Risk assessment of imported malaria in China: a machine learning perspective.

BACKGROUND: Following China's official designation as malaria-free country by WHO, the imported malaria has emerged as a significant determinant impacting the malaria reestablishment within China. The objective of this study is to explore the application prospects of machine learning algorithms in imported malaria risk assessment of China. METHODS: The data of imported malaria cases in China from 2011 to 2019 was provided by China CDC; historical epidemic data of malaria endemic country was obtained from World Malaria Report, and the other data used in this study are open access data. All the data processing and model construction based on R, and map visualization used ArcGIS software. RESULTS: A total of 27,088 malaria cases imported into China from 85 countries between 2011 and 2019. After data preprocessing and classification, clean dataset has 765 rows (85 * 9) and 11 cols. Six machine learning models was constructed based on the training set, and Random Forest model demonstrated the best performance in model evaluation. According to RF, the highest feature importance were the number of malaria deaths and Indigenous malaria cases. The RF model demonstrated high accuracy in forecasting risk for the year 2019, achieving commendable accuracy rate of 95.3%. This result aligns well with the observed outcomes, indicating the model's reliability in predicting risk levels. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning algorithms have reliable application prospects in risk assessment of imported malaria in China. This study provides a new methodological reference for the risk assessment and control strategies adjusting of imported malaria in China.

Competency of malaria laboratory diagnosis at national and provincial levels at the beginning of malaria post-elimination phase, China.

BACKGROUND: Qualified malaria diagnosis competency has contributed to the great achievement of malaria elimination in China. After eliminating malaria, it is still critical to the prevention of re-establishment of malaria transmission in China. This study was aimed to assess the malaria detection competency at national and provincial levels in China at the beginning of malaria post-elimination phase. METHODS: In the present study, different competency assessment activities on the laboratory malaria diagnosis were carried out for national and provincial malaria diagnostic laboratories based on the WHO scoring schedules, including malaria microscopy or nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT), at the beginning of malaria post-elimination phase (2021-2022) in China. RESULTS: A total of 60 slides for malaria microscopy and 10 specimen for NAAT were included into the WHO External Quality Assessments of malaria parasite qualitative detection and species identification, and the scoring rate was 96.6% (microscopy: 171/177) and 85.0% (NAAT: 17/20), respectively. Moreover, 124 samples were included into the national NAAT quality assessment, and an accuracy of 87.9% (109/124) was found without significance among reference laboratories and non-reference laboratories. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that there is still a need for sustained strengthening of malaria detection competency, particularly in the areas of parasite counting and detection of low-density parasitemia, to ensure prompt detection of the sources of infection and accurate identification of Plasmodium species, and contribute to case management and focus disposal, thereby effectively preventing the malaria re-establishment.

Epidemiological characteristics of Plasmodium malariae malaria in China: a malaria that should not be neglected post elimination.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium malariae was always neglected compared with P. falciparum and P. vivax. In the present study, we aimed to describe the epidemiology of reported cases infected with P. malariae in the past decade to raise awareness of the potential threat of this malaria parasite in China. METHODS: Individual data of malaria cases infected with P. malariae reported in China in the past decade were collected via the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and Parasitic Diseases Information Reporting Management System, to explore their epidemiological characteristics. Pearson Chi-square tests or Fisher's Exact Test was used in the statistical analysis. RESULTS: From 2013 to 2022, a total of 581 P. malariae cases were reported in China, and mainly concentrated in 20-59 years old group (P < 0.001), and there was no significant trend in the number of cases reported per month. Moreover, four kinds of P. malariae cases were classified, including 567 imported cases from 41 countries in 8 regions and distributed in 27 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China, six indigenous cases in a small outbreak in Hainan, seven recurrent cases in Guangdong and Shanghai, and one induced case in Shanghai, respectively. In addition, only 379 cases (65.2%) were diagnosed as malaria on the first visit (P < 0.001), and 413 cases (71.1%) were further confirmed as P. malariae cases (P = 0.002). Meanwhile, most cases sought healthcare first in the health facilities at the county and prefectural levels, but only 76.7% (161/210) and 73.7% (146/198) cases were diagnosed as malaria, and the accuracy of confirmed diagnosis as malaria cases infected with P. malariae was only 77.2% (156/202) and 69.9% (167/239) in these health facilities respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Even though malaria cases infected with P. malariae didn't account for a high proportion of reported malaria cases nationwide, the threat posed by widely distributed imported cases, a small number of indigenous cases, recurrent cases and induced case cannot be ignored in China. Therefore, it is necessary to raise awareness and improve the surveillance and response to the non-falciparum species such as P. malariae, and prevent the reestablishment of malaria transmission after elimination.

