Global validation of data-assimilative electron ring current nowcast for space weather applications.

The hazardous plasma environment surrounding Earth poses risks to satellites due to internal charging and surface charging effects. Accurate predictions of these risks are crucial for minimizing damage and preparing for system failures of satellites. To forecast the plasma environment, it is essential to know the current state of the system, as the accuracy of the forecast depends on the accuracy of the initial condition of the forecast. In this study, we use data assimilation techniques to combine observational data and model predictions, and present the first global validation of a data-assimilative electron ring current nowcast during a geomagnetic storm. By assimilating measurements from one satellite and validating the results against another satellite in a different magnetic local time sector, we assess the global response and effectiveness of the data assimilation technique for space weather applications. Using this method, we found that the simulation accuracy can be drastically improved at times when observations are available while eliminating almost all of the bias previously present in the model. These findings contribute to the construction of improved operational models in estimating surface charging risks and providing realistic 'source' populations for radiation belt simulations.

A missing dusk-side loss process in the terrestrial electron ring current.

The Earth's magnetic field traps charged particles which are transported longitudinally around Earth, generating a near-circular current, known as the ring current. While the ring current has been measured on the ground and space for many decades, the enhancement of the ring current during geomagnetic storms is still not well understood, due to many processes contributing to its dynamics on different time scales. Here, we show that existing ring current models systematically overestimate electron flux observations of 10-50 keV on the nightside during storm onset. By analyzing electron drift trajectories, we show that this systematic overestimation of flux can be explained through a missing loss process which operates in the pre-midnight sector. Quantifying this loss reveals that the theoretical upper limit of loss has to be reached over a broad region of space in order to reproduce the observations. This missing loss may be attributed to inaccuracies in the parameterization of the loss due to chorus wave interactions, combined with the scattering by electrostatic electron cyclotron harmonic waves which is currently not included in ring current models.