Equity impact of HPV vaccination on lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among cohorts in 84 countries by global, regional, and income levels, 2010-22: a modelling study.

Background: While human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have been available since 2006, the coverage has varied among countries. Our aim is to analyse the equity impact of HPV vaccination on the lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among vaccinated cohorts of 2010-22 in 84 countries. Methods: We used WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage for HPV vaccination in 84 countries during 2010-22. We used PRIME (Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics) to estimate the lifetime health impact of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer burden in terms of deaths, cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by vaccination in their respective countries. We generated concentration indices and curves to assess the equity impact of HPV vaccination across 84 countries. Findings: The health impact of HPV vaccination varied across the 84 countries and ranged from Switzerland to Tanzania at 2 to 34 deaths, 4 to 47 cases, and 40 to 735 DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated adolescent girls over the lifetime of the vaccinated cohorts of 2010-22. The concentration index for the distribution of average coverage during 2010-22 among the 84 countries ranked by vaccine impact was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.27-0.40) and highlights the wide inequities in HPV vaccination coverage. Interpretation: Our findings suggested that countries with a relatively higher cervical cancer burden and thereby a relatively higher need for HPV vaccination had relatively lower coverage during 2010-22. Further, there were significant inequities in HPV vaccination coverage within the Americas, Europe, and Western Pacific regions, and in high- and low-income countries with a pro-advantaged and regressive distribution favouring countries with lower vaccine impact. Funding: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The road to recovery: impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilization in South Korea in 2016-2022 using an interrupted time-series analysis.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic substantially disrupted healthcare utilization patterns, globally. South Korea had been praised widely in its efforts to contain the spread of the pandemic, which may have contributed to a significantly smaller reduction in healthcare utilization compared to neighboring countries. However, it remains unknown how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted utilization patterns across population sub-groups, particularly vulnerable patient groups in South Korea. This paper quantifies the changes in healthcare utilization attributable to COVID-19 and the COVID-19 vaccination by sub-groups. Methods: An interrupted time series analysis was conducted to examine the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilization in South Korea from January 2016 to December 2022 using aggregated patient-level data from the national health insurance system that accounts for 99% of all healthcare services in South Korea. We applied negative binomial models adjusting for seasonality and serial correlation. Falsification tests were conducted to test the validity of breakpoints. Stratified analyses by type of healthcare services, age, sex, income level, health facility type, and avoidable/non-avoidable hospitalizations was performed, and we assessed differences in utilization trends between population groups across three phases of the pandemic. Findings: In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a reduction in monthly volume of outpatient utilization by 15.7% [95% CI 13.3%-18.1%, p < 0.001] and inpatient utilization by 11.6% [10.1%-13.0%, p < 0.001]. Most utilization recovered and rebounded to pre-COVID-19 levels as of December 2022 although variations existed. We observed heterogeneity in the magnitude of relative changes in utilization across types of services, varying from a 42.7% [36.8%-48.0%, p < 0.001] decrease for pediatrics, a 23.4% [20.1%-26.5%%, p < 0.001] reduction in utilization of public health centers, and a 24.2% [21.2%-27.0%, p < 0.001] reduction in avoidable hospitalizations compared to the pre-pandemic period. Contrary to global trends, health utilization among the elderly population (65 and older) in South Korea saw only marginal reductions compared to other age groups. Similarly, Medicaid patients and lower income groups experienced a smaller reduction compared to higher income groups. Interpretation: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare utilization in South Korea was less pronounced compared to the global average. Utilization of vulnerable populations, including adults over 65 years old and lowest-income groups reduced less than other type of patients. Funding: No funding.

COVAX and equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines.

Objective: To evaluate equity in the allocation and distribution of vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to countries and territories participating in the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility. Methods: We used publicly available data on the numbers of COVAX vaccine doses allocated and distributed to 88 countries and territories qualifying for COVAX-sponsored vaccine doses and 60 countries self-financing their vaccine doses facilitated by COVAX. We conducted a benefit-incident analysis to examine the allocation and distribution of vaccines based on countries' gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We plotted cumulative country-level per capita allocation and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines from COVAX against the ranked per capita GDP of the countries and territories to generate a measure of the equity of COVAX benefits. Findings: By 23 January 2022 the COVAX Facility had allocated a total of 1 678 517 990 COVID-19 vaccine doses, of which 1 028 291 430 (61%) doses were distributed to 148 countries and territories. Taking account of COVAX subsidies, we found that countries and territories with low per capita GDP benefited more than higher-income countries in the numbers of vaccines. The benefits increased further when the analysis was adjusted by population age group (aged 65 years and older). Conclusion: The COVAX Facility is helping to balance global inequities in the allocation and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. However, COVAX alone has not been enough to reverse the inequality of total COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Future studies could examine the equity of all COVID-19 vaccine allocation and distribution beyond the COVAX-facilitated vaccines.

Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries.

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.

Opioid abuse and austerity: Evidence on health service use and mortality in England.

Opioid abuse has become a public health concern among many developed countries, with policymakers searching for strategies to mitigate adverse effects on population health and the wider economy. The United Kingdom has seen dramatic increases in opioid-related mortality following the financial crises in 2008. We examine the impact of spending cuts resulting from government prescribed austerity measures on opioid-related hospitalisations and mortality, thereby expanding on existing evidence suggesting a countercyclical relationship with macroeconomic performance. We take advantage of the variation in spending cuts passed down from central government to local authorities since 2010, with reductions in budgets of up to fifty percent in some areas resulting in the rescaling of vital public services. Longitudinal panel data methods are used to analyse a comprehensive, linked dataset that combines information from spending records, official death registry data and large administrative health care data for 152 local authorities (i.e., unitary authorities and county councils) in England between April 2010 and March 2017. A total of 280,827 people experienced a hospital admission in the English National Health Service because of an opioid overdose and 14,700 people died from opioids across the study period. Local authorities that experienced largest spending cuts also saw largest increases in opioid abuse. Interactions between changes in unemployment and spending items for welfare programmes show evidence about the importance for governments to protect populations from social-risk effects at times of deteriorating macroeconomic performance. Our study carries important lessons for countries aiming to address high rates of opioid abuse, including the United States, Canada and Sweden.

Systematic assessment of South Korea's capabilities to control COVID-19.

South Korea's COVID-19 control strategy has been widely emulated. Korea's ability to rapidly achieve disease control in early 2020 without a "Great Lockdown" despite its proximity to China and high population density make its achievement particularly intriguing. This paper helps explain Korea's pre-existing capabilities which enabled the rapid and effective implementation of its COVID-19 control strategies. A systematic assessment across multiple domains demonstrates that South Korea's advantages in controlling its epidemic are owed tremendously to legal and organizational reforms enacted after the MERS outbreak in 2015. Successful implementation of the Korean strategy required more than just a set of actions, measures and policies. It relied on a pre-existing legal framework, financing arrangements, governance and a workforce experienced in outbreak management.

What Are Governments Spending on Health in East and Southern Africa?

Progress toward universal health care (UHC) in Africa will require sustained increases in public spending on health and reduced reliance on out-of-pocket financing. This article reviews trends and patterns of government spending in the East and Southern Africa regions and points out methodological challenges with interpreting data from the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) and other sources. Government expenditure for health has increased for most countries, albeit at a slower rate than gross domestic product (GDP). In most countries there has been a prioritization away from health in government budgets, putting the onus on the private sector and donors to fill the gap. Donor support is important in the region but reliance on external spending is not consistent with countries' stated ambitions of universal health coverage. A number of methodological challenges with estimating health expenditures are identified. Capturing health expenditures adequately across agencies and levels of decentralization can be challenging, and off-budget funds and arrears are evasive. Measurement error can be significant because actual expenditure information can be hard to come by and is often dated and unreliable. Furthermore, how external financing is captured will affect government health expenditure estimates. These factors have contributed to differences in expenditure estimates between the WHO GHED and country-specific public expenditure reviews and complicate interpretation. The article concludes that it is critical to strengthen national data capacity and international efforts to promote quality and consistency of data. The GHED is an invaluable resource for monitoring and benchmarking health expenditures. It is best used in combination with deep dive country expenditure assessments.

[Learning from the USA Affordable Healthcare Act: The New York 2016 Hospital Executive Study Tour].

From June 27th to July 1st 2016, the International Hospital Federation (IHF) and Health Investment & Financing hosted a Hospital Executive Study Tour in New York City, NY, USA. The objective of the Hospital Executive Study Tour was to enable participant to learn how the US hospital sector addresses some of the key challenges and solutions in transforming the way hospital care is delivered in the 21st Century. The New York Study Tour was part of a series of premier events offered by the IHF. This Study Tour was a collaborative effort among regional members and partner organizations in hosting various events to allow an exchange of ideas, knowledge, experiences and best practices in the delivery of healthcare services, and in the leadership and management of their organizations.