A review of malaria molecular markers for drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in China.

China has now achieved the elimination of malaria, but it still faces severe challenges in the post-elimination stage. China continues to be plagued by imported malaria cases, and preventing re-transmission of imported malaria is critical. The effectiveness of antimalarial drugs for malaria control largely depends on the study of drug resistance markers in vitro. Monitoring molecular markers of parasite-associated drug resistance can help predict and manage drug resistance. There is currently a lack of systematic reviews of molecular markers for indigenous and imported malaria in China. Therefore, this review summarizes the published articles related to molecular marker polymorphism of indigenous and imported malaria cases in China in the past two decades, to study the mutation frequency and distribution of crt, mdr1, dhps, dhfr and K13 gene resistance-related loci. This can provide a whole picture of molecular markers and the resistance mutations of imported cases in China, which has certain significance for drug resistance surveillance planning, safe and effective treatment, and preventing the recurrence of local transmission by imported malaria in China in the future.

1-3-7 surveillance and response approach in malaria elimination: China's practice and global adaptions.

There has been a significant reduction in malaria morbidity and mortality worldwide from 2000 to 2019. However, the incidence and mortality increased again in 2020 due to the disruption to services during the COVID-19 pandemic. Surveillance to reduce the burden of malaria, eliminate the disease and prevent its retransmission is, therefore, crucial. The 1-3-7 approach proposed by China has played an important role in eliminating malaria, which has been internationally popularized and adopted in some countries to help eliminate malaria. This review summarizes the experience and lessons of 1-3-7 approach in China and its application in other malaria-endemic countries, so as to provide references for its role in eliminating malaria and preventing retransmission. This approach needs to be tailored and adapted according to the region condition, considering the completion, timeliness and limitation of case-based reactive surveillance and response. It is very important to popularize malaria knowledge, train staff, improve the capacity of health centres and monitor high-risk groups to improve the performance in eliminating settings. After all, remaining vigilance in detecting malaria cases and optimizing surveillance and response systems are critical to achieving and sustaining malaria elimination.

Imported malaria from land bordering countries in China: A challenge in preventing the reestablishment of malaria transmission.

OBJECTIVE: No indigenous malaria cases have been reported since 2017 in China, but a large number of imported cases are still reported every year, including those from the land bordering countries. To characterize their epidemiological profiles will provide evidence for the development of appropriate strategies to effectively address the challenges of border malaria in the post-elimination phase. METHODS: Individual-level data of imported malaria cases from the land bordering countries were collected from 2017 to 2021 in China via the web-based surveillance systems, and analyzed by SPSS, ArcGIS and WPS software, to explore their epidemiological profiles. RESULTS: A total of 1170 malaria cases imported into China from six of the fourteen land bordering countries were reported between 2017 and 2021 with a decline trend. Overall, cases were widely distributed in 31-97 counties from 11 to 21 provinces but mainly in Yunnan. Moreover, these imported cases were mainly infected with P. vivax (94.8%), and a total of 68 recurrent cases were reported in 6-14 counties from 4 to 8 provinces. In addition, nearly 57.1% of the total reported cases could seek healthcare within 2 days of getting sick, and 71.3% of the reported cases could be confirmed as malaria on the day they sought medical care. CONCLUSIONS: China still needs to attach great importance to the risk and challenge of the imported malaria from bordering countries particularly from Myanmar in preventing reestablishment of malaria transmission in the post-elimination phase. It is necessary not only to strengthen collaboration and cooperation with the bordering countries, but also coordinate multiple departments at home to improve malaria surveillance and response system and prevent the reestablishment of malaria transmission in China.

