RESUMO
Limited evidence exists on whether initial viral load and patient characteristics can predict unfavorable outcomes in future outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This retrospective cohort study examined the relationship between the initial viral load, patient characteristics, and outcomes during the second-wave COVID-19 outbreak in West Sumatra, Indonesia. We analyzed the COVID-19 patients admitted to a secondary hospital between the 1 June 2021 and the 31 August 2021. The initial viral load was determined using the real-time quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) cycle threshold (Ct) value, categorized as low (LIVL, Ct > 20) or high (HIVL, Ct ≤ 20). Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the initial viral load, age, sex, vaccination status, comorbidities, and outcomes, including disease severity, hospital stay length, ICU admission, invasive ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the diagnostic performance of the initial Ct values in predicting COVID-19 outcomes. The study included 373 patients (median age [range]: 48 [0-94]; male: 40.21%; HIVL: 34.85%; unvaccinated: 86.06%; comorbidities: 52.01%). The HIVL patients significantly had a lower risk of developing severe/critical outcomes (OR: 0.506; 95% CI: 0.310-0.825; p = 0.006) and needing invasive ventilation (OR: 0.290; CI: 0.098-0.854; p = 0.025). The Ct value used to indicate severe/critical outcomes was 23.57. More severe outcomes were significantly observed in LIVL patients, those aged >60 years, males, unvaccinated individuals, and those with comorbidities. This study emphasizes the importance of primary prevention, early screening, and immediate care for COVID-19 in saving lives.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVES: The second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Indonesia, during which the Delta variant predominated, took place after a vaccination program had been initiated in the country. This study was conducted to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on unfavorable clinical outcomes including hospitalization, severe COVID-19, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death using a real-world model. METHODS: This single-center retrospective cohort study involved patients with COVID-19 aged ≥18 years who presented to the COVID-19 emergency room at a secondary referral teaching hospital between June 1, 2021 and August 31, 2021. We used a binary logistic regression model to assess the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on unfavorable clinical outcomes, with age, sex, and comorbidities as confounding variables. RESULTS: A total of 716 patients were included, 32.1% of whom were vaccinated. The elderly participants (≥65 years) had the lowest vaccine coverage among age groups. Vaccination had an effectiveness of 50% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25 to 66) for preventing hospitalization, 97% (95% CI, 77 to 99) for preventing severe COVID-19, 95% (95% CI, 56 to 99) for preventing ICU admission, and 90% (95% CI, 22 to 99) for preventing death. Interestingly, patients with type 2 diabetes had a 2-fold to 4-fold elevated risk of unfavorable outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults, COVID-19 vaccination has a moderate preventive impact on hospitalization but a high preventive impact on severe COVID-19, ICU admission, and death. The authors suggest that relevant parties increase COVID-19 vaccination coverage, especially in the elderly population.
