Tree-Based Reinforcement Learning for Identifying Optimal Personalized Treatment Decisions for Hand Deformity in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Silicone metacarpophalangeal joint arthroplasty (SMPA) can reconstruct metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint deformities in the rheumatoid hand, but patient selection criteria for the procedure remains unclear. We used statistical learning to elucidate patient selection criteria that will enhance long-term patient-reported and functional outcomes in patients with severe hand rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a prospective study of 169 adults with severe hand RA (average combined ulnar deviation (UD) and extensor lag (EL) at the MCP joint ≥ 50 degrees, per finger) with one-year follow-up, conducted at three centers in the United States and England from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2011. Primary outcomes were Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire (MHQ) pain sub-score, changes in EL, UD, and Arthritis Impact Measurement Scale (AIMS2) score. A tree-based reinforcement learning (T-RL) model was used to estimate clinical decision rules for treatment. RESULTS: 132 patients (mean[SD], 61[9] years; 108[72%] female) were included in the SMPA (n=50) and non-SMPA (n=82) cohorts. To minimize EL and UD, patients should undergo SMPA. To minimize pain, patients older than 55 should undergo SMPA. To increase hand-related quality-of-life (QOL), patients with grip strength <12 kg should undergo SMPA. Estimations with imputed missing data were similar, aside from a lower grip strength (<8 kg) threshold for hand-related QOL. CONCLUSION: Unless there is significant comorbidity that precludes surgery, most patients older than 55 with severe hand RA will have improved QOL, pain, and function after SMPA. Patients with preserved grip strength may benefit from continued medical management.

Comparison of Long-Term Healthcare Cost and Utilisation of Nonoperative and Surgical Management of Thumb CMC Arthritis.

Background: Thumb carpometacarpal joint (CMC) osteoarthritis is the most symptomatic hand arthritis but the long-term healthcare burden for managing this condition is unknown. We sought to compare total healthcare cost and utilisation for operative and nonoperative treatments of thumb CMC arthritis. Methods: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis using a large nationwide insurance claims database. A total of 18,705 patients underwent CMC arthroplasty (trapeziectomy with or without ligament reconstruction tendon interposition) or steroid injections between 1 October 2015 and 31 December 2018. Primary outcomes, healthcare utilisation and costs were measured from 1 year pre-intervention to 3 years post-intervention. Generalised linear mixed effect models adjusted for potentially confounding factors such as the Elixhauser comorbidity score with propensity score matching were applied to evaluate the association between the primary outcomes and treatment type. Results: A total of 13,646 patients underwent treatment through steroid injections, and 5,059 patients underwent CMC arthroplasty. At 1 year preoperatively, the surgery group required $635 more healthcare costs (95% CI [594.28, 675.27]; p < 0.001) and consumed 42% more healthcare utilisation (95% CI [1.38, 1.46]; p < 0.0001) than the steroid injection group. At 3 years postoperatively, the surgery group required $846 less healthcare costs (95% CI [-883.07, -808.51], p < 0.0001) and had 51% less utilisation (95% CI [0.49, 0.53]; p < 0.0001) annually. Cumulatively over 3 years, the surgical group on average was $4,204 costlier than its counterpart secondary to surgical costs. Conclusions: CMC arthritis treatment incurs high healthcare cost and utilisation independent of other medical comorbidities. At 3 years postoperatively, the annual healthcare cost and utilisation for surgical patients were less than those for patients who underwent conservative management, but this difference was insufficient to offset the initial surgical cost. Level of Evidence: Level III (Therapeutic).

Cost-effectiveness of surgical treatment of thumb carpometacarpal joint arthritis: a value of information study.