Insights into the elimination of vivax malaria in China.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is caused by multiple parasitic species of the genus Plasmodium. Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread and poses challenges in elimination due to its unique biological and epidemiological characteristics. The aim of study was to highlight the practices and experience targeting vivax malaria control and elimination in China. MAIN BODY: P. vivax malaria was historically endemic in more than 70% of counties in China, with reported vivax malaria cases as high as 26 million a year. After around 70 years of effort, China was certified as malaria-free in June of 2021. The key insights into China's vivax malaria control and elimination were offered, including radical cure strategies, comprehensive but adaptive strategies targeting species of Plasmodium and Anopheles, mass drug administration, and case-/focus-centred surveillance and response systems. CONCLUSION: The complete global eradication of P. vivax and eventually malaria will be more difficult, and China's practices and experience could be a valuable reference in this campaign.

Serological surveillance on potential Plasmodium vivax exposure risk in a post-elimination setting.

China was declared malaria free in June of 2021. In the post-elimination setting, vigilant surveillance is essential to sustain malaria free status. Serological surveillance has been recognized as an efficient tool for assessing the immunity levels and exposure risk in a population. In this study, a cross-sectional serological survey was conducted in Yingjiang County, China, in August-September, 2021. The study sites were villages along the borders with Myanmar, which have no local transmission since the last indigenous case registered in 2016. A total of 923 participants from six villages were enrolled. The majority was aged > 36 years (56.12%) and 12.46% (115/923) participants had experienced malaria infection at least once. A magnetic- bead-based assay was used to test antibodies against Plasmodium vivax antigen PvMSP-119 to evaluate the prevalence of antibody positive subjects. A reversible catalytic model was used to assess the risk of exposure. The prevalence of anti-PvMSP-119 IgG was 12.84% [95% confidence interval (CI): 9.22%-16.47%], 13.93% (95% CI: 10.11%-17.74%), and 3.57% (95% CI: 1.40%-5.75%) in three different line-of-defense areas, which differed significantly (P < 0.0001). The prevalence of anti-PvMSP-119 IgG increased with age and no statistically significant difference was detected between the sexes. The reversible catalytic model indicated that the seropositive conversion rate and seronegative reversion rate were 0.0042, 0.0034, 0.0032 and 0.0024, 0.0004, 0.0065 in the first-, second-line-of-defense area and total areas, respectively, and the fitted value did not differ significantly from the observed value (P > 0.1). Although this study found the prevalence of antibody-positive subjects and the seroconversion rate in this post-elimination setting were lower than that in transmission setting, the population still had an exposure risk. Serological surveillance should be considered in post-elimination settings to provide valuable information with which to evaluate the risk of malaria re-establishment.

Evolution of anti-malaria policies and measures in P.R. China for achieving and sustaining malaria-free.

Malaria is a major public health threat worldwide, and it was also widely prevalent in the history in China, seriously endangering people's health and affecting socioeconomic development. China was certified malaria elimination in 2021 with unremitting efforts since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. This great achievement has been another milestone in the fight against major infectious diseases following the elimination of smallpox, poliomyelitis, leprosy, filariasis, neonatal tetanus and blinding trachoma in China. This paper briefly introduces the malaria burden dynamics and the corresponding malaria transmission risk stratificantions, as well as systematically reviews the evolution of anti-malaria policies and measures from severe epidemic to elimination in China. Meanwhile, five key lessons in malaria control and elimination in China are also briefly summarized. All of the above provide evidences for promoting global malaria eradication and preventing reestablishment of malaria transmission, finally benefit all individuals still suffering from the scourge of malaria.

Prediction of the Risk Distributions for Anopheles sinensis, a Vector for Malaria in Shanghai, China.

