Predictors of costs of caring for elderly patients discharged with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Investments in programs to improve outcomes and reduce readmissions for patients who survive hospitalization with heart failure will be economically most favorable for those who have the highest risk. Little information is available, however, to stratify the risk of these patients incurring costs after discharge. In this study, we sought to determine correlates of costs in a representative sample of patients with heart failure in the 6 months after discharge. METHODS: We reviewed medical records of 2181 patients aged > or = 65 years who were discharged alive from 18 Connecticut hospitals in 1994 and 1995 with a principal discharge diagnosis of heart failure. Outcomes 6 months after discharge, including all-cause readmission and cost, heart failure-related readmission and cost, and death, were obtained from the Medicare administrative database. A 2-stage sample selection model was used to identify the independent correlates of cost. Risk scores were calculated to identify subsets of patients at risk for generating high costs. RESULTS: On average, patients discharged with heart failure incurred costs of $2388 resulting from heart failure-related admissions and $7101 resulting from admissions from any cause during the 6 months after discharge. An average admission for heart failure cost $7174, whereas an admission resulting from any cause cost $8589. The multivariate models explained 7% of the variation in cost, although clinical characteristics such as recent heart failure admissions, kidney failure, and hypertension were significant independent correlates of increased cost. Older age and a history of stroke were independently associated with decreased cost. Patients without any of the risk factors associated with increased costs still incurred $1500 to $5000, on average, in the 6 months after discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with heart failure generate substantial hospital costs in the 6 months after discharge. Given the emerging evidence for effective programs to reduce readmission, investments in interventions that produce even modest reductions in risk would be economically favorable.

Risk profile and prediction of long-term ischemic stroke mortality: a 21-year follow-up in the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease (IIHD) Project.

BACKGROUND: Multinational comparisons demonstrate marked ethnic and regional variation in stroke mortality and risk-factor distribution. We assessed the role of ethnicity and estimated the cumulative effect of multiple risk factors on long-term ischemic stroke mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Civil servants and municipal employees in Israel (n=9734 men; age, >/=42 years), chosen by stratified sampling in 6 prespecified areas of birth (those born in Israel and those who were immigrants from 5 other regional-ethnic strata), were included in the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease (IIHD) Project. Over a 21-year follow-up period, age-adjusted mortality rates per 10 000 person-years attributed to ischemic stroke (n=282; International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-9 codes 433 to 438) were higher among immigrants to Israel from northern Africa and the Mideast (17.1 to 19.0), than from 3 parts of Europe (11.3 to 12.4). Crude rates per 1000 subjects observed in those born in Asia or Africa (29.4 to 31.2) exceeded rates predicted by risk-factor profiles (21.4 to 24.9). Adjusted hazard ratios were 3.00 for age (per 10 years), 2.15 for left ventricular hypertrophy, 1.69 for systolic blood pressure (BP, per 20 mm Hg), 1.86 for diabetes mellitus, 1.83 for peripheral vascular disease, 1.79 for smoking (>20 cigarettes per day), 1.51 for coronary heart disease, 1.16 for percent cholesterol contained in the HDL fraction (%HDL, per 5% decrease), and 1.88 for diastolic BP (per 12 mm Hg; assessed in an alternative model). Accounting for regression dilution bias and assessed from repeat measurements, we found that hazard ratio estimates associated with diastolic BP, systolic BP, and percent HDL (per increments described) increased to 3.22, 2.23, and 1.23, respectively. Ischemic stroke mortality rates were 30-fold greater among subjects at the highest versus the lowest quintile of predicted probability according to risk-factor profiles (81.2 versus 2.6 per 1000 subjects). CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of multiple risk factors provides useful quantitative prediction of long-term ischemic stroke mortality risk. Regional-ethnic variations are consistent with a hypothesis that other, undetermined inherent genetic or sociocultural factors act to increase ischemic stroke mortality rates in immigrants to Israel from the Mideast and northern Africa over that predicted by conventional risk factors.