BACKGROUND: Thumb carpometacarpal (CMC) joint arthritis is one of the most prevalent arthritic conditions commonly treated with trapeziectomy alone or trapeziectomy with ligament reconstruction and tendon interposition (LRTI). We evaluate the cost-effectiveness and value of perfect and sample information of trapeziectomy alone, LRTI, and non-operative treatment. METHODS: A societal perspective decision tree was modeled. To understand the value of future research in comparing quality-of-life after trapeziectomy, LRTI, and non-operative management we characterized uncertainty by fitting distributions to EQ-5D utility data published from the United Kingdom hand surgery registry. We used Monte Carlo simulation for the probabilistic sensitivity analysis and to evaluate the value of perfect and sample information. RESULTS: Both trapeziectomy alone and LRTI were cost-effective compared to non-operative management ($2,540 and $3,511/QALY respectively). Trapeziectomy alone (base case total cost $8,251, QALY 14.08) was dominant compared to LRTI (base case total cost $8,798, QALY 13.34). However, probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested there is a 12.5% chance LRTI may be preferred at a willingness-to-pay of $50,000/QALY. Sensitivity analysis revealed postoperative utilities are the most influential factors in determining cost-effectiveness. The value of perfect information was approximately $1,503/person. A study evaluating the quality-of-life of 1,000 patients in each arm undergoing trapeziectomy alone or LRTI could provide an expected $1,117 of information value. With approximately 40,000 CMC arthroplasties performed each year in the U.S., the annual value is close to $45 million. CONCLUSIONS: Trapeziectomy without LRTI appears to be the most cost-effective procedure in treating late-stage CMC arthritis and should be considered as first-line surgical treatment. There is substantial societal value in conducting additional research to better understand the relative quality-of-life improvements gained from these two common hand surgeries.

Using Rasch Analysis to Evaluate the Psychometric Properties of the Brief MHQ in Patients with Traumatic Finger Amputations.

Background: Digit amputations affect 45,000 Americans each year and are associated with substantial healthcare expenditures and loss of wages. Few patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are validated in patients with digit amputations. The brief Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire (bMHQ) is a 12-item PROM used in several hand conditions. However, its psychometric properties have not been investigated in patients with digit amputations. Methods: The reliability and validity of the bMHQ was investigated using Rasch analysis. Data were collected from the Finger Replantation and Amputation Challenges in Assessing Impairment, Satisfaction, and Effectiveness (FRANCHISE) study. Participants were divided into replantation and revision amputation cohorts and then further separated into single-digit amputation (excluding thumb), thumb-only amputation and multiple-digit amputation (excluding thumb) subgroups. Each of the six subgroups were analysed for item fit, threshold ordering, targeting, differential item functioning (DIF), unidimensionality and internal consistency. Results: All treatment groups demonstrated high unidimensionality (Martin-Löf test = 1) and internal consistency (Cronbach's α > 0.85). The bMHQ is not a reliable PROM in individuals with single-digit or multiple-digit amputations. The aesthetics, satisfaction and two-handed activities of daily living (ADLs) items had the poorest fit to the Rasch model across all categories. Conclusions: The bMHQ is not well-suited for measuring outcomes in patients with digit amputations. We recommend clinicians use more comprehensive assessment tools, such as the complete MHQ, to measure outcomes in these complex patient populations. Level of Evidence: Level III (Diagnostic).

