[Penis growth and development in children and adolescents: a study based on GAMLSS].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate penis development in children and adolescents aged 0-16 years, and to plot the percentile curve for penis development in different age groups. METHODS: A total of 3 024 normal male neonates, children, and adolescents aged 0-16 years in Chongqing, China were selected by simple random sampling and stratified cluster sampling. The length and diameter of the penis were measured for all subjects. A descriptive statistical analysis was used to investigate the data characteristics of the penis, and the GAMLSS fitting model was used to plot the percentile curves of P3, P10, P25, P50, P75, P90, and P97 and obtain percentile reference values. RESULTS: The length and diameter of the penis grew rapidly before the age of 1 year, grew relatively slowly from 1 to 11 years old, and entered a rapid growth period from 11 years old. The length of the penis was positively correlated with its diameter (r=0.961, P<0.01). The percentile reference values of penis length and diameter were obtained and the percentile curve was plotted. CONCLUSIONS: The growth and development of penis length is consistent with that of penis diameter in male children and adolescents in Chongqing, and 0-1 year and 11-16 years are rapid growth periods of penis length and diameter. The percentile curve of penis length and diameter in children and adolescents aged 0-16 years in Chongqing which has been established will provide a reference for further studies on sexual development in children and adolescents.

[Comparison of Flu Outbreak Reporting Standards Based on Transmission Dynamics Model].

OBJECTIVE: To compare the current two flu outbreak reporting standards for the purpose of better prevention and control of flu outbreaks. METHODS: A susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model without interventions was set up first, followed by a model with interventions based on real situation. Simulated interventions were developed based on the two reporting standards, and evaluated by estimated duration of outbreaks, cumulative new cases, cumulative morbidity rates, decline in percentage of morbidity rates, and cumulative secondary cases. RESULTS: The basic reproductive number of the outbreak was estimated as 8. 2. The simulation produced similar results as the real situation. The effect of interventions based on reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) was better than that of interventions based on reporting standard two (30 accumulated new cases in a week). CONCLUSION: The reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) is more effective for prevention and control of flu outbreaks.