Voluntary and involuntary weight loss: associations with long term mortality in 9,228 middle-aged and elderly men.

Recent studies have suggested that weight loss in middle-aged persons antecedes increased mortality. Therefore, the authors sought to examine the association between changes in body weight and subsequent mortality, according to self-reported dieting status. The authors followed 9,228 men aged 40-65 years in 1963, for whom weight changes between 1963 and 1968 were recorded and extensive clinical, anthropometric, biochemical, and dietary assessments were made. Of these men, 2,471 reported being on a diet when first examined in 1963, and 636 were dieting primarily to lose weight. Mortality follow-up covered an 18-year period (1968-1986). Men who lost 5 kg or more between 1963 and 1968 ("extreme weight losers") exhibited the following age-pooled risks of mortality relative to the stable weight group: for total mortality, 1.36 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-1.55); for all cardiovascular disease mortality, 1.40 (95% CI 1.16-1.69); for all non-cardiovascular disease mortality, 1.33 (95% CI 1.11-1.59); for coronary heart disease mortality, 1.55 (95% CI 1.25-1.93); and for cancer mortality, 0.90 (95% CI 0.65-1.24). After adjustment for differences in coronary heart disease risk factor levels and morbidity between these groups at the end of the weight change period (1968), the excess risks associated with extreme weight loss declined by approximately one third. They declined further if adjustment was made for 1963 (pre-weight-change period) morbidity and risk factor levels. Being on a slimming diet, as reported in 1963, was associated with an approximate doubling of excess mortality in men with extreme weight loss. Weight loss in 1963-1968 coincided with an increased incidence of coronary heart disease and diabetes mellitus and a declining level of serum total cholesterol. This and other studies indicate that both voluntary and involuntary weight loss might be associated with a small increase in the risk of all-cause mortality.

Intermittent claudication in 8343 men and 21-year specific mortality follow-up.

PURPOSE: As Western populations live longer, peripheral vascular disease will become a greater individual and public health problem. Therefore, the long-term natural history of intermittent claudication (IC) needs further delineation. The study objective was to describe the 21-year mortality and relative risk for cause-specific mortality for subjects with incident IC. METHODS: The subjects were 8343 Israeli male governmental employees aged 40-65 years who were free of coronary heart disease and symptomatic peripheral vascular disease in 1963. These men were followed for 21 years to measure differences in mortality between those who did and did not develop incident IC. Incident IC was diagnosed in 1965 and 1968 by the London School of Hygiene IC Questionnaire. All other cardiovascular disease risk factors were measured by standardized and validated procedures. Cause-specific mortality through 1986 was determined through death certificates from the Israeli Mortality Register. RESULTS: A total of 360 men with IC and 7983 symptom-free men were followed for survival from 1965 to 1986; 159 men with IC (44%) and 2330 symptom-free men (29%) died. For total mortality, the Kaplan-Meier 21-year survival probabilities were 56% for IC and 71% for symptom-free men (P < 0.0001 for the entire 21-year survival difference between the two groups). For coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and other causes of death, the survival probabilities for men with IC and symptom-free men were, respectively: 85% vs. 90%, 89% vs. 97%, and 79% vs. 83% (P = 0.0004; P < 0.0001; and P = 0.007, respectively, for the entire 21-year survival difference between the two groups). Cox's proportional hazards model was used to control confounding from incident myocardial infarction and angina through 1968, as well as for demographic, physiologic, psychosocial, and other cardiovascular disease risk factors. The 21-year adjusted all-cause mortality relative risk for IC was 1.50 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.28-1.77). For stroke deaths the relative risk was 2.76 (95% CI, 1.89-4.02). For stroke mortality, IC was the third strongest predictor of death after elevated systolic blood pressure and increasing age. Incident IC had a relative risk of CHD deaths of 1.31, but it was not statistically significant (P = 0.08; 95% CI, 0.97-1.77). IC was not statistically significantly related to other causes of death (P = 0.10) after adjustment for covariates. CONCLUSIONS: IC is strongly predictive of long-term cerebrovascular disease mortality among men. Incident IC is a stronger indicator of cerebrovascular than of CHD death.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol and risk of ischemic stroke mortality. A 21-year follow-up of 8586 men from the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: While there is overwhelming evidence relating low levels of HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) with coronary heart disease, the association with cerebrovascular disease is not clear. The aim of the present report was to assess the association between HDL-C levels and ischemic stroke mortality obtained from a long-term follow-up in the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease Study. METHODS: The subjects of this report are 8586 men, tenured civil servants and municipal employees, aged 42 years or older at the time of HDL-C measurements in 1965. They were followed up for mortality for 21 years. Death due to cerebrovascular disease included the International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision, codes 430 to 438, of which presumed ischemic stroke included codes 433 to 438. RESULTS: During the 21-year follow-up, 295 men died from cerebrovascular events, of which 241 deaths were due to presumed ischemic stroke. Individuals subsequently experiencing a fatal ischemic stroke had a marginally lower age-adjusted mean HDL-C (1.05 mmol/L) and a significantly lower (P < .001) age-adjusted mean percentage of serum cholesterol contained in the HDL fraction (%HDL) (19.3%) than counterparts surviving the follow-up period (1.06 mmol/L and 20.6%, respectively). Decreasing age-adjusted rates of ischemic stroke mortality were observed with increasing %HDL: 14.6, 14.0, and 11.8 per 10,000 person-years in the low, middle, and upper tertiles of %HDL, respectively. In multivariate analysis, a low concentration of HDL-C appeared to be significantly predictive of ischemic stroke mortality. The relative risk associated with a 5% decrease of %HDL was 1.18 (95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.34). Men at the lower tertile of HDL-C levels experienced a 1.32-fold increase of covariate-adjusted ischemic stroke mortality risk compared with counterparts at the upper tertile. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study of middle-aged and elderly men from a healthy, working population, we have demonstrated an independent negative association between HDL-C and ischemic stroke mortality during a long-term (21-year) follow-up.

