Predictive models of Alzheimer's disease dementia risk in older adults with mild cognitive impairment: a systematic review and critical appraisal.

BACKGROUND: Mild cognitive impairment has received widespread attention as a high-risk population for Alzheimer's disease, and many studies have developed or validated predictive models to assess it. However, the performance of the model development remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this review was to provide an overview of prediction models for the risk of Alzheimer's disease dementia in older adults with mild cognitive impairment. METHOD: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and MEDLINE were systematically searched up to October 19, 2023. We included cohort studies in which risk prediction models for Alzheimer's disease dementia in older adults with mild cognitive impairment were developed or validated. The Predictive Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was employed to assess model bias and applicability. Random-effects models combined model AUCs and calculated (approximate) 95% prediction intervals for estimations. Heterogeneity across studies was evaluated using the I2 statistic, and subgroup analyses were conducted to investigate sources of heterogeneity. Additionally, funnel plot analysis was utilized to identify publication bias. RESULTS: The analysis included 16 studies involving 9290 participants. Frequency analysis of predictors showed that 14 appeared at least twice and more, with age, functional activities questionnaire, and Mini-mental State Examination scores of cognitive functioning being the most common predictors. From the studies, only two models were externally validated. Eleven studies ultimately used machine learning, and four used traditional modelling methods. However, we found that in many of the studies, there were problems with insufficient sample sizes, missing important methodological information, lack of model presentation, and all of the models were rated as having a high or unclear risk of bias. The average AUC of the 15 best-developed predictive models was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.83, 0.90). DISCUSSION: Most published predictive modelling studies are deficient in rigour, resulting in a high risk of bias. Upcoming research should concentrate on enhancing methodological rigour and conducting external validation of models predicting Alzheimer's disease dementia. We also emphasize the importance of following the scientific method and transparent reporting to improve the accuracy, generalizability and reproducibility of study results. REGISTRATION: This systematic review was registered in PROSPERO (Registration ID: CRD42023468780).

Higher remnant cholesterol is associated with an increased risk of amnestic mild cognitive impairment: a community-based cross-sectional study.

Background and aims: Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is the most common subtype of MCI, which carries a significantly high risk of transitioning to Alzheimer's disease. Recently, increasing attention has been given to remnant cholesterol (RC), a non-traditional and previously overlooked risk factor. The aim of this study was to explore the association between plasma RC levels and aMCI. Methods: Data were obtained from Brain Health Cognitive Management Team in Wuhan (https://hbtcm.66nao.com/admin/). A total of 1,007 community-dwelling elders were recruited for this project. Based on ten tools including general demographic data, cognitive screening and some exclusion scales, these participants were divided into the aMCI (n = 401) and normal cognitive groups (n = 606). Physical examinations were conducted on all participants, with clinical indicators such as blood pressure, blood sugar, and blood lipids collected. Results: The aMCI group had significantly higher RC levels compared to the normal cognitive group (0.64 ± 0.431 vs. 0.52 ± 0.447 mmol/L, p < 0.05). Binary logistics regression revealed that occupation (P<0.001, OR = 0.533, 95%CI: 0.423-0.673) and RC (p = 0.014, OR = 1.477, 95% CI:1.081-2.018) were associated factors for aMCI. Partial correlation analysis, after controlling for occupation, showed a significant negative correlation between RC levels and MoCA scores (r = 0.059, p = 0.046), as well as Naming scores (r = 0.070, p = 0.026). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that RC levels had an independent predictive efficacy in predicting aMCI (AUC = 0.580, 95%CI: 0.544 ~ 0.615, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Higher RC levels were identified as an independent indicator for aMCI, particularly in the naming cognitive domain among older individuals. Further longitudinal studies are necessary to validate the predictive efficacy of RC.