Can a Deep Learning Algorithm Improve Detection of Occult Scaphoid Fractures in Plain Radiographs? A Clinical Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Occult scaphoid fractures on initial radiographs of an injury are a diagnostic challenge to physicians. Although artificial intelligence models based on the principles of deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) offer a potential method of detection, it is unknown how such models perform in the clinical setting. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) Does CNN-assisted image interpretation improve interobserver agreement for scaphoid fractures? (2) What is the sensitivity and specificity of image interpretation performed with and without CNN assistance (as stratified by type: normal scaphoid, occult fracture, and apparent fracture)? (3) Does CNN assistance improve time to diagnosis and physician confidence level? METHODS: This survey-based experiment presented 15 scaphoid radiographs (five normal, five apparent fractures, and five occult fractures) with and without CNN assistance to physicians in a variety of practice settings across the United States and Taiwan. Occult fractures were identified by follow-up CT scans or MRI. Participants met the following criteria: Postgraduate Year 3 or above resident physician in plastic surgery, orthopaedic surgery, or emergency medicine; hand fellows; and attending physicians. Among the 176 invited participants, 120 completed the survey and met the inclusion criteria. Of the participants, 31% (37 of 120) were fellowship-trained hand surgeons, 43% (52 of 120) were plastic surgeons, and 69% (83 of 120) were attending physicians. Most participants (73% [88 of 120]) worked in academic centers, whereas the remainder worked in large, urban private practice hospitals. Recruitment occurred between February 2022 and March 2022. Radiographs with CNN assistance were accompanied by predictions of fracture presence and gradient-weighted class activation mapping of the predicted fracture site. Sensitivity and specificity of the CNN-assisted physician diagnoses were calculated to assess diagnostic performance. We calculated interobserver agreement with the Gwet agreement coefficient (AC1). Physician diagnostic confidence was estimated using a self-assessment Likert scale, and the time to arrive at a diagnosis for each case was measured. RESULTS: Interobserver agreement among physicians for occult scaphoid radiographs was higher with CNN assistance than without (AC1 0.42 [95% CI 0.17 to 0.68] versus 0.06 [95% CI 0.00 to 0.17], respectively). No clinically relevant differences were observed in time to arrive at a diagnosis (18 ± 12 seconds versus 30 ± 27 seconds, mean difference 12 seconds [95% CI 6 to 17]; p < 0.001) or diagnostic confidence levels (7.2 ± 1.7 seconds versus 6.2 ± 1.6 seconds; mean difference 1 second [95% CI 0.5 to 1.3]; p < 0.001) for occult fractures. CONCLUSION: CNN assistance improves physician diagnostic sensitivity and specificity as well as interobserver agreement for the diagnosis of occult scaphoid fractures. The differences observed in diagnostic speed and confidence is likely not clinically relevant. Despite these improvements in clinical diagnoses of scaphoid fractures with the CNN, it is unknown whether development and implementation of such models is cost effective. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, diagnostic study.

Comparison of Distal Radius Fracture Outcomes in Older Adults Stratified by Chronologic vs Physiologic Age Managed With Casting vs Surgery.

Importance: Casting is recommended for adults older than 65 years with distal radius fractures (DRFs) because similar long-term outcomes are achieved regardless of treatment. However, physiologically younger adults could benefit from operative DRF management despite advanced chronologic age. Objective: To examine how chronologic age compares with measures of physiologic age in DRF treatment recovery. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective secondary analysis of the Wrist and Radius Injury Surgical Trial (WRIST) was performed from May 1 to August 31, 2022. WRIST was a 24-center randomized clinical trial that enrolled participants older than 60 years with unstable DRFs from April 1, 2012, to December 31, 2016. Interventions: Participants selected casting or surgery. Patients who selected surgery were randomly assigned to volar lock plating, percutaneous pinning, or external fixation. Participants were stratified by chronologic age, number of comorbidities, and activity status. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire (MHQ) score assessed at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year. Partial correlation (PC) analysis adjusted for confounding. Results: The final cohort consisted of 293 participants (mean [SD] age, 71.1 [8.89] years; 255 [87%] female; 247 [85%] White), with 109 receiving casting and 184 receiving surgery. Increased chronologic age was associated with increased MHQ scores in the surgery group at all time points but decreased MHQ scores in the casting group at 12 months (mean [SD] score, -0.46 [0.21]; P = .03). High activity was associated with improved MHQ scores in the surgical cohort at 6 weeks (mean [SD] score, 12.21 [5.18]; PC = 0.27; P = .02) and 12 months (mean [SD] score, 13.25 [5.77]; PC = 0.17; P = .02). Comorbidities were associated with decreased MHQ scores at all time points in the casting group. Clinically significant differences in MHQ scores were associated with low physical activity, 4 or more comorbidities, or increased age by 15 years. Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective secondary analysis of WRIST, chronologic age was not associated with functional demand. These findings suggest that physicians should counsel active older adults with few comorbidities on earlier return to daily activities after surgery compared with casting. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01589692.

Association Between Daytime vs Overnight Digit Replantation and Surgical Outcomes.

