Recent innovations in long-term care coverage and financing: a rapid scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: To identify, chart and analyse the literature on recent initiatives to improve long-term care (LTC) coverage, financial protection and financial sustainability for persons aged 60 and older. DESIGN: Rapid scoping review. DATA SOURCES: Four databases and four sources of grey literature were searched for reports published between 2017 and 2022. After using a supervised machine learning tool to rank titles and abstracts, two reviewers independently screened sources against inclusion criteria. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies published from 2017-2022 in any language that captured recent LTC initiatives for people aged 60 and older, involved evaluation and directly addressed financing were included. DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted using a form designed to answer the review questions and analysed using descriptive qualitative content analysis, with data categorised according to a prespecified framework to capture the outcomes of interest. RESULTS: Of 24 reports, 22 were published in peer-reviewed journals, and two were grey literature sources. Study designs included quasi-experimental study, policy analysis or comparison, qualitative description, comparative case study, cross-sectional study, systematic literature review, economic evaluation and survey. Studies addressed coverage based on the level of disability, income, rural/urban residence, employment and citizenship. Studies also addressed financial protection, including out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures, copayments and risk of poverty related to costs of care. The reports addressed challenges to financial sustainability such as lack of service coordination and system integration, insufficient economic development and inadequate funding models. CONCLUSIONS: Initiatives where LTC insurance is mandatory and accompanied by commensurate funding are situated to facilitate ageing in place. Efforts to expand population coverage are common across the initiatives, with the potential for wider economic benefits. Initiatives that enable older people to access the services needed while avoiding OOP-induced poverty contribute to improved health and well-being. Preserving health in older people longer may alleviate downstream costs and contribute to financial sustainability.

Effectiveness of community mobilisation and group-based interventions for preventing intimate partner violence against women in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a challenge affecting one in three women in their lifetime, and gender-transformative interventions have been identified as a promising prevention strategy. We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of community-level or group-based interventions to prevent IPV in lower- and middle-income countries, seeking to answer the following research question: do community- or group-based gender-transformative interventions reduce IPV, compared to a control arm of status-quo programming? Methods: We conducted a systematic search from the inception of all databases employed until 20 July 2021. Eligible study outcomes included past-year experience of physical, sexual, emotional or economic IPV self-reported by women and perpetration of physical or sexual IPV self-reported by men. We assessed study risk of bias using the updated Cochrane tool for RCTs. We estimated the pooled odds ratio (OR) using a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis and also conducted a multilevel meta-regression to analyse how study characteristics moderated the effect size. Results: After screening 7363 unique records, we included 30 studies on 27 unique RCTs. Our meta-analysis suggested that community-level or group-based interventions reduced the odds of women experiencing IPV in the past year: pooled adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63-0.97. While there was significant heterogeneity in the effect sizes between trials (I2 = 83%), potentially reflecting the diverse contexts of the included trials, our meta-regression did not indicate a significant association between intervention effectiveness and intervention type or target population. There was evidence of significant associations between effectiveness and intervention components and duration. Discussion: There is strong evidence that community-level and group-based interventions reduce IPV against women. Unpacking what intervention modalities are effective in which contexts can further inform prevention strategies. Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42021290193).

Syndemic Factors and Lifetime Bidirectional Intimate Partner Violence Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Sexual Minority Men.

