RESUMO
The continued evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has led to the emergence of numerous sublineages with different patterns of evasion from neutralizing antibodies. We investigated neutralizing activity in immune sera from individuals vaccinated with SARS-CoV-2 wild-type spike (S) glycoprotein-based COVID-19 mRNA vaccines after subsequent breakthrough infection with Omicron BA.1, BA.2, or BA.4/BA.5 to study antibody responses against sublineages of high relevance. We report that exposure of vaccinated individuals to infections with Omicron sublineages, and especially with BA.4/BA.5, results in a boost of Omicron BA.4.6, BF.7, BQ.1.1, and BA.2.75 neutralization, but does not efficiently boost neutralization of sublineages BA.2.75.2 and XBB. Accordingly, we found in in silico analyses that with occurrence of the Omicron lineage a large portion of neutralizing B-cell epitopes were lost, and that in Omicron BA.2.75.2 and XBB less than 12% of the wild-type strain epitopes are conserved. In contrast, HLA class I and class II presented T-cell epitopes in the S glycoprotein were highly conserved across the entire evolution of SARS-CoV-2 including Alpha, Beta, and Delta and Omicron sublineages, suggesting that CD8+ and CD4+ T-cell recognition of Omicron BQ.1.1, BA.2.75.2, and XBB may be largely intact. Our study suggests that while some Omicron sublineages effectively evade B-cell immunity by altering neutralizing antibody epitopes, S protein-specific T-cell immunity, due to the very nature of the polymorphic cell-mediated immune, response is likely to remain unimpacted and may continue to contribute to prevention or limitation of severe COVID-19 manifestation.
RESUMO
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is leading to the discovery of hundreds of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants on a daily basis. While most variants do not impact the course of the pandemic, some variants pose a significantly increased risk when the acquired mutations allow better evasion of antibody neutralisation in previously infected or vaccinated subjects or increased transmissibility. Early detection of such high risk variants (HRVs) is paramount for the proper management of the pandemic. However, experimental assays to determine immune evasion and transmissibility characteristics of new variants are resource-intensive and time-consuming, potentially leading to delays in appropriate responses by decision makers. Here we present a novel in silico approach combining spike (S) protein structure modelling and large protein transformer language models on S protein sequences to accurately rank SARS-CoV-2 variants for immune escape and fitness potential. These metrics can be combined into an automated Early Warning System (EWS) capable of evaluating new variants in minutes and risk-monitoring variant lineages in near real-time. The system accurately pinpoints the putatively dangerous variants by selecting on average less than 0.3% of the novel variants each week. With only the S protein nucleotide sequence as input, the EWS detects HRVs earlier and with better precision than baseline metrics such as the growth metric (which requires real-world observations) or random sampling. Notably, Omicron BA.1 was flagged by the EWS on the day its sequence was made available. Additionally, our immune escape and fitness metrics were experimentally validated using in vitro pseudovirus-based virus neutralisation test (pVNT) assays and binding assays. The EWS flagged as potentially dangerous all 16 variants (Alpha-Omicron BA.1/2/4/5) designated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) with an average lead time of more than one and a half months ahead of them being designated as such. One-Sentence SummaryA COVID-19 Early Warning System combining structural modelling with machine learning to detect and monitor high risk SARS-CoV-2 variants, identifying all 16 WHO designated variants on average more than one and a half months in advance by selecting on average less than 0.3% of the weekly novel variants.