Importance: Recent evidence suggests that select delayed replantation may not adversely affect digit survival; however, whether surgical timing (overnight or daytime) is associated with digit replantation outcomes is unknown. Objective: To assess whether digit survival, complication rate, and duration of surgery are associated with time of replantation. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective case series study included all replantations performed at a single tertiary referral academic center between January 1, 2000, and August 1, 2021. Data were analyzed between October 2, 2021, and January 1, 2022. Four daytime surgery intervals were selected based on literature review. Daytime replantations started within the intervals whereas overnight replantations began outside the intervals. For each case, the procedure difficulty score and the attending surgeon expertise score were calculated. Logistic and linear regressions adjusting for confounders including procedure difficulty score and expertise score were used to assess surgical timing and outcomes. Participants were adults (aged ≥18 years) undergoing digit replantations between January 2000 and August 2021 with at least 1-month follow-up. Replantation was defined as the reattachment of a completely amputated digit that necessitated anastomosis of both artery and vein. Exposures: Daytime or overnight digit replantation. Main Outcomes and Measures: Viable replanted digit at 1-month follow-up, number of complications, and duration of surgery. Results: A total of 98 patients (mean [SD] age, 39.5 [15.3] years; 136 [93%] men) and 147 digits met inclusion criteria. Overall success rate was 55%. Between 4 pm and 7 am, overnight replantations were associated with 0.4 fewer complications (ß, -0.4; 95% CI, -0.8 to -0.1) and 90.7 minutes shorter operative time (ß, -90.7; 95% CI, -173.6 to -7.7). A 1-point increase in surgeon expertise score was associated with 1.7 times increased odds of replantation success for all intervals (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.4; P = .002). There were no differences in digit survival by surgical time. Conclusions and Relevance: In this case series study of digit replantations, time of operation was not associated with replantation success. Overnight replantation was associated with fewer complications and shorter duration of surgery compared with daytime surgery. Results of this study suggest that overnight replantations may be performed with outcomes comparable to daytime replantations at a tertiary care academic center.

Comparative Effectiveness of Physical Therapy and Electrophysiotherapy for the Treatment of Lateral Epicondylitis: A Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lateral epicondylitis is a common enthesopathy, possibly caused by overuse and repetitive activity. Although nonoperative management is the primary approach for treating lateral epicondylitis, clinical guidelines and the literature fail to identify the most effective nonoperative treatment. Therefore, the authors conducted a network meta-analysis to compare the effectiveness of physical therapy and electrophysiotherapy treatments for the treatment of lateral epicondylitis. METHODS: The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus for peer-reviewed randomized controlled trials evaluating the effectiveness of physical therapy and electrophysiotherapy treatments. Data related to article characteristics and outcomes (grip strength and pain visual analog scale score) were collected. RESULTS: Twenty-three clinical trials including 1363 participants (mean age ± SD, 47.4 ± 7.5 years; 53.1 percent women) were included in this study. Pain visual analog scale demonstrated significant reductions in scores after treatment with magnetic field [mean difference (95 percent CI), -1.88 (-2.66 to -1.11)], exercise [-0.90 (-1.69 to -0.1)], and acoustic waves [-0.83 (-1.37 to -0.29)] compared with placebo. For grip strength, no treatment modality was found to be significantly effective. A sensitivity analysis that excluded studies with high publication bias and high degrees of heterogeneity produced similar results to the main analysis with the exception of statistically improved grip strength after light therapy [mean difference (95 percent CI), 5.38 (1.71 to 9.04)] and acoustic wave therapy [7.79 (2.44 to 13.15)]. CONCLUSIONS: Electrophysiotherapy treatments should be prioritized over physical therapy. Magnetic field therapy was associated with pain reduction, whereas acoustic wave and light therapy were associated with increased grip strength. CLINICAL QUESTION/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic, II.

Wide Local Excision with Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy for Digital Papillary Adenocarcinoma: A Case Report.

Digital papillary adenocarcinoma (DPA) is a rare but locally aggressive eccrine tumour that has metastatic potential and most frequently found in the upper extremity. It usually presents as an unremarkable swelling of the skin, commonly misdiagnosed as a benign lesion. We present a 67-year-old male who presented with a slowly growing mass of the right middle finger that was biopsied and diagnosed with DPA. The patient was treated with wide local excision (WLE) and sentinel lymph node biopsy by us during the same operative encounter. This report highlights the need for increased clinical vigilance to diagnose DPAs, and that WLE and sentinel lymph node biopsies can be safe and effective treatments offered. Level of Evidence: Level V (Therapeutic).

Long-Term Outcomes After Toe-To-Thumb Transfers for Burn Reconstruction in Children.

