Impacts and prediction of land use change on ecosystem carbon sequestration in Zhejiang Province, China.

It is crucial to clarify the impact of land use change on ecosystem carbon sequestration service for exploring natural-based carbon neutral solutions. We used InVEST and FLUS models to analyze land use change and its impacts on ecosystem carbon sequestration service in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2021, and predict ecosystem carbon sequestration service potential and its economic value of land use pattern in 2035 and 2050 under three scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection. The results showed that the area of cultivated land, forest, grassland, and water was continuously reducing and the area of construction land was continuously increasing from 2000 to 2021 in Zhejiang Province. The total amount of ecosystem carbon sequestration service decreased by 29.9658 million t, and the net income of carbon sequestrqtion service was -170.7184 million dollars. The distribution of ecosystem carbon sequestration services showed a spatial pattern of high in the southwest and low in the northeast. In the future, the total amount of ecosystem carbon sequestration services in Zhejiang Province would be the highest under the ecological protection scenario, followed by the cultivated land protection scenario, and the lowest under the natural development scenario. From 2021 to 2035 and 2050, ecosystem carbon sequestration services in Zhejiang Province would increase by 3.2326 million and 4.73 million t respectively under the ecological protection scenario, generating carbon sequestration service benefits of 77.0786 million and 111.8391 million dollars, respectively. Under the cultivated land protection scenario, it would be reduced by 10.1318 million and 16.1611 million t, and the net loss of carbon sequestration service value would be 241.3849 million and 381.9109 million dollars, respectively. Under the natural development scenario, it would be reduced by 11.6490 million and 16.1651 million t, resulting in a net loss of carbon sequestration service value of 277.5393 million and 382.0063 million dollars, respectively. In the context of actively addressing climate change and striving to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, Zhejiang Province should focus on protecting ecological land such as woodlands, grasslands, and water, expand the scale of ecological land, optimize the spatial structure of ecological land, and continuously enhance carbon sequestration and sink enhancement functions of ecological land.

Decoupling agriculture pollution and carbon reduction from economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, and agricultural nonpoint source pollution and carbon emissions are the main environmental problems limiting the development of the agricultural economy. This study takes the Yangtze River Delta as the research object and measures agricultural carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution in the study area from 2010 to 2020 respectively. The Tapio decoupling model is used to study types of decoupling between agricultural pollution and carbon reduction and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020, and the GM (1,1) model is used to predict the decoupling relationship between the agricultural environment and economic growth over the next ten years. The results show the following: (1) Agricultural COD emissions come mainly from livestock and poultry breeding, dropped from 1,130,120 tons in 2010 to 908,460 tons in 2020. Agricultural TN and TP emissions come mainly from plantations. Agricultural TN emissions dropped from 892,310 tons in 2010 to 788,020 tons in 2020. Agricultural TP emissions dropped from 149,590 tons in 2010 to130,770 tons in 2020. Agricultural carbon emissions dropped from 17,115,900 tons in 2010 to 15,786,600 tons in 2020, and come mainly from agricultural fertilizer and diesel fuel and pig breeding. (2) The decoupling effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Yangtze River Delta and economic growth has been in a long-term state, with negative decoupling occurring in a few regions, mainly in 2011, 2014 and 2020. (3) In the next ten years, except for 2021, when the coordination between agricultural pollution reduction and economic growth is poor, the two show good decoupling in the remaining years. Based on the results, this study makes recommendations on how to carry out comprehensive environmental management and promote green agricultural development.

Exploring ecosystem carbon storage change and scenario simulation in the Qiantang River source region of China.

To explore the impact of land-use change on carbon storage, this study coupled the InVEST model and the FLUS model to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon storage in the Qiantang River source region from 2000 to 2030. The carbon storage in the study area is evaluated which declined rapidly from 166.22 × 106 t in 2000 to 164.41 × 106 t in 2020, and the spatial distribution of carbon storage could be characterized by "the northwest and the southwest of region with higher, the east and the centre of the region with lower". The carbon storage was simulated based on the historical trend development scenario, the food security scenario, and the ecological protection scenario. The carbon storage with the food security scenario could achieve 162.74 × 106 t in 2030. The carbon storage with the ecological protection scenario had an increase of 62.60 t/km2 compared to the historical natural tendency development. Interestingly, the food security scenario had the smallest carbon loss value which is about $1.39 × 109, and its net carbon storage value was the largest which is about $3.71 × 109. The results of this study could provide a scientific reference for the conservation of carbon storage and land use management for climate change and sustainable development. This paper also can lay the foundation for subsequent further studies such as artificial intelligence.

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The imbalance of regional development is one of the important obstacles for the implementation of regio-nal coordinated development strategy. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019, the regional coordinated development index system with five subsystems was constructed, including economic development, science and education, infrastructure, people's life, and resource and environment. With the help of GeoDa and ArcGIS software, we used measurement model of regional coordinated development and method of exploratory spatial data analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial variations and internal correlation of various elements of regional coordinated development in the Yangtze River Delta. The results showed that, from the perspective of regional development, the coordination of regional development in the Yangtze River Delta had increased annually from 2010 to 2019. The level of economic development and science and education in Shanghai and Suzhou was ahead of other cities, while the development coordination of Northwest Anhui, Zhoushan and Huangshan was weaker than other cities. The order of average autocorrelation degree of each subsystem from high to low in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019 was people's life, economic development, resource and environment, science and education, and infrastructure. Among them, the global Moran's index (Moran I) of economic development and science and education subsystem showed a downward trend, while science and education subsystem showed no significant correlation. Moran I of infrastructure subsystem was mostly at the low level with a great fluctuation in different years. People's life had obvious spatial characteristics of high-high and low-low agglomeration. The global Moran I of resources and environment showed a pattern of "V" distribution. Economic development and science and education were the two factors most closely related to regional coordinated development.