Purpose: Bidirectional intimate partner violence (IPV), the reporting of both IPV victimization and perpetration, is likely the most common form of violence among gay, bisexual, and other sexual minority men (GBM) and is thought to be part of a larger syndemic of stressors. This purpose of this study was to examine associations between syndemic factors and lifetime bidirectional IPV among GBM in three Canadian cities to inform future interventions. Methods: Data from GBM (N = 2449) were used to fit three logistic regression models with lifetime bidirectional IPV as the outcome and four syndemic factors (i.e., depressive symptomatology, childhood sexual abuse [CSA], illegal drug use, and alcohol misuse) as independent variables. Model 1 examined syndemic factors individually. Model 2 employed a summative scale of syndemic exposure. Model 3 used marginal analysis to examine the relative excess risk of each potential iteration of the syndemic. Results: Thirty-one percent (N = 762) of respondents reported lifetime bidirectional IPV. Each of the syndemic factors were significantly associated with greater odds of reporting bidirectional IPV (Model 1). Model 2 exhibited a dose-response relationship between the number of syndemic factors reported and bidirectional IPV. Model 3 suggested that the specific combination of depressive symptomatology, CSA, and alcohol misuse resulted in the highest risk of lifetime bidirectional IPV. Conclusion: Bidirectional IPV was common in this sample and was associated with a complex interplay of stressors. However, there may be opportunities to target interventions to the specific syndemic issues in an effort to prevent and mitigate this form of IPV in GBM.

Intimate Partner Violence Among International and Interprovincial Migrants: A Population-Based Analysis of Canadian Linked Immigration and Justice Data.

Factors associated with IPV among immigrant women are not well understood. Using linked immigration and justice data, we compared the incidence of justice-identified IPV (JIIPV) among 58,564 international immigrant women born outside of Canada, 30,098 women born in other Canadian provinces (i.e., interprovincial migrants), and 88,662 long-term Manitoban resident women. International immigrant women had the lowest incidence of JIIPV compared to matched long-term Manitobans (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.49, 95% CI: 0.43-0.56) and interprovincial migrants (aHR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.43-0.73). Among immigrants, JIIPV varied substantially according to birthplace, increased with length of residence, and was less frequent among secondary immigrants.

Gender and Stand Your Ground Laws: A Critical Appraisal of Existing Research.

This paper evaluates the existing research on Stand Your Ground (SYG) laws in terms of the extent to which it has accounted for gender. In particular, we address (a) what the available evidence suggests are the gender-based impacts of SYG laws and (b) where, how, and why considerations of gender may be missing in available studies.

Recommendations for Canada's National Action Plan to End Gender-Based Violence: perspectives from leaders, service providers and survivors in Canada's largest city during the COVID-19 pandemic. / Recommandations pour le Plan d'action national pour mettre fin à la violence fondée sur le genre : points de vue de dirigeants, de fournisseurs de services et de survivantes dans la plus grande ville du Canada pendant la pandémie de COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: The Canadian government has committed to a national action plan (NAP) to address violence against women (VAW). However, a formalized plan for implementation has not been published. Building on existing recommendations and consultations, we conducted the first formal and peer-reviewed qualitative analysis of the perspectives of leaders, service providers and survivors on what should be considered in Canada's NAP on VAW. METHODS: We applied thematic analysis to qualitative data from 18 staff working on VAW services (11 direct support, 7 in leadership roles) and 10 VAW survivor participants of a community-based study on VAW programming during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area (Ontario, Canada). RESULTS: We generated 12 recommendations for Canada's NAP on VAW, which we organized into four thematic areas: (1) invest into VAW services and crisis supports (e.g. strengthen referral mechanisms to VAW programming); (2) enhance structural supports (e.g. invest in the full housing continuum for VAW survivors); (3) develop coordinated systems (e.g. strengthen collaboration between health and VAW systems); and (4) implement and evaluate primary prevention strategies (e.g. conduct a gender-based and intersectional analysis of existing social and public policies). CONCLUSION: In this study, we developed, prioritized and nuanced recommendations for Canada's proposed NAP on VAW based on a rigorous analysis of the perspectives of VAW survivors and staff in Canada's largest city during the COVID-19 pandemic. An effective NAP will require investment in direct support organizations; equitable housing and other structural supports; strategic coordination of health, justice and social care systems; and primary prevention strategies, including gender transformative policy reform.

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Education Outcomes among Adolescents: Linking Survey and Administrative Data.

