RESUMO
The outbreak of COVID-19 has caused tremendous pressure on medical systems. Adequate isolation facilities are essential to control outbreaks, so this study aims to quickly estimate the demand and number of isolation beds. We established a discrete simulation model for epidemiology. By adjusting or fitting necessary epidemic parameters, the effects of the following indicators on the development of the epidemic and the occupation of medical resources were explained: (1) incubation period, (2) response speed and detection capacity of the hospital, (3) disease cure time, and (4) population mobility. Finally, a method for predicting the reasonable number of isolation beds was summarized through multiple linear regression. The prediction equation can be easily and quickly applied to estimate the demanded number of isolation beds in a COVID-19-affected city. A detailed explanation is given for the specific measurement of each parameter in the article.