Spatiotemporal Pattern of Urban-Rural Integration Development and Its Driving Mechanism Analysis in Hangzhou Bay Urban Agglomeration.

The quantitative analysis of the urban-rural integration development (URID) level and its driving factors is of great significance for the new-type urbanization of urban agglomerations. This study constructed a multidimensional framework in the perspective of a population-space-economy-society-ecology framework to measure the URID level from 2000 to 2020 and further explored the driving mechanism of the URID changes by a geographical detector model in the Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration (HBUA). The results showed that the land-use change in the HBUA from 2000 to 2020 showed a typical characteristic of the transition between cultivated and construction land. The URID level in the HBUA improved from 0.294 in 2000 to 0.563 in 2020, and the year 2005 may have been the inflection point of URID in the HBUA. The URID level showed a significant spatial aggregation with high values. Hangzhou, Jiaxing, and Ningbo were hot spots since 2015, and the cold spots were Huzhou and Shaoxing. The population and spatial integration had more important impacts on URID levels in 2000, 2005, and 2020, while economic and social integration had more significant impacts on URID levels in 2010 and 2015. This study provided a deeper understanding of the evolution of URID in an urban agglomeration and could be used as a reference for decision makers.

Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Green Agricultural Science and Technology Progress: A Case Study in Yangtze River Delta of China.

Green agricultural science and technology progress (GASTP) plays an important role in the green transformation of agriculture. This study calculates the contribution rate of GASTP by using the Super-SBM model in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2011 to 2020. The exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) method and the Fixed Effect (FE) panel data model method were adopted to empirically analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of GASTP and its driving mechanism in the YRD. The results showed that: (i) except for Shanghai from 2011 to 2015, the contribution rate of GASTP in the YRD was generally lower than 1 in Anhui Province, Jiangsu Province, and Zhejiang Province, (ii) the level of GASTP had a positive spatial correlation with the study period, except for 2017, and (iii) per capita GDP, agricultural mechanization level, agricultural financial support, and planting structure are four influencing factors of GASTP in the YRD, while total retail sales of social consumer goods and total exports did not have significant effects on GASTP in the YRD. Therefore, we need to increase the opportunities to exchange GASTP experience between cities, improve the environment for agricultural technology extension, and develop follow-up monitoring mechanisms.

Does Non-Food Cultivation of Cropland Increase Farmers' Income?

The production of cash crops is often regarded as an effective way to increase farmers' income. This study evaluates the impact of non-food cultivation of cropland on farmers' income by using the least-squares (OLS) model in Zhejiang Province, eastern China. Farmers are further divided into different groups according to their income levels to analyze the different impacts of non-food cultivation on their household income. The result shows that non-food cultivation has a significant negative effect on farmers' income, with a more pronounced effect on farmers with a relatively low income. Accordingly, the increase in the proportion of cash crops that are grown does not increase the income of farmers in Zhejiang; instead, this harms their income. Therefore, farmers in Zhejiang should not rely on the cultivation of cash crops for their prosperity but must focus on participating in non-farm employment to increase their household income.

Value Realization and Optimization Path of Forest Ecological Products-Case Study from Zhejiang Province, China.

In the last decade, more and more attention has been paid to the efficiency of ecological products' value in the literature. Studying the value-conversion efficiency of forest ecological products can measure and reflect the huge value contained in forests, which is of great significance to promote the transformation between "clear water and green mountains" and "gold and silver mountains" as well as solve the problem of economic development and environmental protection. Studying the value-conversion efficiency of forest ecological products can scientifically evaluate the results of the mutual transformation of "clear water and green mountains" and "gold and silver mountains", which is of great significance for deepening the theory of the "two mountains". This paper took Zhejiang Province as the research object, constructed an index system of forest ecological products' value accounting, used the super-SBM model and Malmquist index to calculate the conversion efficiency of forest ecological products' value, and proposed optimization paths according to the research results. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the value of forest ecological products in Zhejiang Province showed a fluctuating upward trend. In 2020, the total value of forest ecological products was RMB 973.717 billion. Among them, the value of material products was RMB 12.560 billion, the value of ecological regulatory products was RMB 726.323 billion, and the value of cultural service products was RMB 234.834 billion. (2) There were great differences in the value-conversion efficiency of forest ecological products among cities in Zhejiang Province, but the overall trend was steady and developing in a positive direction. (3) The total-factor productivity of forest ecological products in Zhejiang Province showed a fluctuating trend, and its growth was mainly limited by the technical efficiency and technological progress index. (4) The main reasons for the conversion-efficiency loss of forest ecological products' value in Zhejiang Province were excessive input and insufficient output. The specific reasons for the loss of efficiency in different cities were different, so it is necessary to find improvement paths according to local conditions. Our research provides a new perspective for the academic community to evaluate the value-realization effect of ecological products as well as a decision-making reference for policy makers of ecological environmental protection and construction.