[Spatial management strategy of Zhujiajian Island based on island ecological vulnerability simulation]. / 基于海岛生态脆弱性模拟的朱家尖岛空间管控对策.

In the past decade, the number of islands fixed link with mainland has been increasing rapidly. The construction of such projects improves the accessibility of islands, which results in a rapid increase of tourists and economic income. However, the rapid change of land use and increases of tourists will make the islands more vulnerable. It is urgent to formulate ecosystem management strategy for island ecosystems based on the scientifical prediction of the island ecological vulnerability and accurate identification of sensitive areas. Island ecological vulnerability assessment model was used to evaluate the ecological vulnerability of Zhujiajian Island. Taking 2015 as the starting date, we simulated the changes of tourists and land use, as well as the changes of island ecological vulnerability in the next 20 years. Then, the management strategy was formulated based on the vulnerability assessment and sensitive analysis. The results showed that the ecosystem of Zhujiajian Island was in good condition now, with limited area at moderate and severe vulnerable status. With the rapid increases of tourists and island development intensity, the ecological vulnerability of the island tended to more vulnerability with the increases of severe vulnerability and shrink of low vulnerability. According to the vulnerability assessment and sensitivity analysis, the Zhujiajian Island could be divided into prohibited development zones, restricted development zones and conditional development zones with different ecosystem management strategies.

[Relationships of wetland landscape fragmentation with climate change in middle reaches of Heihe River, China].

Based on the 1975-2010 multi-temporal remotely sensed TM and ETM images and meteorological data, in combining with wavelet analysis, trend surface simulation, and interpolation method, this paper analyzed the meteorological elements' spatial distribution and change characteristics in the middle reaches of Heihe River, and elucidated the process of wetland landscape fragmentation in the study area by using the landscape indices patch density (PD), mean patch size (MPS), and patch shape fragment index (FS). The relationships between the wetland landscape fragmentation and climate change were also approached through correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis. In 1975-2010, the overall distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature in the study area were low precipitation in high temperature regions and high precipitation in low temperature regions, and the main characteristics of climate change were the conversion from dry to wet and from cold to warm. In the whole study period, the wetland landscape fragmentation was mainly manifested in the decrease of MPS, with a decrement of 48.95 hm2, and the increase of PD, with an increment of 0.006 ind x hm(-2).