Malaria is a parasitic disease caused by Plasmodium, and Anopheles sinensis is a vector of malaria. Although malaria is no longer indigenous to China, a high risk remains for local transmission of imported malaria. This study aimed to identify the risk distribution of vector An. sinensis and malaria transmission. Using data collected from routine monitoring in Shanghai from 2010 to 2020, online databases for An. sinensis and malaria, and environmental variables including climate, geography, vegetation, and hosts, we constructed 10 algorithms and developed ensemble models. The ensemble models combining multiple algorithms (An. sinensis: area under the curve [AUC] = 0.981, kappa = 0.920; malaria: AUC = 0.959, kappa = 0.800), with the best out-of-sample performance, were used to identify important environmental predictors for the risk distributions of An. sinensis and malaria transmission. For An. sinensis, the most important predictor in the ensemble model was moisture index, which reflected degree of wetness; the risk of An. sinensis decreased with higher degrees of wetness. For malaria transmission, the most important predictor in the ensemble model was the normalized differential vegetation index, which reflected vegetation cover; the risk of malaria transmission decreased with more vegetation cover. Risk levels for An. sinensis and malaria transmission for each district of Shanghai were presented; however, there was a mismatch between the risk classification maps of An. sinensis and malaria transmission. Facing the challenge of malaria transmission in Shanghai, in addition to precise An. sinensis monitoring in risk areas of malaria transmission, malaria surveillance should occur even in low-risk areas for An. sinensis.

Achievements of the national malaria control and elimination program in the People's Republic of China: the Atlas of Malaria Transmission in China.

In 2017, China achieved the target of zero indigenous malaria case for the first time, and has been certified as malaria free by World Health Organization in 2021. To further summarize the historical achievements and technical experiences of the elimination program, a project on the Roadmap Analysis and Verification for Malaria Elimination in China was carried out. Results of the project were compiled and published as the Atlas of Malaria Transmission in China (The Atlas). The Atlas using modern digital information technologies, has been supported by various data from 24 malaria endemic provinces of China since 1950, to assess the changes in malaria epidemic patterns from 1950 to 2019 at national and provincial levels. The Atlas is designed as two volumes, including a total of 1850 thematic maps and more than 130 charts, consisting of introductory maps, thematic maps of malaria epidemic and control at national and provincial levels. It objectively and directly shows the epidemic history, evolution process, and great achievements of the national malaria control and elimination program in China. The Atlas has important reference value for summing up historical experience in the national malaria elimination program of China, and malaria control and elimination in other endemic countries in the world.

Risks of and response to cluster outbreak of imported malaria during malaria post-elimination era in China / 中国热带医学

@#Abstract: Objective　To analyze the recent cluster outbreaks of imported malaria and explore the risks, challenges and countermeasures for dealing with such events during malaria post-elimination era of malaria, and to provide reference for effectively addressing the risks and consolidating the achievements of malaria elimination. Methods　The individual malaria case data from "The Information System for Infectious Disease Surveillance" and "The Information System For Parasitic Diseases Prevention And Control" were collected，and the diagnosis classification, infection source, time and space distribution of cases were analyzed. Results　From January 1 to August 11, 2022, a total of 429 malaria cases were reported nationwide, an 18.9% decrease compared to the same period last year (529 cases), all of which were imported cases. The overall weekly trend of the outbreak remained stable, but since Week 31 (July 25-31), there has been a significant increase in the number of cases, with a peak on August 5. From July 25 to August 11, 2022, a total of 162 malaria cases were reported nationwide, up 315.4% from 39 cases in the same period last year, accounting for 37.8% of the total cases up to August 11, 2022. The main source of imported infections was Guinea (95 cases, 58.6%), with most cases reported in Longgang District, Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province (30 cases), Shilin County, Kunming City, Yunnan Province (21 cases), Chaoyang District, Beijing (11 cases), and Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province (7 cases). Conclusions　Due to the concentration of returnees to China, several entry port cities simultaneously experienced cluster outbreaks of imported malaria, which brought immense pressure and challenges to local medical and health institutions. Health facilities at all levels need to maintain high vigilance and sensitivity, be well prepared, and avoid death and secondary transmission caused by imported cases.

Malaria Elimination in China and Sustainability Concerns in the Post-elimination Stage.