It is well established that adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with detrimental health outcomes in adulthood. Less is known about the relationships between ACEs and education outcomes and among adolescents. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between ACEs and adolescents' self-reported education outcomes and provincial education assessments among adolescents in Manitoba, Canada. Data were gathered from 1002 adolescents who participated in the Well-Being and Experiences (WE) Study. A subsample of the adolescents (84%) consented to having their WE survey data linked to administrative education databases. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were computed to examine associations between ACE history and self-reported education outcomes and provincial education assessments, adjusting for sociodemographic variables. Adolescents with an ACE history had significantly increased likelihood of having ever been suspended from school (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 3.33, 95% CI 1.60-6.92), of lower grades (adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) = 3.21, 95% CI 1.42-7.29), and of chronic school absenteeism (aRRR = 2.45, 95% CI 1.28-4.68) compared with adolescents without an ACE history after adjusting for sociodemographic variables. Findings from this study illuminate the important relationship between childhood adversity and poor education outcomes assessed directly by adolescents. Increasing awareness of the public health risk associated with ACEs and education outcomes may inform education policy and school-based interventions.

Risk and Protective Factors for Men's Sexual Violence Against Women at Higher Education Institutions: A Systematic and Meta-Analytic Review of the Longitudinal Evidence.

Sexual violence among higher education institution (HEI) students is a growing public health concern. To date, there is little evidence on how to effectively prevent sexual violence among this demographic. This study is the first systematic review to meta-analyze all available evidence for risk and protective factors of sexual violence perpetrated by men at HEIs. We searched four electronic databases and multiple gray literature sources. We screened studies using prespecified selection criteria for the sample (HEI students who identify as men), outcome (sexual violence perpetration against peers), and study design (quantitative and longitudinal). Longitudinal studies provide the most rigorous available evidence on risk and protective factors. We identified 16 studies and meta-analyzed eight different risk factors: alcohol consumption, hostility toward women, delinquency, fraternity membership, history of sexual violence perpetration, rape myth acceptance, age at first sex, and peer approval of sexual violence. We deemed included studies to have a varied risk of bias and the overall quality of evidence to range from moderate to high. History of sexual violence perpetration (perpetration prior to entering an HEI) emerged as the strongest predictor of sexual violence perpetration at HEIs, complicating the notion that HEI environments themselves foster a culture of sexual violence. Peer support for sexual violence predicted perpetration while individual rape-supporting beliefs did not. Our findings suggest that interventions targeting peer norms (e.g., bystander interventions) and early sexual violence prevention and consent interventions for high school and elementary school students could be effective in reducing and preventing sexual violence at HEIs.

Trajectories of Exposure to Neighborhood Deprivation and the Odds of Experiencing Intimate Partner Violence Among Women: Are There Sensitive Periods for Exposure?

Neighborhood disadvantage is commonly hypothesized to be positively associated with intimate partner violence (IPV) against women. However, longitudinal investigation of this association has been limited, with no studies on whether the timing of exposure matters. We used data from 2,115 women in the UK-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Exposure to neighborhood-level deprivation was measured at 10-time points from baseline (gestation) until age 18. Family-level socioeconomic characteristics were measured at baseline. At age 21, participants self-reported whether they had experienced any IPV since age 18. We used a three-step bias-adjusted longitudinal latent class analysis to investigate how different patterns of neighborhood deprivation exposure were associated with the odds of experiencing IPV. A total of 32% of women experienced any IPV between ages 18 and 21. Women who consistently lived in deprived neighborhoods (chronic high deprivation) or spent their early childhoods in more deprived neighborhoods and later moved to less deprived neighborhoods (decreasing deprivation) had higher odds of experiencing IPV compared to those who consistently lived in non-deprived neighborhoods. The odds of experiencing IPV did not consistently differ between women who lived in non-deprived neighborhoods during early childhood and later moved to deprived neighborhoods (increasing deprivation) and those stably in non-deprived neighborhoods. Living in more deprived neighborhoods during early childhood, regardless of later exposure, was associated with higher odds of experiencing later IPV. This is congruent with prior research demonstrating the persistent effects of early neighborhood disadvantage on health and well-being. Replication, and underlying mechanisms, should be assessed across contexts.