Isolated low HDL cholesterol as a risk factor for coronary heart disease mortality. A 21-year follow-up of 8000 men.

For the purpose of screening individuals at high risk for coronary heart disease (CHD), serum total cholesterol (TC) of 5.2 mmol/L, has been set as a value dividing "desirable" from intermediate high or elevated levels, and HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) < 0.9 mmol/L has been labeled as abnormally low, implying high CHD risk. It has been conjectured that low HDL-C poses no risk in the absence of elevated LDL cholesterol or TC. To assess the risk of CHD-free men with "isolated low HDL-C," ie, abnormally low HDL-C with desirable TC, we examined the CHD and all-cause mortality of some 8000 Israeli men aged 42 years and older during 1965 through 1986. Men with isolated low HDL-C represented one sixth of the cohort. CHD mortality among these men was 36% higher (age adjusted) than in counterparts with desirable TC, of which > 0.9 mmol/L was contained in the high-density fraction. In men with TC > 5.2 mmol/L, abnormally low HDL-C was associated with a virtually identical CHD mortality risk ratio, 38%. These findings persisted after adjustment for multiple CHD risk factors. The excess CHD risk associated with isolated low HDL-C appeared particularly increased in men with diabetes mellitus, whose death rate was 65% higher than in diabetics with HDL-C > 0.9 mmol/L. A second subgroup result was consistent with equal CHD mortality risk among men in the "desirable" TC range, with or without low HDL-C, if systolic blood pressure was > 160 mm Hg. These are post hoc findings, and hypotheses arising from these observations would require independent examination. Total mortality was not increased in men with isolated low HDL-C compared with men who had HDL-C < 0.9 mmol/L and TC > 5.2 mmol/L at baseline. These results indicate that an increased risk of CHD death is associated with abnormally low HDL-C for cholesterol ranges both below and above 5.2 mmol/L. For the individual, therefore, the risk is multiplied by the same amount regardless of TC. Quitting smoking, increasing physical activity, and decreasing body weight would all contribute to raise HDL-C in individuals of most or all age groups. When examined from a community perspective, the results are consistent with a relatively low population-attributable fraction among CHD-free men. This would tend to support the recommended practice of considering a TC level of 5.2 mmol/L (200 mg/dL) as a threshold for further evaluation in screened individuals without manifest CHD.

