An urgent need for COP27: confronting converging crises.

The last 12 months have provided further evidence of the potential for cascading ecological and socio-political crises that were warned of 12 months ago. Then a consensus statement from the Regional Action on Climate Change Symposium warned: "the Earth's climatic, ecological, and human systems are converging towards a crisis that threatens to engulf global civilization within the lifetimes of children now living." Since then, the consequences of a broad set of extreme climate events (notably droughts, floods, and fires) have been compounded by interaction with impacts from multiple pandemics (including COVID-19 and cholera) and the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, new connections are becoming visible between climate change and human health, large vulnerable populations are experiencing food crises, climate refugees are on the move, and the risks of water, food, and climate disruption have been visibly converging and compounding. Many vulnerable populations now face serious challenges to adapt. In light of these trends, this year, RACC identifies a range of measures to be taken at global and regional levels to bolster the resilience of these populations in the face of such emerging crises. In particular, at all scales, there is a need for globally available local data, reliable analytic techniques, community capacity to plan adaptation strategies, and the resources (scientific, technical, cultural, and economic) to implement them. To date, the rate of growth of the support for climate change resilience lags behind the rapid growth of cascading and converging risks. As an urgent message to COP27, it is proposed that the time is now right to devote much greater emphasis, global funding, and support to the increasing adaptation needs of vulnerable populations.

Beyond 2020: converging crises demand integrated responses: Statement by the RACC International Advisory Committee following the RACC-12 International Forum.

The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates how the impacts of climate change are beginning to converge with other developing challenges with a likely peak with global population, requiring more integrated responses locally, regionally and globally.

Recent trends in nitrogen flows with urbanization in the Shanghai megacity and the effects on the water environment.

The objectives of this study are to diagnose and prevent environmental problems that threaten urban sustainability, the impact of changes in lifestyle (diet, domestic sanitation, and motorization), and production style (agriculture, industry, and services) with the rapid urbanization on regional nitrogen (N) flows, and the water environment was quantitatively evaluated. The megacity Shanghai was chosen as a case study to investigate the temporal changes in nitrogen flow during 1980-2008 by a multidisciplinary approach (a field survey, a regional nitrogen mass balance model, input-output analysis, etc.). Although the total potential nitrogen load in Shanghai has decreased in the 2000s and water pollution problems seem to have improved, the problem has shifted and expanded to affect a wider area through the food/product chain and water/air movement. Further effective solutions that aim at material cycles are necessary and have to be implemented on a large scale.

Impact assessment of human diet changes with rapid urbanization on regional nitrogen and phosphorus flows--a case study of the megacity Shanghai.

Regional material flows are strongly influenced by human diets. To diagnose and prevent environmental problems that threaten urban sustainability, the impact of human diet changes with rapid urbanization on the regional nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows were quantitatively evaluated. A survey of day-to-day activities was conducted of 450 individuals surveyed (adults over 18 years old) in three representative areas (the central district, the new district, and the suburban/rural areas) of Shanghai, a megacity which has attracted worldwide attention. The lifestyle (eating habits, domestic sanitation, drainage facilities, etc.) pattern was determined and the potential N and P loads from human diets on the environment were calculated. The daily potential nitrogen and phosphorus loads from human diets was 19.36 g-N, 1.80 g-P in the central district, 16.48 g-N, 1.52 g-P in the new district, and 13.04 g-N, 1.20 g-P in the suburban/rural areas of Shanghai. Respondents in all three areas, especially those in the suburban/rural areas reported a preference for increasing the intake of animal-derived as well as processed foods, which means that the potential N and P load from human diets to the environment will increase further. In addition, most respondents consider industrial wastewater discharge as the main cause of eutrophication of waterbodies, though in recent years water pollution caused by domestic wastewater has increased rapidly, but this has received much less attention. Environment-friendly eating habits and improvements in the environmental awareness will be required.

Socioeconomic driving factors of nitrogen load from food consumption and preventive measures.

To diagnose environmental nitrogen (N) load from food consumption and to suggest preventive measures, this study identified relationships between nitrogen load from food consumption and driving factors by examining six representative countries and regions for the period 1970-2009 as an example. The logarithmic mean Divisia index technique was used to disassemble nitrogen load growth into four driving factors: population, economic activity, food intensity of the economy, and nitrogen content of food. In all study areas, increased economic activity was the main factor driving nitrogen load increase. The positive effect of population growth was relatively small but not negligible and changes in food intensity had a decreasing effect on nitrogen load. Changes in nitrogen content of food varied between areas. Broad strategies to reduce and mitigate nitrogen loading and decouple nitrogen load from economic growth in both developed and developing countries are suggested.

Recent trends of nitrogen flow of typical agro-ecosystems in China--major problems and potential solutions.

BACKGROUND: To diagnose problems that threaten regional sustainability and to devise appropriate treatment measures in China's agro-ecosystems, a study was carried out to quantify the nitrogen (N) flow in China's typical agro-ecosystems and develop potential solutions to the increasing environmental N load. RESULTS: The analysis showed that owing to human activity in the agro-ecosystems of Changjiang River Basin the mean total input of anthropogenic reactive N (i.e. chemical fertiliser, atmospheric deposition and bio-N fixation) increased from 4.41 × 10(9) kg-N in 1980 to 7.61 × 10(9) kg-N in 1990 and then to 1.43 × 10(10) kg-N in 2000, with chemical fertiliser N being the largest contributor to N load. Field investigation further showed that changes in human behaviour and rural urbanisation have caused rural communities to become more dependent on chemical fertilisers. In rural regions, around 4.17 kg-N of per capita annual potential N load as excrement was returned to farmlands and 1.38 kg-N directly discharged into river systems, while in urbanised regions, around 1.00 kg-N of per capita annual potential N load as excrement was returned to farmlands and 5.62 kg-N discharged into river systems in urban areas. CONCLUSION: The findings of the study suggest that human activities have significantly altered the N cycle in agro-ecosystems of China. With high population density and scarce per capita water resources, non-point source pollution from agro-ecosystems continues to put pressure on aquatic ecosystems. Increasing the rate of organic matter recycling and fertiliser efficiency with limited reliance on chemical fertilisers might yield tremendous environmental benefits.