Preventing Gender-Based Homelessness in Canada During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond: The Need to Account for Violence Against Women.

The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to increases in intimate partner violence (IPV), a leading cause of women's homelessness. Although the Canadian Government provided emergency funding to the violence against women and housing and homelessness sectors in response to COVID-19, Canada lacks a national legislative and funding framework to support coordinated prevention efforts. We review the context of IPV and homelessness among women and international policy exemplars. We then propose several starting points for developing a Canadian strategic framework, including adopting inclusive definitions of IPV and homelessness as well as evaluating a broad continuum of IPV-housing options and intersectoral partnership models.

Measuring the Burden of Intimate Partner Violence by Sex and Sexual Identity: Results From a Random Sample in Toronto, Canada.

Debates on how sex, gender, and sexual identity relate to intimate partner violence (IPV) are longstanding. Yet the role that measurement plays in how we understand the distribution of IPV has been understudied. We investigated whether people respond differently to IPV items by sex and sexual identity and the implications this has for understanding differences in IPV burdens. Our sample was 2,412 randomly selected residents of Toronto, Canada, from the Neighborhood Effects on Health and Well-being (NEHW) study. IPV was measured using short forms of the Physical and Nonphysical Partner Abuse Scales (20 items). We evaluated the psychometric properties of this measure by sex and sexual identity. We examined whether experiences of IPV differed by sex and sexual identity (accounting for age and neighborhood clustering) and the impacts of accounting for latent structure and measurement variance. We identified differential item functioning by sex for six items, mostly related to nonphysical IPV (e.g., partner jealousy). Males had higher probabilities of reporting five of the six items compared to females with the same latent IPV scores. Being female and identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual were positively associated with experiencing IPV. However, the association between female sex and IPV was underestimated when response bias was not accounted for and outcomes were dichotomized as "any IPV." Common practices of assuming measurement invariance and dichotomizing IPV can underestimate the association between sex or gender and IPV. Researchers should continue to attend to gender-based and intersectional differences in IPV but test for measurement invariance prior to comparing groups and analyze scale (as opposed to binary) measures to account for chronicity or intensity.

Housing interventions for women experiencing intimate partner violence: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is the leading cause of women's homelessness. However, what works best to respond to the needs of women experiencing IPV and homelessness remains unclear. We aimed to systematically review the effects of housing interventions on the physical, psychosocial, and economic wellbeing of women experiencing IPV. METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched 15 electronic databases and conducted an extensive grey literature and hand reference search between Jan 29, 2020, and May 31, 2021. We included controlled quantitative studies of housing interventions (from emergency shelter to permanent supportive housing) that were reported in English, without time restrictions, and examined any physical, psychosocial, or economic outcomes among women experiencing IPV. We critically appraised included studies using the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care criteria and extracted data using a piloted extraction form. We synthesised our results using harvest plots to summarise whether the weight of the evidence suggested benefits, disadvantages, or null effects; patterns by study quality; and evidence gaps. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020176705. FINDINGS: We screened 23 902 unique records and identified 34 eligible studies with quantitative data on the outcomes of housing interventions among women experiencing IPV. Most studies evaluated the outcomes of either shelter interventions (18 studies [53%]) or shelter plus some other programming (eight [24%]). The remaining eight studies evaluated longer-term housing solutions, including supportive housing (five studies [15%]), critical time interventions (one [3%]), transitional housing (one [3%]), and stay-at-home models (one [3%]). There was no cumulative evidence of disadvantages following any IPV-housing intervention. Evidence of benefits was strongest for mental health outcomes, intent to leave partner, perceived safety, and housing and partner-related stress. Included studies were at high risk of bias across most domains (eg, confounding). INTERPRETATION: There is promising evidence on the continuum of IPV-housing services for women, especially in terms of proximal outcomes, such as mental health, intent to leave partner, safety, and housing stress. However, more research of higher quality is needed, particularly on long-term housing solutions and from outside of the USA. FUNDING: The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (430-2021-01176) and Canadian Institutes of Health Research (HSI-166388).

