RESUMO
Objectives: To explore the risk factors for renal damage in childhood immunoglobulin A vasculitis (IgAV) within 6 months and construct a clinical model for individual risk prediction. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 1,007 children in our hospital and 287 children in other hospitals who were diagnosed with IgAV. Approximately 70% of the cases in our hospital were randomly selected using statistical product service soltions (SPSS) software for modeling. The remaining 30% of the cases were selected for internal verification, and the other hospital's cases were reviewed for external verification. A clinical prediction model for renal damage in children with IgAV was constructed by analyzing the modeling data through single-factor and multiple-factor logistic regression analyses. Then, we assessed and verified the degree of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness of the model. Finally, the prediction model was rendered in the form of a nomogram. Results: Age, persistent cutaneous purpura, erythrocyte distribution width, complement C3, immunoglobulin G and triglycerides were independent influencing factors of renal damage in IgAV. Based on these factors, the area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction model was 0.772; the calibration curve did not significantly deviate from the ideal curve; and the clinical decision curve was higher than two extreme lines when the prediction probability was ~15-82%. When the internal and external verification datasets were applied to the prediction model, the AUC was 0.729 and 0.750, respectively, and the Z test was compared with the modeling AUC, P > 0.05. The calibration curves fluctuated around the ideal curve, and the clinical decision curve was higher than two extreme lines when the prediction probability was 25~84% and 14~73%, respectively. Conclusion: The prediction model has a good degree of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. Either the internal or external verification has better clinical efficacy, indicating that the model has repeatability and portability. Clinical trial registration: www.chictr.org.cn, identifier ChiCTR2000033435.
RESUMO
Background: Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute systemic vasculitis of unknown etiology. The rs8108402 C/T single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is located in the promoter region of miR-181-c/d gene and the intron of Nanos3 gene. The miR-181 family contributes to the pathogenesis of cardiovascular and inflammatory disorders, while Nanos3 is involved in DNA transcription regulation and cell proliferation. However, no studies have examined the association between miR-181c/d and Nanos3 polymorphisms and the susceptibility and progression of KD. Objective: The purpose of our study is to examine the association of miR-181c/miR-181d/Nanos3 gene locus rs8108402 C/T polymorphism with KD susceptibility, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) responsiveness, and the development of coronary artery lesions (CAL). Methods: Peripheral blood specimens from 100 children with KD and 100 healthy children were collected. The polymorphism of rs8108402 C/T was detected using polymerase chain reaction-sequencing-based typing technique. Results: There were statistically significant differences in C and T allele frequency distributions between the KD group and healthy controls for the polymorphic site rs8108402 C/T (P = 0.002). The distribution of the genotypes CC, CT, and TT also presented statistical significant difference between the KD and control groups (P = 0.003). Compared to the rs8108402 C allele, the T allele was associated with increased KD susceptibility (OR = 2.080, 95% CI = 1.317â¼3.283). However, there were no significant associations discovered between the rs8108402 C/T polymorphism and CAL formation or IVIG unresponsiveness in the study. Conclusion: SNP rs8108402 C/T located in the miR-181c/d promoter and Nanos3 intronic region is associated with susceptibility to Kawasaki disease but not with the development of coronary artery lesions or IVIG unresponsiveness in Chinese children.