Plasma fibrinogen in Israeli Moslem and Jewish school-children: distribution and relation to other cardiovascular risk factors. The Petah Tikva project.

Plasma fibrinogen levels were measured in 1,175 Israeli schoolchildren, aged 9-18 years, originating from diverse ethnic groups. The Moslem children displayed striking differences in levels and age-patterns of fibrinogen compared to Jewish children. Lower mean plasma fibrinogen levels in boys aged 9-10, 13-14 and 16-18 were observed among Moslem boys, compared to their Jewish counterparts born in Israel. Moslem girls showed lower levels of fibrinogen than Jewish Israeli girls at ages 9-10 and 16-18. While the Jewish children displayed an age-associated fibrinogen pattern comparable at the three age groups, the levels for Moslem children increased pre-puberty and decreased post-puberty, peaking at 13-14 years. No significant difference in mean plasma fibrinogen was found between sexes within ethnic groups. A number of statistically significant but low correlations (-0.32 to 0.24) were found between plasma fibrinogen and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) as a percentage of total cholesterol, triglycerides, blood glucose, uric acid, blood pressure, Quetelet index and sports activity. The difference between fibrinogen levels might point to a possible ethnicity risk factor explanation rather than environmentally acquired factors.

Are lean smokers at increased risk of lung cancer? The Israel Civil Servant Cancer Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether leanness is related to an increased risk of lung cancer is controversial. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of leanness with lung cancer incidence in a sample of Israeli men. METHODS: The 23-year lung cancer incidence (1963 through 1986) was determined by linkage to the Israel Cancer Registry in 9975 male civil servants aged 40 through 69 years at initial examination in 1963. In 198,298 person-years of follow-up, 153 cases of lung cancer were identified. In 1963, body mass index (BMI) and cigarette smoking status were determined; in the 1968 reexamination, lung function tests were performed and BMI was reassessed. RESULTS: Adjusted for age, smoking, and city by Cox regression, BMI was exponentially inversely related to lung cancer incidence, with a relative risk of 2.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4 to 3.8) comparing the lowest fifth of BMI (< 22.93 kg/m2) with the highest. The association was evident in light, moderate, and heavy smokers. Among smokers, the adjusted relative risk was 3.7 (95% CI, 1.9 to 7.3) for the lowest fifth of BMI. The associations were stronger for men in the lowest 10th of the BMI distribution (< 21.38 kg/m2). Controlling for lung function did not materially change the results. The adjusted population-attributable fraction associated with the lowest fifth of BMI among smokers was 20.4% (95% CI, 10.1% to 29.9%). Survival analysis showed that the association of BMI with lung cancer persisted throughout follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The association shown between thinness and lung cancer incidence, particularly in smokers, was not attributable to the confounding factors studied, preclinical weight loss, or competing risks. Thinness in smokers may lead to, or may reflect, enhanced host susceptibility.

Self-reported physical activity predicts long-term coronary heart disease and all-cause mortalities. Twenty-one-year follow-up of the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether self-reported physical activity predicts a decreased rate of coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortalities in middle-aged men when rates are adjusted for known confounders. DESIGN: Cohort Analytic Study of Israeli government employees in 1963. SUBJECTS: Eight thousand four hundred sixty-three Israeli male government employees, aged 40 years or older, representing six areas of birth, excluding those with known cardiovascular disease in either 1963 or 1965, from an original cohort of 10,059. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Comparison of rates of death due to CHD and all causes, determined from death certificates in 21 years of follow-up, for subjects with different baseline levels of self-reported leisure-time and work-related physical activities measured in 1965. RESULTS: Self-reported leisure-time but not work-related physical activity was inversely related to both CHD (adjusted relative risk, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.66 to 0.95) and all-cause mortalities (adjusted relative risk, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 0.99). Most of the apparent benefit accrued was from light physical activity on less than a daily basis. These inverse relationships persisted after adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, body mass index, psychosocial factors, and other potential confounders. CONCLUSION: Baseline levels of self-reported leisure-time physical activity predicted a decreased rate of CHD and all-cause mortalities in employed middle-aged Israeli men followed up prospectively for 21 years.

