Construction and validation a nomogram to predict overall survival for colorectal signet ring cell carcinoma.

To construct and validate a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of colorectal signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC). The potentially eligible cases were obtained against the SEER database from 2004 to 2015. Log-rank test and Cox analysis were conducted to identify the independent prognostic factors for predicting OS. The identified prognostic factors were later integrated for the construction of an OS prediction nomogram. Altogether 2904 eligible cases were identified, and the median survival time was 18 (range: 0-155) months. As suggested by multivariate analysis, age, primary site, grade, tumor size, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, lymph node dissection and chemotherapy were identified as the independent factors for predicting OS. Afterwards, the above variables were incorporated into the nomogram. The C-index indicated better discriminatory ability of the nomogram than AJCC 8th TNM staging and SEER summary stage systems (both P < 0.001). Calibration plots further showed good consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. The time independent area under the curves (tAUCs) for 3-year and 5-year OS in nomogram were larger than AJCC and SEER summary stage system. The constructed nomogram could potentially predict the survival of colorectal SRCC individuals.

Nomogram predicting overall survival of rectal squamous cell carcinomas patients based on the SEER database: A population-based STROBE cohort study.

We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of clinical and pathologic factors in rectal squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) and to construct a nomogram for their outcome prediction.The study cohort was selected from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program between January 2004 and December 2013. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression model to evaluate the prognostic value of involved variables. All prognostic factors were combined to construct a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS), followed by discrimination as well as calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for assessing the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.We identified 806 patients with a median follow-up time of 35 months. Multivariate analyses revealed that marital status (P < .001), age (P < .001), T stage (P = .008), M stage (P < .001), surgery (P = .004), chemotherapy (P = .003) and radiotherapy (P = .016) were independent prognostic factors of OS. Finally, the 7 variables were combined to construct a 3-year and 5-year OS nomogram. The concordance indexes (C-indexes) of OS were 0.756 (95% CI, 0.726-0.786) for the internal validation and 0.729 (95% CI, 0.678-0.780) for the external validation. Additionally, there was superior discrimination power of the nomogram over the SEER stage or the 8th edition AJCC TNM staging classification (P < .001). Calibration plots further showed good consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. The area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves for 3-year OS was 0.811 (95% CI: 0.769-0.853) in the training cohort and 0.748 (95% CI: 0.681-0.815) in the validation cohort. The AUC for 5-year OS was 0.770 (95% CI: 0.721-0.819) in the training cohort and 0.797 (95% CI: 0.731-0.863) in the validation cohort. Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis further validates the predictive potential of the nomogram.Marital status, age, T stage, M stage, surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy were significantly associated with OS of patients with rectal SCC. This predictive model has the potential to provide an individualized risk estimate of survival in patients with rectal SCC.

Construction and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with inflammatory breast cancer.

In the present study, we examined the factors affecting survival of women with inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) and constructed and validated a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in these patients. The cohort was selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were constructed. A nomogram was developed based on significant prognostic indicators of OS. The discriminatory and predictive capacities of the nomogram were assessed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. A total of 1651 eligible patients were identified, with a median survival time of 31 months (range 0-131 months), and the 3- and 5-year OS rates were 52.8% and 39.5%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that race (P < .001), marital status (P = .011), N stage (P = .002), M stage (P < .001), hormone receptor (P < .001), human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) (P = .001), surgery (P < .001), chemotherapy (P < .001), and radiotherapy (P = .010) were independent prognostic indicators of IBC. These nine variables were incorporated to construct a nomogram. The C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.738 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.717, 0.759) and 0.741 (95% CI: 0.717, 0.765) for the internal and external validations, respectively. The nomogram had a better discriminatory capacity for predicting OS than did the SEER summary stage (P < .001) or the American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor-node metastasis staging systems (8th edition; P < .001). The calibration plot revealed satisfactory agreement between the findings and predicted outcomes in both the internal and external validations. The nomogram-based 3- and 5-year OS predictions for patients with IBC exhibited superior accuracy over the existing models.

Circulating tumor cell counts/change for outcome prediction in patients with extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer.

AIMS: As data on the use of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) to predict patient outcomes in extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) remain inconclusive, we investigated the clinical value of CTC determination in an open-label, multicenter study of 91 patients with newly diagnosed ES-SCLC. MATERIALS & METHODS: Blood CTC counts were determined using the CellSearch® system at baseline, after the second cycle of chemotherapy, and on disease progression. RESULTS & CONCLUSION: Following the second cycle of treatment, CTC numbers and the change in CTCs were strong, significant and independent indicators for both progression-free survival and overall survival in ES-SCLC. The CTC change was associated with both refractory disease (response to initial therapy ≤3 months) and sensitive disease (response to initial therapy >3 months).