Current and future scenarios of suitability and expansion of cassava brown streak disease, Bemisia tabaci species complex, and cassava planting in Africa.

Cassava (Manihot esculenta) is among the most important staple crops globally, with an imperative role in supporting the Sustainable Development Goal of 'Zero hunger'. In sub-Saharan Africa, it is cultivated mainly by millions of subsistence farmers who depend directly on it for their socio-economic welfare. However, its yield in some regions has been threatened by several diseases, especially the cassava brown streak disease (CBSD). Changes in climatic conditions enhance the risk of the disease spreading to other planting regions. Here, we characterise the current and future distribution of cassava, CBSD and whitefly Bemisia tabaci species complex in Africa, using an ensemble of four species distribution models (SDMs): boosted regression trees, maximum entropy, generalised additive model, and multivariate adaptive regression splines, together with 28 environmental covariates. We collected 1,422 and 1,169 occurrence records for cassava and Bemisia tabaci species complex from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and 750 CBSD occurrence records from published literature and systematic surveys in East Africa. Our results identified isothermality as having the highest contribution to the current distribution of cassava, while elevation was the top predictor of the current distribution of Bemisia tabaci species complex. Cassava harvested area and precipitation of the driest month contributed the most to explain the current distribution of CBSD outbreaks. The geographic distributions of these target species are also expected to shift under climate projection scenarios for two mid-century periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). Our results indicate that major cassava producers, like Cameron, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria, are at greater risk of invasion of CBSD. These results highlight the need for firmer agricultural management and climate-change mitigation actions in Africa to combat new outbreaks and to contain the spread of CBSD.

Insect pollinators can unlock an annual monetary value of more than US $100 million from crop production in Rwanda.

Insect pollinators provide a natural ecosystem service to more than 80% of known flowering plants, many of which are part of our diet. However, their importance in Africa and an agriculture-dependent country like Rwanda has yet to receive attention. This encumbers policy formulation and investments in insect pollinators as a strategic agronomic input. Meanwhile, Rwanda cultivates crops that can benefit significantly from insect pollinators for superior agronomic outputs. To uncover this, we characterized the dependence of the crop production subsector on insect pollinators. Using the bioeconomic approach, we assessed the total economic value and the value due to insect pollinators of crops cultivated in Rwanda. We also evaluated the crop's production value per ton and whether production would meet consumption demands in the complete absence of insect pollinators. Using 71 representative crops currently grown in Rwanda, we found a direct dependency of 62% on insect pollinators. Of 32 representative crops used for economic valuation in two years (2014 and 2020), their total monetary value is estimated at $2.551 billion to $2.788 billion. Direct insect pollinator-dependent crops accounted for 20% (2014) to 18% (2020) of this value, with the share attributed to insect pollinators above $100 million. The sector's vulnerability to insect pollinators decreased from 7.3% in 2014 to 4.3% in 2020. The mean production value per ton of the direct insect pollinator-dependent crops was found to be higher in 2014 before declining in 2020. Using 21 representative crops from 2014 to 2020, we found that many direct insect pollinator-dependent crops will struggle to meet consumption demands in the complete absence of all suitable insect pollinators. Finally, we propose interventions and future research that could be undertaken. These insights are a critical first step to propel the government to act on insect pollination to support its food security agenda.