The World Health Organization (WHO) certified China as officially malaria-free on June 30, 2021. Looking back at the public health history in China, malaria elimination has been a product of complex social engineering. Here, we summarized our experience and lessons, and found that malaria control and elimination in China is mainly attributed to governmental leadership, consistent efforts, technological innovations, and adaptive approaches. We also raised that vigilance should focus on imported cases through strengthening surveillance and response systems in order to prevent any re-establishment of transmission after elimination. China should continue to maintain its laboratory, clinical and field epidemiology capabilities. Continuous policy and financial support, multi-sectoral cooperation, and innovative strategies and approaches will remain essential. By integrating these, a malaria-free status can become sustainable.

Malaria Microscopy Competency in the Subnational Verification, China: Implications for Malaria Elimination and the Prevention of Malaria Reestablishment.

Introduction: Qualified microscopy competency is a key indicator for certification of malaria elimination. To better prepare the country certification and identify the priorities that need improvement to prevent malaria reestablishment, microscopy competency at different levels were assessed in subnational verification of malaria elimination in China. Methodology. Microscopist representatives from centers for disease control and prevention (CDC)/institutes of parasitic diseases (IPD) and medical institutes for malaria diagnosis at the provincial and county levels in the subnational verification were analyzed. Specifically, five provincial microscopist representatives and ten county-level representatives were assessed in each of previously endemic provinces on qualitative identification (Plasmodium positive or negative) and Plasmodium species identification using standard slides from the National Malaria Diagnosis Reference Laboratory. Results: A total of 100 provincial-level representatives (60 from 42 CDCs/IPDs and 40 from 34 medical institutes) and 200 county-level representatives (61 from 41 CDCs and 139 from 118 medical institutes) were included. The qualitative accuracy was higher than 90% each (P = 0.137), but slides with low parasite density were easy to be misdiagnosed as negative. Furthermore, the accuracy of species identification was 80.0% and 83.6% in medical institutes and centers for disease control and prevention (CDCs) at the provincial level (P = 0.407) with relatively high misdiagnosis of P. vivax as P. ovale in the latter (16.2%) and 82.0% and 85.0% in medical institutes and CDCs at the county level (P = 0.330) for the identification of P. falciparum and non-P. falciparum with higher false-negative in medical institutions (P < 0.001). Conclusions: In conclusion, competent microscopy in subnational verification supported the quality in eliminating malaria in China, while the accurate identification of malaria parasites, especially slides with low parasite density still need to be improved through continuous diagnostic platform construction, continuous technological innovation, and targeted training to prevent reestablishment of malaria transmission.

Plasmodium vivax in the Elimination Phase - China, 2013-2020.

What is already known about this topic?: Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) was the most widely distributed and major human malaria parasite in China, considered the last parasite to be eliminated. What is added by this report?: The last domestic P. vivax case was reported in 2016, while hundreds of imported cases were reported annually from 2013-2020, predominantly from Southeast Asia. What are the implications for public health practice?: In the post-elimination phase, adaptive and practical strategies focusing on imported P. vivax cases should be updated and adopted to prevent malaria resurgence.

Vector control in China, from malaria endemic to elimination and challenges ahead.

BACKGROUND: Vector control is an important approach to preventing and controlling malaria. From the malaria epidemic to malaria elimination in China, vector control has played an essential and irreplaceable role in the historical process. This review systematically summarizes the evolution, adjustment, and optimization of vector control strategy towards elimination and discusses the challenges ahead. MAIN TEXT: This review first summarizes the evolution of vector control strategies during different stages of malaria epidemic, control, elimination, and post-elimination in China. We then distill the vector control experience and lessons in different stages. We discuss the current and future challenges and propose future research directions and developments for novel malaria vector control strategies. RESULTS: Vector control has played an invaluable role in achieving malaria elimination. China adopted different prevention and control measures in response to the different malaria-endemic situations and vector distributions. Firstly, baseline surveys were initiated to establish the entomological data and helped clarify the prevention priorities and targets. Secondly, targeted and adjusted vector control strategies were conducted in various regions according to the local epidemic characteristics and different vector species. Thirdly, scientific research facilitated efficient vector-control strategies. In addition, the overall economic and social development have promoted environmental improvement, personal protection, and health care. Prediction of the vector distribution was integrated into risk assessment strategies, allowing for sustaining achievements in risk areas. CONCLUSIONS: The tailored and adapted vector control strategies have played a critical role in China's malaria prevention, control, and elimination. Achievements and lessons learned on vector control from this progress would provide a practical reference in coping with the challenges and potential barriers other countries face in the global effort to eliminate malaria.