Children are one of the most vulnerable populations to burns, and hands are frequently burned anatomical structures. Restoring function in a severely burned pediatric hand is challenging. We present our experience with pediatric toe-to-thumb transfers for burn reconstruction. A retrospective review was conducted of all pediatric toe-to-thumb transfer patients between 2009 and 2014. Children younger than the age of 18 who underwent secondary reconstruction after electrical or thermal burn injuries with at least a 5-year follow-up were included. Functional outcomes were measured with the modified Kapandji score. Complications of the reconstructed hand as well as the donor foot were recorded. Four children with 10 toe-to-hand transfers (four great toes, two second toes, and two combined second-third toes) met the inclusion criteria. The average follow-up length was 104 months (range 60-144 months). Two children sustained thermal burn injuries and two sustained electrical burn injuries. Three children achieved opposition of the reconstructed toe-to-thumb transfer to the small finger (Kapandji score 5), and one child achieved opposition of the reconstructed toe-to-thumb transfer to the proximal phalanx of the middle finger, the only remaining finger (Kapandji score 3). No donor foot morbidities were noted postoperatively. Toe-to-thumb transfers should be considered the standard of care for thumb reconstruction in children with severe burn injuries of their hands to provide restoration of sensation, pinch, grasp, and opposition with minimal morbidity of the donor foot.

Variation in Surgeon Proficiency Scores and Association With Digit Replantation Outcomes.

Importance: Risk-adjusted variation in surgeon outcomes has been traditionally explained by surgeon volume and hospital infrastructure, yet it is unclear how a surgeon's operative proficiency directly contributes to their patients' outcomes. Objective: To assess the variation of surgeons' operative proficiency and investigate its association with surgical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case series was a retrospective analysis of all digit replantations and revascularizations at a single US university medical center between January 2000 and August 2020. Surgeons were assigned a proficiency score based on the expected procedure difficulty and outcomes from a sample of their cases. Surgeon proficiency scores were then used to determine associations with outcomes from subsequent cases. The expected difficulty of each case was calculated using a novel scoring system that applied pooled relative risks from a meta-analysis of risk factors for replantation and revascularization failure. Exposures: Digit replantation and revascularization. Main Outcomes and Measures: Digit survival at 1-month follow up (case success) and number of complications. Results: A total of 145 patients and 226 digits were treated by 11 surgeons with training in hand or microsurgery (mean [SD] age, 41.9 [15.2] years; 204 [90%] men); there were 116 replantations and 110 revascularizations. Surgeon proficiency scores ranged from 1.3 to 5.7, with a mean (SD) of 3.4 (1.4). Case success rates among surgeons varied from 20.0% to 90.5%, with a mean (SD) of 64.9%. Higher proficiency scores were associated with fewer case failures: each point increase was associated with 40% decreased odds of failure (odds ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38-0.94). Every 3-point increase in proficiency score was associated with 1 less complication (effect estimate, -0.29; 95% CI, -0.56 to 0.02). Surgeon proficiency score had a greater association with case failure than surgeon volume (16.7% vs 12.0%). The final model's association with case failure had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.93. Conclusions and Relevance: Operative proficiency varied widely among practicing surgeons and accounted for 17% of estimative ability for success of digit replantation and revascularization. Greater surgeon proficiency was associated with better outcomes, indicating that the value of surgical care may be optimized by improving surgeon proficiency.

Variability in the Use of Disposable Surgical Supplies: A Surgeon Survey and Life Cycle Analysis.

PURPOSE: A substantial amount of waste is generated during surgery, yet few studies have investigated this problem. Therefore, we conducted a multicenter survey to investigate how the variation in the use of disposable supplies contributes to the environmental and financial burdens of health care. METHODS: We created a questionnaire to identify differences in supply use and practice characteristics among hand surgeons who participated in the Wrist and Radius Injury Surgical Trial. We determined the average cumulative cost of 10 key surgical items based on the responses. Subsequently, we estimated the kilograms of carbon dioxide emitted during the life cycle of supplies, from raw material extraction to production and disposal, using economic input-output life cycle analysis. RESULTS: Thirty-five surgeons from 19 institutions responded to the survey (65% response rate). Based on the difference in costs between surgeons who used the fewest and the most supplies, we determined that expenditures and carbon dioxide emissions could decrease by $22.47 and 10.9 kg per procedure, respectively, with leaner use of 10 key items. Furthermore, assuming that surgeon variation in supply use is present in other surgical subspecialties, we estimated that $2.4 billion in savings and an 800.6 thousand metric ton reduction in carbon emissions could be achieved if all US surgeons reduced their supply use by this amount. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed considerable variations in the use of disposable supplies among hand surgeons, highlighting the need for evidence-based tools, policies, and education campaigns to reduce hospital waste across health care systems. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Optimal use of disposable supplies is necessary to reduce the cost and environmental burden of hand surgery care.