Cesium-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils due to the Fukushima nuclear accident.

The largest concern on the cesium-137 ((137)Cs) deposition and its soil contamination due to the emission from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) showed up after a massive quake on March 11, 2011. Cesium-137 ((137)Cs) with a half-life of 30.1 y causes the largest concerns because of its deleterious effect on agriculture and stock farming, and, thus, human life for decades. Removal of (137)Cs contaminated soils or land use limitations in areas where removal is not possible is, therefore, an urgent issue. A challenge lies in the fact that estimates of (137)Cs emissions from the Fukushima NPP are extremely uncertain, therefore, the distribution of (137)Cs in the environment is poorly constrained. Here, we estimate total (137)Cs deposition by integrating daily observations of (137)Cs deposition in each prefecture in Japan with relative deposition distribution patterns from a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, FLEXPART. We show that (137)Cs strongly contaminated the soils in large areas of eastern and northeastern Japan, whereas western Japan was sheltered by mountain ranges. The soils around Fukushima NPP and neighboring prefectures have been extensively contaminated with depositions of more than 100,000 and 10,000 MBq km(-2), respectively. Total (137)Cs depositions over two domains: (i) the Japan Islands and the surrounding ocean (130-150 °E and 30-46 °N) and, (ii) the Japan Islands, were estimated to be approximately 6.7 and 1.3 PBq, [corrected] respectively.We hope our (137)Cs deposition maps will help to coordinate decontamination efforts and plan regulatory measures in Japan.

Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during 1700-1850 induced by preindustrial cultivation.

Preindustrial changes in the Asian summer monsoon climate from the 1700s to the 1850s were estimated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using historical global land cover/use change data reconstructed for the last 300 years. Extended cultivation resulted in a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southeastern China and an associated weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation. The precipitation decrease in India was marked and was consistent with the observational changes derived from examining the Himalayan ice cores for the concurrent period. Between the 1700s and the 1850s, the anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols were still minor; also, no long-term trends in natural climate variations, such as those caused by the ocean, solar activity, or volcanoes, were reported. Thus, we propose that the land cover/use change was the major source of disturbances to the climate during that period. This report will set forward quantitative examination of the actual impacts of land cover/use changes on Asian monsoons, relative to the impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols, viewed in the context of global warming on the interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales.

Irregular droughts trigger mass flowering in aseasonal tropical forests in asia.

General flowering is a community-wide masting phenomenon, which is thus far documented only in aseasonal tropical forests in Asia. Although the canopy and emergent layers of forests in this region are dominated by species of a single family, Dipterocarpaceae, general flowering involves various plant groups. Studying proximate factors and estimating the flowering patterns of the past and future may aid our understanding of the ecological significance and evolutionary factors behind this phenomenon. Here we show that this phenomenon is most likely triggered by irregular droughts based on 10 years of observations. In the aseasonal forests of SE Asia, droughts tend to occur during transition periods from La Niña to El Niño, which results in an irregular 6-7-yr cycle involving a dry period with several droughts and a wet period without droughts. The magnitude of a flowering event also depends on the timing of droughts associated with the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) cycle, with the largest events occurring after an interval of several years with no flowering. Because most plant species can only reproduce successfully during large flowering events, changes in the ENSO cycle resulting from global warming, may have serious ramifications for forest regeneration in this region.

West-east contrast of phenology and climate in northern Asia revealed using a remotely sensed vegetation index.

The phenology of the vegetation covering north Asia (mainly Siberia) and its spatial characterstics were investigated using remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The analysis used the weekly averaged NDVI over 5 years (1987-1991) using the second-generation weekly global vegetation index dataset (0.144 degrees x 0.144 degrees spatial resolution). In the seasonal NDVI cycle, three phenological events were defined for each pixel: green-up week (NDVI exceeds 0.2), maximum week, and senescence week (NDVI drops below 0.2). Generally there was a west-early/east-late gradient in the three events in north Asia. In the zonal transect between 45 degrees and 50 degrees N, the timing of green-up, maximum, and senescence near 60 degrees E (Kazakh) was about 3.4, 8.7, and 13.4 weeks earlier than near 110 degrees E (Mongolia) respectively. It has been suggested that vegetation near Kazakh only flourishes during a short period when water from snow melt is available from late spring to early summer. In Mongolia, abundant water is available for the vegetation, even in midsummer, because of precipitation. In the 50-60 degrees N zonal transect, the green-up and maximum near 40 degrees E were about 3.8 and 3.9 weeks earlier than near 115 degrees E, respectively. As for the week of senescence, there was no clear west-east trend. This west-to-east phenological gradient was related to the weekly cumulative temperature (over 0 degrees C). Weeks in which the cumalative temperature exceeded 40 degrees C and 140 degrees C had a similar west-east distribution to green-up and maximum NDVI.