RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Clinical comprehensive decision-making of diabetic ulcers includes curative effect evaluation and curative effect prediction. Nevertheless, there are few studies on the prediction of diabetic ulcers. METHODS: Set pair analysis (SPA) was used to assess the curative effect evaluation, and therapeutic effect was evaluated by connection degree (CD). The higher-order Markov chain-SPA curative effect prediction model was established to predict the future curative effect development. The predicted results with higher-order Markov chain-SPA and traditional first-order Markov-SPA model were compared with the actual results of the patients to verify the effectiveness of prediction. RESULTS: The connection degree of index levels I and II of 15 patients with diabetic ulcers after traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) treatment increased with time, while that of index levels IV and V decreased, indicating that the curative effect tends to improve. The higher-order Markov chain-SPA model was used to predict the curative effect. The results showed that the relative errors were fewer than the traditional first-order Markov-SPA model. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that a method of SPA combined with higher-order Markov-SPA is relatively effective and can be applied to the clinical prediction of diabetic ulcers, which has higher accuracy than traditional first-order curative effect prediction model.
RESUMO
Because treatment of diabetic ulcers includes various uncertainties, efficacy assessments are needed and significant. In previous studies, set pair analysis (SPA) has been applied to the efficacy assessments of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) that pick out uncertainties related to the development and prognosis of disease. Optimized clinical protocols of SPA improve clinical efficacy. In the article, cloud model (CM) is employed to improve SPA, and a novel efficacy assessment method for a treatment of diabetic ulcers is proposed based on the cloud model-set pair analysis (CM-SPA). It is recommended to replace connection degree (CD) with cloud connection degree (CCD) that the efficacy assessment results are shown as normal clouds. Then, three diabetic ulcers patients treated with TCM made importance assessment by both CM-SPA and AHP based SPA. The comparison of assessment results shows that the CM-SPA is efficacious for the efficacy assessment of a treatment for diabetic ulcers and the results will be more scientific and accurate via CM-SPA.
