Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China.

China's progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty decarbonization pathways, combining the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credit model and the China-Fleet model. We find that the 2060 zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal for LDVs is achievable via electrification if the battery pack cost is under CNY483/kWh by 2050. However, an extra of CNY8.86 trillion internal subsidies is needed under pessimistic battery cost scenarios (CNY759/kWh in 2050) to eliminate 246 million tonnes of CO2-eq by 2050 ensuring over 80% market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2050. Moreover, the promotion of fuel cell electric vehicles is synergy with BEVs to mitigate the carbon abatement difficulties, decreasing up to 34% of the maximum marginal abatement internal investment.

Improving the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations with sales adjustment factors.

Larger vehicles, such as sports utility vehicles, consume more energy than cars. Their increasing popularity runs contrary to the goal of fuel economy regulations to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and can be explained by consumer preference and lower regulation stringency, which is due to footprint, truck classification, and the omission of heterogenous lifetime vehicle distance traveled among vehicle classes. This study shows that, for both the US and China, large vehicles travel more, last longer, and are owned by higher income consumers. This means large vehicles and their high-income owners use more fuel and emit more pollutants than represented by current policy and thus raises both policy effectiveness and energy equity concerns. We propose and estimate Sales Adjustment Factors that weigh fuel economy standards based on vehicle lifetime usage and demonstrate the resultant significant improvements in the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations.

Life cycle CO2 emissions for the new energy vehicles in China drawing on the reshaped survival pattern.

Promoting new energy vehicles (NEVs) is the key to achieving net-zero emissions in the transportation sector. NEVs' total life cycle CO2 emissions are mainly determined by average vehicle lifespan, annual mileage traveled, energy carbon intensity and energy mix in the production stage. Current studies mainly adopt assumptions about NEVs' average lifespan due to limited available data. This paper expands on the previous studies by examining the NEVs' age and distribution based on the national representative China Compulsory Traffic Accident Liability Insurance for Motor Vehicles (CTALI) database from 2018 to 2020. Then, the survival patterns and lifespan of NEVs are assessed using Weibull distribution. New energy passenger vehicles' life cycle CO2 emissions are further evaluated based on the reshaped representative survival patterns. The results show that there are significant differences in survival patterns between conventional vehicles and NEVs. NEVs generally show a shorter average lifespan compared with conventional vehicles. Among NEVs, the average lifespan of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is better than that of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The survival patterns of several types of electric vehicles (including passenger battery electric vehicles, non-operating light battery electric buses, and light battery electric trucks) do not have a stable period in their first few years of operation. The life cycle assessment results show that the total life cycle CO2 emissions of passenger BEVs and PHEVs are lower than those of conventional vehicles. However, the short lifespan dramatically increases the passenger BEV and PHEV total life cycle CO2 emissions per kilometer, resulting in passenger BEV total life cycle CO2 emissions per kilometer being higher than those of conventional vehicles.

China's vehicle electrification impacts on sales, fuel use, and battery material demand through 2050: Optimizing consumer and industry decisions.

The promotion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is pivotal to China's carbon neutrality strategy. Therefore, it is important to understand the vehicle market evolution and its impacts in terms of costs, sales, industry fuel economy, and PEV's battery material demand. By examining vehicle technologies, cost, policy incentives, infrastructure, and driver behavior, this study quantitatively projects the dynamics of China's passenger vehicle market from 2020 to 2050 under multiple technology evolution scenarios. By 2050, battery electric vehicles could gain significant market share-as much as 30.4%-64.6%; and the industry's sales-weighted average fuel consumption could reach 1.81-3.11 L/100 km. Cumulative battery demand from PEVs could soar to over 700 GWh by 2050, whereas battery recycling alone could satisfy about 60% of the demand by 2050. The key metal supplies-lithium, cobalt, and nickel-for China's PEV market are projected, and nickel should be concerned more over the coming decades.

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy.

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.