Raising cigarette excise tax to reduce consumption in low-and middle-income countries of the Asia-Pacific region:a simulation of the anticipated health and taxation revenues impacts.

BACKGROUND: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 80% of the world's smokers live in low- and middle-income countries. Moreover, more than half of the world's smoking-addicted population resides in the Asia-Pacific region. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies in the region. This study investigates the effects of price increases on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 22 low-income as well as middle-income countries in the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2015 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for countries with a per capita Gross National Income (GNI) above US$6000 (China and Malaysia), and considerably higher for other economies in the region. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 9.51%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.56%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 16.20%. The number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) would be the highest in China, followed by Indonesia and India. In total, over 17.96 million lives could be saved by tax increases. CONCLUSION: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths. Middle- and upper-middle income countries would be most affected by high-taxation policies.

The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling.

BACKGROUND: European Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over €25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries. METHODS: Employing panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: The results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI) per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of -1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.

The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

The possible impact of an alcohol welfare surcharge on consumption of alcoholic beverages in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: The abuse of alcoholic beverages leads to numerous negative consequences in Taiwan, as around the world. Alcohol abuse not only contributes to cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes and cancer, but it is also an underlying cause of many other serious problems, such as traffic accidents, lost productivity, and domestic violence. International leaders in health policy are increasingly using taxation as an effective tool with which to lower alcohol consumption. In this study, we assessed how consumption patterns in Taiwan would be affected by levying a welfare surcharge on alcoholic beverages of 20%, 40% or 60% in accordance with the current excise tax. We also assessed the medical savings Taiwan would experience if consumption of alcoholic beverages were to decrease and how much additional revenue a welfare surcharge would generate. METHODS: We estimated the elasticity of four types of alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, whisky and brandy) using the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) Demand Model. Specifically, we estimated alcohol's price elasticity by analyzing the sales prices and time statistics of these products from 1974 to 2009. RESULTS: Alcoholic beverages in Taiwan have the following price elasticities: beer (-0.820), wine (-0.955), whisky (-0.587), brandy (-0.958). A welfare surcharge tax of 40% in accordance with the excise tax would decrease overall consumption of beer, wine, whisky and brandy between 16.24% and 16.42%. It would also generate New Taiwan Dollar (NT$) revenues of 5.782 billion to 5.993 billion. Savings in medical costs would range from NT$871.07 million to NT$897.46 million annually. CONCLUSIONS: A social and welfare surcharge of 40% on alcoholic beverages in Taiwan would successfully lower consumption rates, decrease medical costs, and generate revenue that could be used to educate consumers and further decrease consumption rates. Consequently, we strongly recommend that such a tax be imposed in Taiwan.