Long-term mortality of Nazi concentration camp survivors.

Nazi concentration camp survivors have been shown to have excess mortality in the first 20 years following their release. To determine if this excess persists, Israeli civil servants were studied. Mortality of camp survivors and of other post-war European immigrants was compared 20-41 years following World War II. Using survival analysis and proportional hazards models, no difference in mortality rates was found.

Divergent age-associated patterns of high density lipoprotein cholesterol and its percentage in Jewish and Moslem Arab Israeli children and adolescents: the Petach Tikva Project.

We studied three groups of Israeli Jewish schoolchildren in and surrounding Petach Tikva, Israel, cross-sectionally, at ages 9-10, 13-14, and 16-18 years, and compared lipid and lipoprotein levels and age-associated lipoprotein patterns in the same age groups of boys and girls in neighboring Israeli Moslem Arab schools during 1986-1987. Moslem children displayed striking differences in the levels of lipids and age-associated patterns of lipoproteins compared with Jewish schoolchildren. The mean total cholesterol levels were lower in the Moslem children, in both sexes, in every age grouping. High density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels were significantly higher at age 16-18 in the Moslem boys than in the Jewish boys. While the Jewish boys displayed a previously reported "typical" pattern of lower HDL-C levels postpuberty compared with prepuberty, the Moslem boys had markedly higher mean HDL-C levels at age 16-18 compared with those at age 9-10. The Moslem girls also had higher HDL-C levels at age 16-18 than those observed in the age 9-10 group. Concomitantly higher HDL-C levels (HDL-C/total cholesterol (%)) were seen in the Moslem boys and girls, at age 16-18 compared with age 9-10, but were not observed in the Jewish children. The identification of an ethnic group in whom HDL-C appears to increase at or near puberty could provide opportunities to elucidate factors that may increase HDL-C in individuals or in populations.

Factors predictive of long-term coronary heart disease mortality among 10,059 male Israeli civil servants and municipal employees. A 23-year mortality follow-up in the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease Study.

Over 10,000 male civil servants and municipal employees in Israel, aged 40 years and above, underwent an extensive clinical, biochemical, anthropometric, sociodemographic and psychosocial evaluation in 1963, 1965 and 1968. Follow-up for mortality was continued through 1986. Over 23 years, a number of previously established risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence were found to predict mortality. The long-term follow-up assisted in illustrating temporal patterns. A single causal assessment of blood pressure retained high prediction for long-term mortality. Blood lipids, while significantly associated with both coronary and all-cause mortality, exhibited a small contribution to the latter, when compared to hypertension, cigarette smoking habits and diabetes. Weak associations of long-term coronary mortality with the dietary intake patterns of fatty acids, as reported at baseline, were probably fully mediated by the effect of the diet on serum cholesterol. Religious orthodoxy appeared to provide a degree of immunity, part of which was independent of life-style correlates. A number of now well-established associations in cardiovascular epidemiology were first demonstrated, or amplified, in the study. Patterns of ethnic diversity in the risk factor and prevalence rates of CHD persisted, as viewed from the angle of mortality rates, over nearly a quarter of a decade, highlighting the enigma of a migrant country as a cardiovascular melting pot.

Cholesterol and coronary heart disease mortality. A 23-year follow-up study of 9902 men in Israel.

