RESUMO
To quantitatively evaluate the co-benefits of air pollution reduction and carbon dioxide reduction of Taiyuan's 14th Five-Year Plan air pollution prevention and control policies, this study used the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interaction and Synergy Model (GAINS-JJJ) to simulate and evaluate the emission reduction potential and CO2 co-benefit of 13 air pollution control measures. The emission reductions of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NOx, VOCs, and NH3 in 2025 were 1.8 (5%, compared with that in the baseline scenario), 2.5 (2%), 3.7 (16%), 20.0 (27%), 13.6 (15%), and 0.0 kt (0%), respectively. The reduction in CO2 emissions was 9.0 Mt (13%), whereas CH4 emissions increased by 203.3 kt (25% increase relative to that in the baseline scenario). SO2, NOx, and VOCs emission reductions derived from the power, industrial combustion, and solvent use sectors. CO2 reduction occurred mainly in the industrial combustion sector, and CH4 emission increased mainly due to the increase in coal mining activity. The highest synergistic CO2 reductions were achieved by restricting energy consumption in the high energy-consuming and high-emitting sectors; prohibiting new capacity in the steel, coke, cement, and flat glass industries; and replacing coal-fired power generation with renewable energy. Furthermore, the CO2 reduction co-benefit was highest for VOCs. In addition, this study suggests that promoting the policy of terminal electrification and simultaneously increasing the share of clean energy and the ability to consume renewable energy generation in the power sector are the keys to decreasing the emissions in Taiyuan.
