Nut bush pesticide limits: urgent need for a comprehensive strategy to address current and emerging insect pests and insecticide options in the Australian macadamia industry.

In Australia, macadamia orchards are attacked by four main insect pest groups. Management and control of three of these key pests currently relies on broad-spectrum insecticides whose long-term future is questionable. Of the 23 insecticides registered for use in macadamia in Australia, 19 face issues affecting their availability and 12 are presently not approved in the EU, the USA or Canada. These international markets may refuse produce that does not adhere to their own insecticide use standards, hence Australian produce may be excluded from market access. Many of the potential replacement integrated pest management methods of pest control are generally considered less effective by the industry and have not been adopted. There are 17 insect pest groups identified by the industry, any of which have potential to become major problems if broad-spectrum insecticide options become unavailable. Thirteen pest groups need urgent attention as they are at risk of losing current effective control methods, and no replacement solutions have yet been developed. The lag period for research and development to identify new chemical and biological control solutions means there is now an urgent need for the macadamia industry to craft a strategy for sustainable pest management for each pest. Critically, this industry strategy needs to address the vulnerabilities identified in this paper, identify potential solutions for any cases of market failure and consider funding mechanisms to address these gaps. On economic and sustainability grounds, potential biological control options should be explored, especially in cases where insecticide control options are vulnerable. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Preempting the Arrival of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys: Biological Control Options for Australia.

The brown marmorated stink bug Halyomorphahalys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) is native to Northeast Asia, but has become a serious invasive species in North America and Europe, causing major damage to crops. While it has not established itself in Australia, it has been intercepted at the border several times, indicating that future incursions and establishment are a case of when, not if. Biological control is one of the few control options for this species and will be important for managing H.halys should it become established in Australia. Prioritizing species that could be used as biological control agents would ensure Australia is prepared. This study summarizes the literature on natural enemies of H. halys in its native and invaded ranges and prioritizes potential biological control agents of H.halys that could be used in Australia. Two egg parasitoid species were identified: Trissolcusjaponicus (Ashmead) and Trissolcusmitsukurii (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae). Future efforts to develop biological control should focus on T. mitsukurii, as it is already present in Australia. However, little is known about this species and further work is required to: (1) assess its potential effectiveness in parasitizing H. halys, (2) determine its current distribution and (3) host range in Australia.

Modelling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Two Trissolcus Species for the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys.

The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to northeast Asia. It was accidentally introduced to Europe and North America, where it has become a key pest, feeding on many important crops. Previous eco-climatic niche modelling indicates that H. halys could expand its distribution vastly, and numerous border interceptions of this pest in many countries, including Australia and New Zealand, indicate that it would be prudent to prepare for its eventual arrival. Similar niche modelling was used to assess the potential distribution of Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae), the key parasitoid of H. halys in China. Trissolcus mitsukurii (Ashmead) is one of the main parasitoids of H. halys in Japan. It is known to have existed in Australia since the early 20th century and was also specifically introduced to Australia in the 1960s, and it has now also invaded Italy. We used CLIMEX to model the climatic niche of T. mitsukurii to estimate its global potential distribution. We found that T. mitsukurii should be able to significantly expand its range globally, and that there is a significant degree of overlap in the projected ranges of T. mitsukurii, T. japonicus and H. halys. From a biological control perspective, this implies that the two Trissolcus species may be able to help mitigate the potential impacts of H. halys.

Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases.

Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990's there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.

Black Sigatoka in bananas: Ecoclimatic suitability and disease pressure assessments.

Black leaf streak disease, or black Sigatoka, is caused by the fungus Pseudocercospora fijiensis, and has been identified as a major constraint to global production of banana and plantain. We fitted a climatic niche model (CLIMEX) for P. fijiensis to gain an understanding of the patterns of climate suitability, and hence hazard from this disease. We then calibrated the climate suitability patterns against the results of an expert elicitation of disease pressure patterns. We found a moderately strong non-linear relationship between modelled climate suitability for P.°fijiensis and the expert ratings for disease pressure. The strength of the relationship provides a cross-validation between the CLIMEX model and the expert elicitation process. The bulk of global banana production experiences high potential threat from P. fijiensis, and the higher yielding areas for banana and plantain production are at greatest threat. By explicitly considering the role of irrigation we have been able to identify how strategic irrigation could be used to support banana production in areas that are at low risk from P. fijiensis.

The potential global distribution of Chilo partellus, including consideration of irrigation and cropping patterns.

