RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The global incidence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) has risen over the past few decades. However, few studies have evaluated the status and incidence trends of ILD in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study assesses the trends of ILD incidence across the BRICS with an emphasis on ILD changes from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Incidence rates were estimated by the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Age-period-cohort modelling was used to estimate the effects on ILD from 1990 to 2019, and the net drift and local drift were calculated. RESULTS: In 2019, a total of 11.4 million cases of ILD were reported in the BRICS countries. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate of ILD in BRICS showed an upward trend. India consistently reported the highest incidence rate, while China showed the fastest growth rate (107.6%). Russia reported a similar incidence rates for men and women, with a lower age of peak incidence compared to the other four countries. We found the time effect was unfavourable for BRICS in the first decade, especially for Brazil; in China and Brazil, the risk of people born after 1960 has rapidly decreased. CONCLUSION: ILD shows a rising incidence in BRICS. with the trends varying based on age and other environmental factors. BRICS should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies for different stages and populations.
RESUMO
Background: The increasing burden of falls in BRICS countries warrants a comprehensive investigation to understand the dynamics and trends. This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to assess fall incidence rates in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) to provide valuable insights for the development of targeted prevention and management strategies. Methods: Data from the GBD 2019 were employed to estimate fall incidence rates. The study utilized age-period-cohort (APC) model analysis, implemented using R 4.3.0 software and the R package apc, to examine fall incidence trends from 1990 to 2019. Results: In 2019, the BRICS nations collectively reported 32.32 million fall cases. The overall fall incidence rate increased from 2681.7 per 100,000 people in 1990-2896.3 per 100,000 people in 2019. China and India exhibited escalating trends, with China experiencing the highest growth rate at 21%, followed by India at 5.8%. South Africa displayed a comparatively lower overall incidence rate increase. Notably, the 90-94 age group in China exhibited the most significant deterioration, with men and women experiencing annual increases of 4.23% and 1.77%, respectively. Age effects indicated a higher susceptibility to falls among preschool children and the elderly. Period effects revealed no improvement in the fall state for India (2005-2019) and China (2015-2019). Cohort effects adversely impacted the incidence rate for individuals born earlier in South Africa. Conclusion: The present study highlights a consistent upward trend in fall incidence rates across BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019. With an aging population, the burden of fall-related diseases is on the rise in these nations. Our results underscore the necessity of formulating evidence-based disease prevention and management approaches tailored to the distinctive demographic attributes of each nation. Addressing these trends is crucial for mitigating the growing impact of falls on public health in BRICS countries.