Effectiveness of cash-plus programmes on early childhood outcomes compared to cash transfers alone: A systematic review and meta-analysis in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: To strengthen the impact of cash transfers, these interventions have begun to be packaged as cash-plus programmes, combining cash with additional transfers, interventions, or services. The intervention's complementary ("plus") components aim to improve cash transfer effectiveness by targeting mediating outcomes or the availability of supplies or services. This study examined whether cash-plus interventions for infants and children <5 are more effective than cash alone in improving health and well-being. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Forty-two databases, donor agencies, grey literature sources, and trial registries were systematically searched, yielding 5,097 unique articles (as of 06 April 2021). Randomised and quasi-experimental studies were eligible for inclusion if the intervention package aimed to improve outcomes for children <5 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and combined a cash transfer with an intervention targeted to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (No Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG4 (Education), or SDG16 (Violence Prevention), had at least one group receiving cash-only, examined outcomes related to child-focused SDGs, and was published in English. Risk of bias was appraised using Cochrane Risk of Bias and ROBINS-I Tools. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted for a cash-plus intervention category when there were at least 3 trials with the same outcome. The review was preregistered with PROSPERO (CRD42018108017). Seventeen studies were included in the review and 11 meta-analysed. Most interventions operated during the first 1,000 days of the child's life and were conducted in communities facing high rates of poverty and often, food insecurity. Evidence was found for 10 LMICs, where most researchers used randomised, longitudinal study designs (n = 14). Five intervention categories were identified, combining cash with nutrition behaviour change communication (BCC, n = 7), food transfers (n = 3), primary healthcare (n = 2), psychosocial stimulation (n = 7), and child protection (n = 4) interventions. Comparing cash-plus to cash alone, meta-analysis results suggest Cash + Food Transfers are more effective in improving height-for-age (d = 0.08 SD (0.03, 0.14), p = 0.02) with significantly reduced odds of stunting (OR = 0.82 (0.74, 0.92), p = 0.01), but had no added impact in improving weight-for-height (d = -0.13 (-0.42, 0.16), p = 0.24) or weight-for-age z-scores (d = -0.06 (-0.28, 0.15), p = 0.43). There was no added impact above cash alone from Cash + Nutrition BCC on anthropometrics; Cash + Psychosocial Stimulation on cognitive development; or Cash + Child Protection on parental use of violent discipline or exclusive positive parenting. Narrative synthesis evidence suggests that compared to cash alone, Cash + Primary Healthcare may have greater impacts in reducing mortality and Cash + Food Transfers in preventing acute malnutrition in crisis contexts. The main limitations of this review are the few numbers of studies that compared cash-plus interventions against cash alone and the potentially high heterogeneity between study findings. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that few cash-plus combinations were more effective than cash transfers alone. Cash combined with food transfers and primary healthcare show the greatest signs of added effectiveness. More research is needed on when and how cash-plus combinations are more effective than cash alone, and work in this field must ensure that these interventions improve outcomes among the most vulnerable children.

