Impact of vaccine effectiveness and coverage on preventing large mumps outbreaks on college campuses: Implications for vaccination strategy.

Recent mumps outbreaks among highly vaccinated populations, including college students, have called into question the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of routine two-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR2) immunization. We aimed to estimate the VE required for a novel vaccination strategy (e.g., MMR booster dose, novel vaccine) to prevent large mumps outbreaks on college campuses. Using mumps college outbreak data reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2016-2017, we estimated current MMR2 VE using the screening method and implemented a compartmental model of mumps transmission. We performed 2000 outbreak simulations, following introduction of an infectious person to a population of 10,000, over ranges of MMR2 vaccine coverage (VC) and VE (30.0-99.0%). We compared the impact of varying VC and VE on mumps and mumps orchitis case counts and determined VE thresholds that ensured < 5.0% and < 2.0% of the outbreak simulations exceeded 20 and 100 mumps cases. Median estimated MMR2 VE in reported mumps outbreaks was 60.5% and median reported MMR2 VC was 97.5%. Simulated mumps case count was more sensitive to changes in VE than in VC. The opposite was true for simulated mumps orchitis case count, though orchitis case count was small (mean <10 cases across simulations for VE near 60.5% and VC near 97.5%). At 97.5% VC, 73.1% and 78.2% VE were required for < 5.0% and < 2.0% of outbreaks, respectively, to exceed 100 mumps cases. Maintaining 97.5% VC, 82.4% and 85.9% VE were required for < 5.0% and < 2.0% of outbreaks, respectively, to exceed 20 cases. We conclude that maintaining current levels of MMR2 VC, a novel vaccination strategy aimed at reducing mumps transmission must achieve at least 73.1-85.9% VE among young adults to prevent large mumps outbreaks on college campuses.

Ganciclovir and Valganciclovir Use Among Infants With Congenital Cytomegalovirus: Data From a Multicenter Electronic Health Record Dataset in the United States.

Among 342 US infants with congenital cytomegalovirus treated with antivirals, 114 (33%) received ganciclovir (with or without valganciclovir) and 228 (67%) received valganciclovir only, for a median of 8 and 171 days, starting at a median of 15 and 45 days of life, respectively, with neutropenia diagnosed in 25% and 17%.

Characterizing managing physicians by claims sequences in episodes of care.

Value-based healthcare in the US is a payment structure that ties reimbursement to quality rather than volume alone. One model of value-based care is the Tennessee Division of TennCare's Episodes of Care program, which groups common health conditions into episodes using specified time windows, medical code sets and quality metrics as defined in each episode's Detailed Business Requirements [1,2]. Tennessee's program assigns responsibility for an episode to a managing physician, presenting a unique opportunity to study physician variability in cost and quality within these structured episodes. This paper proposes a pipeline for analysis demonstrated using a cohort of 599 Outpatient and Non-Acute Inpatient Cholecystectomy episodes managed by BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee in 2016. We sorted episode claims by date of service, then calculated the pairwise Levenshtein distance between all episodes. Next, we adjusted the resulting matrix by cost dissimilarity and performed agglomerative clustering. We then examined the lowest and highest average episode cost clusters for patterns in cost and quality. Our results indicate that the facility type where the surgery takes place is important: outpatient ambulatory care center for the lowest cost cluster, and hospital operating room for the highest cost cluster. Average patient risk scores were higher in the highest cost cluster than the lowest cost cluster. Readmission rate (a quality metric tied to managing physician performance) was low for the whole cohort. Lastly, we explain how our analytical pipeline can be generalized and extended to domains beyond Episodes of Care.

Differential classification of infants in United States neonatal intensive care units for weight, length, and head circumference by United States and international growth curves.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians and researchers use a variety of intrauterine growth curves to classify NICU infants as small (SGA), appropriate (AGA), or large for gestational age (LGA). Since curve creation methods and samples vary, SGA/AGA/LGA cut-offs and resulting subgroups of infants vary among curves and impact outcome study findings - limiting generalisability. AIM: Determine how two international and two US-specific curves classified US NICU infants. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Classified 192,888 infants from US NICUs (2013-2016) as SGA or LGA for birthweight, length, and head circumference, using the international Fenton and INTERGROWTH-21st curves and US-specific Olsen and Lubchenco (historical) curves. RESULTS: Modern curves classified approximately 10% of infants as SGA up to 32 weeks, but older infants had increased variability. The INTERGROWTH-21st curves consistently had rates above 10% for LGA after 32 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: While Olsen and Fenton both fit, the Olsen curves had overall best-fit for our sample of US NICU infants. The INTERGROWTH-21st curves fit the definitions for SGA and LGA for younger ages, but inferences outside of these definitions are unwarranted due to limited sample size. The INTERGROWTH-21st sample used for 33 weeks and older infants was physically smaller at the upper percentiles than our sample of US infants.