What Are the Tradeoffs in Outcomes after Casting Versus Surgery for Closed Extraarticular Distal Radius Fractures in Older Patients? A Statistical Learning Model.

BACKGROUND: Distal radius fractures (DRFs) are one of the most common major fractures. Despite their frequency, the tradeoffs in different outcomes after casting or surgery for closed extraarticular DRFs in older adults are unknown. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) For adults older than 60 years with closed extraarticular DRFs, what are the tradeoffs in outcomes for choosing casting versus surgery? (2) In what settings would surgery be preferred over casting? METHOD: This is a secondary analysis of data from the Wrist and Radius Injury Surgical Trial (WRIST), a randomized, multicenter clinical trial that enrolled patients from April 10, 2012 to December 31, 2016. For WRIST, researchers recruited patients older than 60 years who sustained closed extraarticular distal radius fractures from 24 sites in the United States, Canada, and Singapore. We conducted a secondary analysis using data from WRIST, which had longitudinal data from a robust collection of covariates for patients who underwent surgery and casting. Among the 296 patients recruited in the WRIST study, 59% (174) of patients (mean age 71 ± 9 years) with complete sociodemographic data and 12-month follow-up for each primary outcome were included in the main analysis. More patients underwent surgery than casting (72% [126 of 174] versus 28% [48 of 174]). Most sociodemographic variables were similar between the surgery and casting groups, except for age and volar tilt. The surgical cohort was composed of patients randomized to external fixation, closed reduction percutaneous pinning, or volar locking plate internal fixation. The casting cohort consisted of patients who elected to be treated with closed reduction and casting. A tree-based reinforcement statistical learning method was used to determine the best treatment, either surgery or casting, to maximize functional and esthetic outcomes while minimizing pain. Tree-based reinforcement learning is a statistical learning method to build an unsupervised decision tree within a causal inference framework that will identify useful variables and their cutoff values to tailor treatment assignment accordingly to achieve the best health outcome desired. The primary outcome was minimization of pain (12-month Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire pain subdomain score), maximization of grip strength, total ROM (supination and wrist arc of motion), and esthetics (12-month Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire esthetics subdomain score). RESULTS: Casting was the best treatment to reduce pain and maximize esthetics, whereas surgery maximized grip strength and ROM. When the patient favored gaining ROM over pain reduction (more than 80:20), surgery was the preferred treatment. When the patient prioritized the importance of grip strength over pain reduction (more than 70:30), surgery was also the preferred treatment. CONCLUSION: There are tradeoffs in outcomes after treating patients older than 60 years with closed extraarticular distal radius fractures with casting or surgery. When patients are attempting to balance minimizing pain and improving functional outcomes, unless they desire maximal functional recovery, casting may be the better treatment. Surgery may be beneficial if patients want to regain as much grip strength and ROM as possible, even with the possibility of having residual pain. These findings can be referenced for more concrete preoperative counseling and patient expectation management before treatment selection. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, therapeutic study.

Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Model Using Convolutional Neural Networks to Identify Scaphoid Fractures in Radiographs.