Response strategies for promoting gender equality in public health emergencies: a rapid scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic threatens to widen existing gender inequities worldwide. A growing body of literature assesses the harmful consequences of public health emergencies (PHEs) for women and girls; however, evidence of what works to alleviate such impacts is limited. To inform viable mitigation strategies, we reviewed the evidence on gender-based interventions implemented in PHEs, including disease outbreaks and natural disasters. METHODS: We conducted a rapid scoping review to identify eligible studies by systematically searching the databases MEDLINE, Global Health and Web of Science with the latest search update on 28 May 2021. We used the Sustainable Development Goals as a guiding framework to identify eligible outcomes of gender (in)equality. RESULTS: Out of 13 920 records, 16 studies met our eligibility criteria. These included experimental (3), cohort (2), case-control (3) and cross-sectional (9) studies conducted in the context of natural disasters (earthquakes, droughts and storms) or epidemics (Zika, Ebola and COVID-19). Six studies were implemented in Asia, seven in North/Central America and three in Africa. Interventions included economic empowerment programmes (5); health promotion, largely focused on reproductive health (10); and a postearthquake resettlement programme (1). Included studies assessed gender-based outcomes in the domains of sexual and reproductive health, equal opportunities, access to economic resources, violence and health. There was a dearth of evidence for other outcome domains relevant to gender equity such as harmful practices, sanitation and hygiene practices, workplace discrimination and unpaid work. Economic empowerment interventions showed promise in promoting women's and girls' economic and educational opportunities as well as their sexual and reproductive health during PHEs. However, some programme beneficiaries may be at risk of experiencing unintended harms such as an increase in domestic violence. Focused reproductive health promotion may also be an effective strategy for supporting women's sexual and reproductive health, although additional experimental evidence is needed. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified critical evidence gaps to guide future research on approaches to alleviating gender inequities during PHEs. We further highlight that interventions to promote gender equity in PHEs should take into account possible harmful side effects such as increased gender-based violence. REVIEW REGISTRATION: DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/8HKFD.

Effects of Laws Expanding Civilian Rights to Use Deadly Force in Self-Defense on Violence and Crime: A Systematic Review.

Background. Since 2005, most US states have expanded civilian rights to use deadly force in self-defense outside the home. In most cases, legislation has included removing the duty to retreat anywhere one may legally be, commonly known as stand-your-ground laws. The extent to which these laws affect public health and safety is widely debated in public and policy discourse.Objectives. To synthesize the available evidence on the impacts and social inequities associated with changing civilian rights to use deadly force in self-defense on violence, injury, crime, and firearm-related outcomes.Search Methods. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science, Sociological Abstracts, National Criminal Justice Reference Service Abstracts, Education Resources Information Center, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, Google Scholar, National Bureau of Economic Research working papers, and SocArXiv; harvested references of included studies; and consulted with experts to identify studies until April 2020.Selection Criteria. Eligible studies quantitatively estimated the association between laws that expanded or restricted the right to use deadly force in self-defense and population or subgroup outcomes among civilians with a comparator.Data Collection and Analysis. Two reviewers extracted study data using a common form. We assessed study quality using the Risk of Bias in Nonrandomized Studies of Interventions tools adapted for (controlled) before-after studies. To account for data dependencies, we conducted graphical syntheses (forest plots and harvest plots) to summarize the evidence on impacts and inequities associated with changing self-defense laws.Main Results. We identified 25 studies that estimated population-level impacts of laws expanding civilian rights to use deadly force in self-defense, all of which focused on stand-your-ground or other expansions to self-defense laws in the United States. Studies were scored as having serious or critical risk of bias attributable to confounding. Risk of bias was low across most other domains (i.e., selection, missing data, outcome, and reporting biases). Stand-your-ground laws were associated with no change to small increases in violent crime (total and firearm homicide, aggravated assault, robbery) on average across states. Florida-based studies showed robust increases (24% to 45%) in firearm and total homicide while self-defense claims under stand-your-ground law were more often denied when victims were White, especially when claimants were racial minorities.Author's Conclusions. The existing evidence contradicts claims that expanding self-defense laws deters violent crime across the United States. In at least some contexts, including Florida, stand-your-ground laws are associated with increases in violence, and there are racial inequities in the application of these laws.Public Health Implications. In some US states, most notably Florida, stand-your-ground laws may have harmed public health and safety and exacerbated social inequities. Our findings highlight the need for scientific evidence on both population and equity impacts of self-defense laws to guide legislative action that promotes public health and safety for all.Trial Registration. Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/uz68e).

