors needing development within the country's bioeconomic environment. New Zealand's strength in primary production, coupled with a market-led economy and recent green growth with low carbon policies, provide an excellent platform for bioeconomic development. However, the strength in established biological industries and lack of clearly defined vision or cohesive support for bioeconomic development provide sufficient inertia to realising the full potential. For a bioeconomy in New Zealand to flourish, a primary sector model that is cohesive and more integrated is needed to develop new niche industries and attract finance, while providing an overarching governance system to the primary industries.

Making real options analysis more accessible for climate change adaptation. An application to afforestation as a flood management measure in the Scottish Borders.

Climate change uncertainty makes decisions for adaptation investments challenging, in particular when long time horizons and large irreversible upfront costs are involved. Often the costs will be immediate and clear, but the benefits may be uncertain and only occur in the distant future. Robust decision-making methods such as real options analysis (ROA) handle uncertainty better and are therefore useful to guide decision-making for climate change adaptation. ROA allows for learning about climate change by developing flexible strategies that can be adjusted over time. Practical examples of ROA to climate change adaptation are still relatively limited and tend to be complex. We propose an application that makes ROA more accessible to policy-makers by using the user-friendly and freely available UK climate data of the UKCP09 weather generator, which provides projections of future rainfall, deriving transition probabilities for the ROA in a straightforward way and demonstrating how the analysis can be implemented in spreadsheet format using backward induction. The application is to afforestation as a natural flood management measure (NFM) in a rural catchment in Scotland. The applicability of ROA to broadleaf afforestation as a NFM has not been previously investigated. Different ROA strategies are presented based on varying the damage cost from flooding, fixed cost and the discount rate. The results illustrate how learning can lower the overall investment cost of climate change adaptation but also that the cost structure of afforestation does not lend itself very well to ROA.

Adaptive governance good practice: Show me the evidence!

Adaptive governance has emerged in the last decade as an intriguing avenue of theory and practice for the holistic management of complex environmental problems. Research on adaptive governance has flourished since the field's inception, probing the process and mechanisms underpinning the new approach while offering various justifications and prescriptions for empirical use. Nevertheless, recent reviews of adaptive governance reveal some important conceptual and practical gaps in the field, particularly concerning challenges in its application to real-world cases. In this paper, we respond directly to the empirical challenge of adaptive governance, specifically asking: which methods contribute to the implementation of successful adaptive governance process and outcomes in practice and across cases and contexts? We adopt a systematic literature review methodology which considers the current body of empirical literature on adaptive governance of social-ecological systems in order to assess and analyse the methods affecting successful adaptive governance practice across the range of existing cases. We find that methods contributing to adaptive governance in practice resemble the design recommendations outlined in previous adaptive governance scholarship, including meaningful collaboration across actors and scales; effective coordination between stakeholders and levels; building social capital; community empowerment and engagement; capacity development; linking knowledge and decision-making through data collection and monitoring; promoting leadership capacity; and exploiting or creating governance opportunities. However, we critically contextualise these methods by analysing and summarising their patterns-in-use, drawing examples from the cases to explore the specific ways they were successfully or unsuccessfully applied to governance issues on-the-ground. Our results indicate some important underlying shared patterns, trajectories, and lessons learned for evidence-based adaptive governance good practice within and across diverse sectors, issues, and contexts.