Importance: Scaphoid fractures are the most common carpal fracture, but as many as 20% are not visible (ie, occult) in the initial injury radiograph; untreated scaphoid fractures can lead to degenerative wrist arthritis and debilitating pain, detrimentally affecting productivity and quality of life. Occult scaphoid fractures are among the primary causes of scaphoid nonunions, secondary to delayed diagnosis. Objective: To develop and validate a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) that can reliably detect both apparent and occult scaphoid fractures from radiographic images. Design, Setting, and Participants: This diagnostic study used a radiographic data set compiled for all patients presenting to Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (Taipei, Taiwan) and Michigan Medicine (Ann Arbor) with possible scaphoid fractures between January 2001 and December 2019. This group was randomly split into training, validation, and test data sets. The images were passed through a detection model to crop around the scaphoid and were then used to train a DCNN model based on the EfficientNetB3 architecture to classify apparent and occult scaphoid fractures. Data analysis was conducted from January to October 2020. Exposures: A DCNN trained to discriminate radiographs with normal and fractured scaphoids. Main Outcomes and Measures: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity. Fracture localization was assessed using gradient-weighted class activation mapping. Results: Of the 11 838 included radiographs (4917 [41.5%] with scaphoid fracture; 6921 [58.5%] without scaphoid fracture), 8356 (70.6%) were used for training, 1177 (9.9%) for validation, and 2305 (19.5%) for testing. In the testing test, the first DCNN achieved an overall sensitivity and specificity of 87.1% (95% CI, 84.8%-89.2%) and 92.1% (95% CI, 90.6%-93.5%), respectively, with an AUROC of 0.955 in distinguishing scaphoid fractures from scaphoids without fracture. Gradient-weighted class activation mapping closely corresponded to visible fracture sites. The second DCNN achieved an overall sensitivity of 79.0% (95% CI, 70.6%-71.6%) and specificity of 71.6% (95% CI, 69.0%-74.1%) with an AUROC of 0.810 when examining negative cases from the first model. Two-stage examination identified 20 of 22 cases (90.9%) of occult fracture. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, DCNN models were trained to identify scaphoid fractures. This suggests that such models may be able to assist with radiographic detection of occult scaphoid fractures that are not visible to human observers and to reliably detect fractures of other small bones.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Ultrasonography in the Hand Clinic.

BACKGROUND: Despite previous studies demonstrating the benefit of office-based ultrasonography for musculoskeletal evaluation, many hand surgery clinics have yet to adopt this practice. The authors conducted a cost-benefit analysis of establishing an ultrasound machine in a hand clinic. METHODS: The authors used the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule, Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary, and Physician Compare National Downloadable File databases to estimate provider reimbursement and annual frequency of office-based upper extremity-related ultrasound procedures. Ultrasound machine cost, maintenance fees, and consumable supply prices were gleaned from the literature. The primary outcomes were net cost-benefit difference and benefit-cost ratio at 1 year, 5 years, and 10 years after implementation. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying factors that influence the net cost-benefit difference. RESULTS: The estimated total initial expense to establish ultrasonography in the clinic was $53,985. The overall cost-benefit difference was -$49,530 per practice at the end of the first year (benefit-cost ratio, 0.3), -$1049 after 5 years (benefit-cost ratio, 1.0), and $52,022 after 10 years (benefit-cost ratio, 1.4). Benefits primarily accrued because of physician reimbursements. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed machine price, annual procedure volume, and reimbursement rate as the most influential parameters in determining the benefit-cost ratio. Ultrasonography was cost beneficial when the machine price was less than $46,000 or if the billing frequency exceeded six times per week. A societal perspective analysis demonstrated a large net benefit of $218,162 after 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of office-based ultrasound imaging can result in a positive financial return on investment. Ultrasound machine cost and procedural volume were the most critical factors influencing benefit-cost ratio.

Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Diagnostic Probability of Scaphoid Fractures from Clinical Examinations: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Management of suspected scaphoid fractures includes repeated evaluation and casting in symptomatic patients with nondiagnostic radiographs. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, the authors compare the diagnostic accuracy of clinical examinations for scaphoid fractures and create a decision guide using Bayesian statistics. METHODS: The MEDLINE, Embase, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature databases were queried for studies that evaluated clinical index tests and their diagnostic accuracies for scaphoid fracture. Summary estimates were achieved by a bivariate random effects model and used in Bayes' theorem. The authors varied the scaphoid fracture prevalence for sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Fourteen articles with 22 index tests and 1940 patients were included. Anatomical snuffbox pain/tenderness (11 studies, 1363 patients), pain with axial loading (eight studies, 995 patients), and scaphoid tubercle tenderness (five studies, 953 patients) had sufficient data for pooled analysis. Anatomical snuffbox pain/tenderness was the most sensitive test (0.93; 95 percent CI, 0.87 to 0.97), and pain with axial loading was the most specific test (0.66; 95 percent CI, 0.41 to 0.85), but all three tests had lower estimated specificities compared with sensitivities. In the base case, the probability of fracture was approximately 60 percent when a patient presented with all three findings after acute wrist injury. CONCLUSIONS: The posttest probability of scaphoid fracture was sensitive to both prevalence and diagnostic accuracy of individual clinical index tests. In a population with a fracture prevalence of 20 percent, patients presenting with concurrent anatomical snuffbox pain/tenderness, pain on axial loading, and scaphoid tubercle tenderness may benefit from early advanced imaging to rule out scaphoid fractures if initial radiographs are nondiagnostic. CLINICAL QUESTION/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Diagnostic, II.