Can synthetic controls improve causal inference in interrupted time series evaluations of public health interventions?

Interrupted time series designs are a valuable quasi-experimental approach for evaluating public health interventions. Interrupted time series extends a single group pre-post comparison by using multiple time points to control for underlying trends. But history bias-confounding by unexpected events occurring at the same time of the intervention-threatens the validity of this design and limits causal inference. Synthetic control methodology, a popular data-driven technique for deriving a control series from a pool of unexposed populations, is increasingly recommended. In this paper, we evaluate if and when synthetic controls can strengthen an interrupted time series design. First, we summarize the main observational study designs used in evaluative research, highlighting their respective uses, strengths, biases and design extensions for addressing these biases. Second, we outline when the use of synthetic controls can strengthen interrupted time series studies and when their combined use may be problematic. Third, we provide recommendations for using synthetic controls in interrupted time series and, using a real-world example, we illustrate the potential pitfalls of using a data-driven approach to identify a suitable control series. Finally, we emphasize the importance of theoretical approaches for informing study design and argue that synthetic control methods are not always well suited for generating a counterfactual that minimizes critical threats to interrupted time series studies. Advances in synthetic control methods bring new opportunities to conduct rigorous research in evaluating public health interventions. However, incorporating synthetic controls in interrupted time series studies may not always nullify important threats to validity nor improve causal inference.

Depressive symptoms among children attending community based support in South Africa - pathways for disrupting risk factors.

Children in Southern Africa are exposed to high rates of structural and family adversities. This study tests whether services from Community Based Organisations (CBOs) in South Africa can promote children's resilience against depression exposed to such adversities. Two linked longitudinal studies were conducted, comprising n = 1848 children aged 9 to 13 years. One group received CBO services, whilst the other (quasi-control) did not. Analyses used interaction terms in regression models to test for potential moderation effects of CBO attendance, and marginal effects models to interpret significant interactions. Two interaction effects were shown, demonstrating moderation effects of CBO attendance on common structural disadvantages. First, children exposed to community violence showed increased depression (contrast = 0.62 [95%CI 0.43, 0.82], p < .001), but this association was removed by CBO access (contrast = 0.07 [95%CI -0.28, 0.43], p = .682). Second, children living in informal housing showed increased depression (contrast = 0.63 [95%CI 0.42, 0.85], p < .001), however, this association was removed by CBO access (contrast = 0.01 [95%CI -0.55, 0.56], p = .977). CBO attendance is associated with fewer depressive symptoms, and can buffer against important structural adversities of poor housing and violence that are common in high HIV-prevalence areas. However, CBO attendance was not able to remove the increased psychosocial distress associated with some family-level vulnerabilities such as orphanhood and abuse. These findings highlight the centrality of CBO-provided psychosocial support for children in Southern Africa, and suggest areas for bolstering provision.

How do perceived and objective measures of neighbourhood disadvantage vary over time? Results from a prospective-longitudinal study in the UK with implications for longitudinal research on neighbourhood effects on health.