Chilo partellus is a major crop pest in Asia and Africa, and has recently spread to the Mediterranean region. Knowledge of its potential distribution can inform biosecurity policies aimed at limiting its further spread and efforts to reduce its impact in areas that are already invaded. Three models of the potential distribution of this insect have been published, each with significant shortcomings. We re-parameterized an existing CLIMEX model to address some parameter inconsistencies and to improve the fit to the known distribution of C. partellus. The resulting model fits the known distribution better than previous models, highlights additional risks in equatorial regions and reduces modelled risks in wet and extremely dry regions. We bring new insights into the role of irrigation in the potential spread of this invasive insect and compare its potential distribution with the present known distribution of its hosts. We also distinguish regions that are suitable for supporting persistent populations from those that may be at risk from ephemeral populations during favourable seasons. We present one of the first demonstrations of a new capability in CLIMEX to automatically estimate parameter sensitivity and model uncertainty. Our CLIMEX model highlights the substantial invasion risk posed by C. partellus to cropping regions in the Americas, Australia, China, Europe, New Zealand and West Africa. Its broad host range and reported impacts suggest that it should be a pest of significant concern to biosecurity agencies in these presently uninvaded regions.

The potential distribution of cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti), a threat to food security for the poor.

The cassava mealybug is a clear and present threat to the food security and livelihoods of some of the world's most impoverished citizens. Niche models, such as CLIMEX, are useful tools to indicate where and when such threats may extend, and can assist with planning for biosecurity and the management of pest invasions. They can also contribute to bioeconomic analyses that underpin the allocation of resources to alleviate poverty. Because species can invade and establish in areas with climates that are different from those that are found in their native range, it is essential to define robust range-limiting mechanisms in niche models. To avoid spurious results when applied to novel climates, it is necessary to employ cross-validation techniques spanning different knowledge domains (e.g., distribution data, experimental results, phenological observations). We build upon and update a CLIMEX niche model by Parsa et al. (PloS ONE 7: e47675), correcting inconsistent parameters and re-fitting it based on a careful examination of geographical distribution data and relevant literature. Further, we consider the role of irrigation, the known distribution of cassava production and a targeted review of satellite imagery to refine, validate and interpret our model and results. In so doing, we bring new insights into the potential spread of this invasive insect, enabling us to identify potential bio-security threats and biological control opportunities. The fit of the revised model is improved, particularly in relation to the wet and dry limits to establishment, and the parameter values are biologically plausible and accord with published scientific literature.

Research investment implications of shifts in the global geography of wheat stripe rust.

Breeding new crop varieties with resistance to the biotic stresses that undermine crop yields is tantamount to increasing the amount and quality of biological capital in agriculture. However, the success of genes that confer resistance to pests induces a co-evolutionary response that depreciates the biological capital embodied in the crop, as pests evolve the capacity to overcome the crop's new defences. Thus, simply maintaining this biological capital, and the beneficial production and economic outcomes it bestows, requires continual reinvestment in new crop defences. Here we use observed and modelled data on stripe rust occurrence to gauge changes in the geographic spread of the disease over recent decades. We document a significant increase in the spread of stripe rust since 1960, with 88% of the world's wheat production now susceptible to infection. Using a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model we estimate that 5.47 million tonnes of wheat are lost to the pathogen each year, equivalent to a loss of US$979 million per year. Comparing the cost of developing stripe-rust-resistant varieties of wheat with the cost of stripe-rust-induced yield losses, we estimate that a sustained annual research investment of at least US$32 million into stripe rust resistance is economically justified.

The Potential Geographic Range of Pyrenophora semeniperda.

ABSTRACT There is no evidence that Pyrenophora semeniperda, the causal agent of leaf spotting in many annual and perennial grasses, currently occurs in Europe or Asia. However, there is potential phytosanitary concern that the importation of infected commodities could result in the introduction of this fungus into Eurasia, putting crops at risk and possibly resulting in economic losses. To assist in assessing the risk of geographic range extension of P. semeniperda, an analysis was undertaken to estimate the potential global distribution of this species, based on climatic suitability. Geographic distribution data for P. semeniperda in part of its current range were used to fit parameter values in a CLIMEX pest risk assessment model, and the remaining distribution data were used to validate the model. The CLIMEX model correctly predicts that virtually all locations where P. semeniperda has been found are climatically suitable. Only five locations worldwide where the fungus was recorded present are predicted as being unsuitable. These "outliers" may have been transient populations occurring during a favorable season and then dying out. Exploratory adjustments of the model to accommodate these records created unsatisfactory distortions in the projected climatic suitability surfaces, extending the suitable climatic zone beyond well-established traditional range boundaries. We are therefore confident that the model is credibly predicting the potential distribution of P. semeniperda worldwide. The CLIMEX model suggests that P. semeniperda could potentially extend its range throughout Europe and temperate regions of Asia, Africa, and South America. Our heavy reliance upon geographic data to build this CLIMEX model departs from most previous published examples in plant pathology, which have depended primarily upon experimentally derived physiological data to estimate model parameters. The use of geographic data to infer climate parameters is popular in CLIMEX models of weeds and arthropod pests and can provide decision-makers with early risk assessments of potential pathogen invasions, particularly where the pathogens have long, or difficult-to-study, lifecycles.