Feeling at risk matters: water managers and the decision to use forecasts.

Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.

A greenhouse gas emissions inventory for Pennsylvania.

The Pennsylvania greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory presented in this paper provides detailed estimates of emissions and their sources for the six major categories of GHGs. The inventory was compiled using the current U.S. Environment Protection Agency methodology, which applies emissions factors to socioeconomic data, such as fossil energy use, vehicle miles traveled, and industrial production. The paper also contains an assessment of the methodology and suggestions for improving accounting with respect to process, sectoral, and geographic considerations. The study found that Pennsylvania emitted 77.4 million metric tons carbon equivalent of GHGs in 1990 and that this total increased by 3% to 79.8 million metric tons carbon equivalent by 1999. Despite this increase, however, the state's percentage contribution to the United States total declined during the decade. Pennsylvania's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels represented 92.4% of 1990 totals and declined to 90.5% in 1999. Electricity generation was the largest single source of CO2 emissions, being responsible for 38% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 1990 and 40% of the total in 1999. Transportation emissions accounted for the largest increases in emissions between 1990 and 1999, whereas industrial emissions accounted for the largest decrease. The overall trend indicates that Pennsylvania has been able to weaken the relationship between GHG emissions and economic growth.