A 23-year follow-up study of 10,059 40- to 65-year-old participants in the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease Study found that of 3473 deaths (34.5%), in 1098 (10.9%) coronary heart disease (CHD) was the underlying cause. Total serum cholesterol (TC) was measured in 9902 individuals. During the study, CHD mortality was elevated primarily in individuals in quintiles 4 and 5 (TC levels greater than or equal to 217 mg/dl). Although CHD mortality increased marginally with increasing TC at levels below 217 mg/dl, this was entirely explained by age and other correlated risk factors in a multivariate adjustment of the survival curves. The "net" 23-year survival in terms of CHD was 87% in quintile 5 (TC greater than 241) versus 93% in quintile 1 (TC less than 176 mg/dl). CHD mortality was inversely related to the percent of cholesterol in high density lipoprotein (PHDL). All-cause mortality increased only when TC was above 240 mg/dl and in the subjects with PHDL levels in the lowest 20%. Lipids appeared to be somewhat less effective in predicting subsequent CHD mortality than did hypertension and smoking and were clearly secondary in assessing risk of all-cause death. The results raise the question whether intensive treatment for hypercholesterolemia is indicated for men at "borderline" levels. We conclude that the association between serum cholesterol and long-term mortality partly reflects the role that levels of co-existing CHD risk factors play in prognosis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A SAS program for evaluating person-years of risk in cohort studies.

A SAS macro, written to evaluate person-years of exposure in longitudinal studies, is presented in this paper. The program has the advantage of stratification by age groups and chronological subperiods, a feature recommended in long-term studies, involving temporal changes in patterns of outcome. The program creates a data set that can be utilized to calculate age-adjusted incidence rates in categories of risk factors for morbidity and mortality.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol: correlation with biochemical, anthropometric, behavioral, and clinical parameters in 6,500 Israeli men.

Correlations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), expressed in either absolute or relative terms, with a series of coronary risk factors and other variables were examined in the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease Study sample. The Quetelet overweight index showed the highest correlations with HDL-C (r = -0.21) as well as with HDL-C as a percentage of total cholesterol (TC) (HDL/TC; r = -0.28). Additional negative inverse associations were statistically different from zero but small. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol and HDL/TC were significantly reduced in cigarette smokers, and HDL/TC was significantly reduced in men with myocardial infarction or angina pectoris and (albeit marginally) in diabetes mellitus as well. The presence of these diseases correlated poorly with HDL-C (absolute values). The associations of HDL-C and HDL/TC with the Quetelet index persisted after adjustment for cigarette smoking and vice versa. Reported dietary intake failed to explain HDL-C or HDL/TC variability among individuals. The "net" relationship of HDL-C to several variables was examined in a multiple regression analysis. The Quetelet index accounted for 0.21 of a multiple correlation coefficient of 0.28 (i.e., a very small proportion of explained variability). This magnitude is of an order similar to multiple correlations found in our study for total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and serum uric acid. It indicates that our knowledge of the determinants of HDL-C in adults is insufficient. The possible roles of several anthropometric and behavioral variables in determining HDL-C levels are considered, as is the possible genetic factor in dictating interindividual HDL-C variability.

Elevated systolic blood pressure as a predictor of long-term cancer mortality: analysis by site and histologic subtype in 10,000 middle-aged and elderly men.

The association of a casual reading of blood pressure (BP) in 1963 to subsequent 15-year cancer mortality was examined in a cohort of 10,059 middle-aged and elderly men. Systolic BP (SBP), but not diastolic BP, predicted significantly long-term cancer mortality occurring in 369 subjects. The covariate-adjusted relative risk (RR) estimated by Cox's proportional hazard model was 1.10 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00-1.21]. In patients aged less than 60 at the beginning of the study, increased cancer mortality was mainly observed in association with SBP of more than 150 mm Hg. In subjects aged 60 or above, the estimated RR was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.03-1.42). Exclusion of 40 men in whom diagnosis made prior to 1963 or death occurred through 1965 did not alter the results. An excess mortality in men who reported pharmacologic treatment for hypertension while under follow-up was fully accountable by their age, BP, and smoking habits. Analysis by site suggested that the association was mainly due to increased mortality from cancer of the digestive and genitourinary organs (estimated RR's, respectively, 1.20 and 1.26; 95% CI's, respectively, 1.03-1.39 and 0.99-1.59). Analysis by histologic subtype suggests an association with adenocarcinoma (RR = 1.19, 95% CI, 1.04-1.37) but not squamous cell or transitional cell carcinomas, myeloma, lymphomas, and leukemias.