Cost-Effectiveness of Treatments after Closed Extraarticular Distal Radius Fractures in Older Adults from the WRIST Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: This study performs an economic analysis of volar locking plate, external fixation, percutaneous pinning, or casting in elderly patients with closed distal radius fractures. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the Wrist and Radius Injury Surgical Trial, a randomized, multicenter, international clinical trial with a parallel nonoperative casted group of patients older than 60 years with surgically indicated, extraarticular closed distal radius fractures. Thirty-Six-Item Short-Form Health Survey-converted utilities and total costs from Medicare were used to calculate quality-adjusted life-years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: Casted patients were self-selected and older (p < 0.001) than the randomized surgical cohorts, but otherwise similar in sociodemographic characteristics. Quality-adjusted life-years for percutaneous pinning were highest at 9.17 and external fixation lowest at 8.81. Total costs expended were $16,354 for volar locking plates, $16,012 for external fixation, $11,329 for percutaneous pinning, and $6837 for casting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for volar locking plates and external fixation were dominated by percutaneous pinning and casting. The ratio for percutaneous pinning compared to casting was $28,717. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed a 10, 5, 53, and 32 percent chance of volar locking plate, external fixation, percutaneous pinning, and casting, respectively, being cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. CONCLUSIONS: Casting is the most cost-effective treatment modality in the elderly with closed extraarticular distal radius fractures and should be considered before surgery. In unstable closed fractures, percutaneous pinning, which is the most cost-effective surgical intervention, may be considered before volar locking plates or external fixation.

Efficacy of Nonoperative Treatments for Lateral Epicondylitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lateral epicondylitis is a common overuse injury affecting approximately 1 to 3 percent of the population. Although symptoms may disappear spontaneously within 1 year, the clinical guidelines for conservative treatment are not clear. The authors' objective was to examine the outcomes of nonsurgical treatments for lateral epicondylitis through a meta-analysis and provide a treatment recommendation using the available evidence. METHODS: The authors searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases to identify primary research articles studying conservative treatments (electrophysiotherapy, physical therapy, and injections) for lateral epicondylitis. The authors included randomized controlled trials published in peer-reviewed journals. Data related to outcomes (pain, grip strength, Patient-Rated Tennis Elbow Evaluation score, and Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand score) and complications were extracted. RESULTS: Fifty-eight randomized controlled trials were included in the meta-analysis. Electrophysiotherapy was effective in improving pain [mean difference, -10.0 (95 percent CI, -13.8 to -6.1)], Patient-Rated Tennis Elbow Evaluation score [mean difference, -10.7 (95 percent CI, -16.3 to -5.0)], and Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand score [mean difference, -11.9 (95 percent CI, -15.8 to -7.9)]; and physical therapy improved pain [mean difference, -6.0 (95 percent CI, -9.7 to -2.3)] and Patient-Rated Tennis Elbow Evaluation scores [mean difference, -7.5 (95 percent CI, -11.8 to -3.2)] compared to placebo. Injections did not improve any outcome measures. Patients who received electrophysiotherapy and injections reported higher adverse effects than physical therapy patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who received electrophysiotherapy and physical therapy reported statistically and clinically improved scores in pain and function compared to placebo. Injections may put patients at higher risk for adverse effects compared to other conservative treatments. When managing lateral epicondylitis conservatively, electrophysiotherapy and physical therapy should be prioritized before other interventions. CLINICAL QUESTION/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic, I.