Key takeaways from China's success in eliminating malaria: leveraging existing evidence for a malaria-free world.

Although the total number of malaria cases and fatalities have declined globally since 2010, there were still 241 million malaria cases identified across 85 countries and territories in 2020. As the global malaria eradication process accelerates, more countries have launched their own initiatives of elimination. Notably, China achieved this goal by 2021, ending thousands of years of endemic. Undoubtedly, tremendous experience and vital lessons have been accrued en route to the malaria-free goal in malaria-eliminated countries including China. To enhance prospects of a malaria-free world by bridging the key evidence from a malaria-eliminated country to the contexts of affected, this personal view highlights concerted commitments and universal investment in healthcare, improved surveillance and response system, constant capacity building, demand-oriented scientific research, and multiway cooperation, which have helped China to eliminate this ancient scourge. We discuss how these key takeaways could be leveraged to different contexts. We also argue the long-term challenges and barriers on the pathway to malaria elimination and underline the needs for consistent efforts to maintain zero indigenous cases and prevent re-introduction of malaria. Through concerted efforts from global collaboration, a malaria-free world can become a reality.

Prevalence of antifolate drug resistance markers in Plasmodium vivax in China.

The dihydrofolate reductase (dhfr) and dihydropteroate synthetase (dhps) genes of Plasmodium vivax, as antifolate resistance-associated genes were used for drug resistance surveillance. A total of 375 P. vivax isolates collected from different geographical locations in China in 2009-2019 were used to sequence Pvdhfr and Pvdhps. The majority of the isolates harbored a mutant type allele for Pvdhfr (94.5%) and Pvdhps (68.2%). The most predominant point mutations were S117T/N (77.7%) in Pvdhfr and A383G (66.8%) in Pvdhps. Amino acid changes were identified at nine residues in Pvdhfr. A quadruple-mutant haplotype at 57, 58, 61, and 117 was the most frequent (57.4%) among 16 distinct Pvdhfr haplotypes. Mutations in Pvdhps were detected at six codons, and the double-mutant A383G/A553G was the most prevalent (39.3%). Pvdhfr exhibited a higher mutation prevalence and greater diversity than Pvdhps in China. Most isolates from Yunnan carried multiple mutant haplotypes, while the majority of samples from temperate regions and Hainan Island harbored the wild type or single mutant type. This study indicated that the antifolate resistance levels of P. vivax parasites were different across China and molecular markers could be used to rapidly monitor drug resistance. Results provided evidence for updating national drug policy and treatment guidelines.

Laboratory diagnosis for malaria in the elimination phase in China: efforts and challenges.

Malaria remains a global health challenge, although an increasing number of countries will enter pre-elimination and elimination stages. The prompt and precise diagnosis of symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium parasites is the key aspect of malaria elimination. Since the launch of the China Malaria Elimination Action Plan in 2010, China has formulated clear goals for malaria diagnosis and has established a network of malaria diagnostic laboratories within medical and health institutions at all levels. Various external quality assessments were implemented, and a national malaria diagnosis reference laboratory network was established to strengthen the quality assurance in malaria diagnosis. Notably, no indigenous malaria cases have been reported since 2017, but the risk of re-establishment of malaria transmission cannot be ignored. This review summarizes the lessons about malaria diagnosis in the elimination phase, primarily including the establishments of laboratory networks and quality control in China, to better improve malaria diagnosis and maintain a malaria-free status. A reference is also provided for countries experiencing malaria elimination.