BACKGROUND: Theories of health outcomes often hypothesize that living in more socially and economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods will lead to worse health. Multiple measures of neighbourhood disadvantage are available to researchers, which may serve as better or worse proxies for each other across time. To inform longitudinal study design and interpretation we investigated how perceived and objective measures of neighbourhood disadvantage vary over time and the factors underlying this variation. METHODS: Data were from 8,918 mothers with at least three time-points of neighbourhood data in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children in the UK. We analyzed measures of objective (Indices of Multiple Deprivation) and perceived (neighbourhood quality, social cohesion, and stress) exposure to neighbourhood disadvantage at 10 time-points over 18 years. We used group-based trajectory modelling to determine the overlap in participants' trajectories on the different measures and evaluated the baseline factors associated with different perceived trajectories over time. RESULTS: There was evidence of heterogeneity in both perceived and objective measures of neighbourhood disadvantage over time (e.g., on the objective measure, 5% of participants moved to more deprived neighbourhoods, 11% moved to less deprived neighbourhoods, 20% consistently lived in deprived neighbourhoods, and 64% consistently lived in non-deprived neighbourhoods). Perceived social cohesion showed the weakest relationship with exposure to objective neighbourhood deprivation: most participants in each trajectory group of objective neighbourhood deprivation followed non-corresponding trajectories of perceived social cohesion (61-80%). Accounting for objective deprivation exposure, poorer socioeconomic and psychosocial indicators at baseline were associated with following more negative perceived neighbourhood trajectories (e.g., high neighbourhood stress) over time. CONCLUSION: Trajectories of perceived and objective measures of neighbourhood disadvantage varied over time, with the extent of variation depending on the time point of measurement and individual-level social factors. Researchers should be mindful of this variation when choosing and determining the timing of measures of neighbourhood disadvantage in longitudinal studies and when inferring effect mechanisms.

Long-term Exposure to Neighborhood Deprivation and Intimate Partner Violence Among Women: A UK Birth Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence is the most common form of violence perpetrated against women. To our knowledge, the effect of neighborhood disadvantage on intimate partner violence against women has never been investigated prospectively outside the United States. METHODS: We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children in the United Kingdom, which followed our target sample, 7,219 women, from birth and their mothers (from pregnancy). At age 21, 2,128 participants self-reported the frequency of experiencing physical, psychological, or sexual intimate partner violence since age 18. Participants' exposure to neighborhood-level deprivation and family-level socioeconomic characteristics (e.g., income) were measured at 10 time points from baseline (gestation) until children were 18 years old. We estimated the effect of cumulative exposure to greater neighborhood-level deprivation on the risk of experiencing intimate partner violence using marginal structural models with stabilized inverse probability weights, accounting for time-varying confounding by socioeconomic indicators and sample attrition. RESULTS: A one-unit increase in cumulative exposure to more severe neighborhood deprivation was associated with a 62% increase in participants' frequency of experiencing intimate partner violence (95% confidence interval 11%, 237%) and 36% increase in their risk of experiencing any intimate partner violence (95% confidence interval 1%, 85%). CONCLUSIONS: In our study, cumulative exposure to greater neighborhood deprivation over the first 18 years of life was associated with women's increased risk of experiencing intimate partner violence in early adulthood. Future studies should test this association across contexts, including underlying mechanisms, and evaluate preventive strategies that target structural disparities.

Intimate partner violence victimisation in early adulthood: psychometric properties of a new measure and gender differences in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the psychometric properties of a novel, brief measure of physical, psychological and sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) and estimate the overall prevalence of and gender differences in this violence. DESIGN: Data are from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a birth-cohort study. SETTING: Avon, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 2128 women and 1145 men who completed the questionnaire assessment at age 21. OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants responded to eight items on physical, psychological and sexual IPV victimisation at age 21. Participants indicated whether the violence occurred before age 18 and/or after and led to any of eight negative impacts (eg, fear). We estimated the prevalence of IPV and tested for gender differences using χ2 or t-tests. We evaluated the IPV victimisation measure based on internal consistency (alpha coefficient), dimensionality (exploratory factor analysis) and convergent validity with negative impacts. RESULTS: Overall, 37% of participants reported experiencing any IPV and 29% experienced any IPV after age 18. Women experienced more frequent IPV, more acts of IPV and more negative impacts than men (p<0.001 for all comparisons). The IPV measure showed high internal consistency (α=0.95), strong evidence for unidimensionality and was highly correlated with negative impacts (r=0.579, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of IPV victimisation in the ALSPAC cohort was considerable for both women and men. The strong and consistent gender differences in the frequency and severity of IPV suggest clinically meaningful differences in experiences of this violence. The ALSPAC measure for IPV victimisation was valid and reliable, indicating its suitability for further aetiological investigations.