Prevalence and 15-year incidence of retinopathy and associated characteristics in middle-aged and elderly diabetic men.

We examined 178 men for the presence of diabetic retinopathy during 1978-80. They had been part of a group of 205 men from the Jerusalem area, diagnosed as being diabetic or having an abnormal glucose tolerance test in the Israel Ischaemic Heart Disease Project, a 5-year epidemiological investigation of Israeli male government employees. Seventy-four (42%) had diabetic retinopathy as determined by direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy, 3-mirror contact lens examination, and fundus photography. Those with and without retinopathy were compared for clinical, biochemical, behavioural, and biographical variables measured subsequently in 1963, 1965, and 1968. We found no significant differences between the 2 groups with respect to antecedent Quetelet index, blood pressure, peripheral vascular disease, blood lipids, haematocrits, smoking habits, area of birth, and education. Statistically significant differences between men with and without retinopathy were found for severity of carbohydrate metabolic intolerance at identification, duration of the metabolic abnormality, age, casual glucose values, and serum uric acid levels. Low serum uric acid appears to precede the incidence of diabetic retinopathy and to decline further as the disease progresses.

Hypertension in middle-aged men. Associated factors and mortality experience.

Seven hundred and seventeen hypertensive middle-aged men (HTs) were compared with 4,438 normotensive men (NTs). The association between the prevalence of hypertension and a number of demographic, physical, biochemical and electrocardiographic characteristics was examined by multiple logistic analysis. HTs were characterized by significant elevations of pulse rate, relative weight, serum uric acid, and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. HTs had a higher percent of major electrocardiographic findings, such as ischemic T wave changes, ST depression and, most significantly, left-ventricular hypertrophy. They were 4.7 yr older than the NTs and were more often of Central European than of Middle Eastern descent. Mortality in HTs over a 4.5-yr period was dose-response related to casual systolic and diastolic blood pressure readings at baseline. The age-adjusted HT/NT mortality ratio was approximately 2.5:1. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease accounted for 69% of the total mortality among HTs as compared with 48% among NTs. The estimated mortality fraction attributable to hypertension was 23%. This figure provides an estimate for the goal of hypertension control in the community.

Associations of serum high density lipoprotein and total cholesterol with total, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality in a 7-year prospective study of 10 000 men.

10 059 civil servants and municipal employees, aged 40--65, were examined in the Israeli Ischaemic Heart Disease Study. 475 (4.72%) died during a 7-year follow-up. High density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels were determined in the last 6562 men entering the study. 305 (4.65%) of these men died. Coronary heart disease (CHD) accounted for 37% of the total deaths. A "J" shaped relation which persisted after removing data on early mortality (first 2 years) was observed between total cholesterol and total mortality. An inverse relation was observed between HDL cholesterol and total mortality. Multivariate analysis of the data to adjust for possible confounding effects of additional mortality risk factors demonstrated that total cholesterol made no independent contribution to total mortality, but that the contribution of low HDL to mortality persisted after adjustment. CHD mortality consistently increased with rising concentrations of total cholesterol. CHD mortality rates decreased markedly with increasing HDL cholesterol concentrations. After adjustment for age and other risk factors the relation of coronary mortality to HDL cholesterol emerged as the dominant one. There was no clear-cut association between total of HDL cholesterol and cancer mortality. These results indicate that, particularly in older age-groups, measures designed to increase HDL cholesterol may prove as valuable in preventing CHD as those designed to reduce low density lipoprotein cholesterol.