Evaluation of performance of bacterial culture of feces and serum ELISA across stages of Johne's disease in cattle using a Bayesian latent class model.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of bacterial culture of feces and serum ELISA to correctly identify cows with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) at heavy, light, and non-fecal-shedding levels. A total of 29,785 parallel test results from bacterial culture of feces and serum ELISA were collected from 17 dairy herds in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. Samples were obtained from adult cows from dairy herds enrolled for up to 10 yr in the National Johne's Disease Demonstration Herd Project. A Bayesian latent class model was fitted to estimate the probabilities that bacterial culture of feces (using 72-h sedimentation or 30-min centrifugation methods) and serum ELISA results correctly identified cows as high positive, low positive, or negative given that cows were heavy, light, and non-shedders, respectively. The model assumed that no gold standard test was available and conditional independency existed between diagnostic tests. The estimated conditional probabilities that bacterial culture of feces correctly identified heavy shedders, light shedders, and non-shedders were 70.9, 32.0, and 98.5%, respectively. The same values for the serum ELISA were 60.6, 18.7, and 99.5%, respectively. Differences in diagnostic test performance were observed among states. These results improve the interpretation of results from bacterial culture of feces and serum ELISA for detection of MAP and MAP antibody (respectively), which can support on-farm infection control decisions and can be used to evaluate disease-testing strategies, taking into account the accuracy of these tests.

Quantitative risk assessment of the likeihood of introducing porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus into New Zealand through the importation of pig meat.

A quantitative model was developed to estimate the likelihood of an incursion of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) into New Zealand through the importation of fresh consumer-ready cuts of pig meat. A sensitivity analysis of all the inputs used in this model illustrated the importance of correctly modelling the available 'dose-response' data, and a mechanistic Beta-Poisson model was shown to be the most appropriate method for this in the authors' assessment. The output of this model predicts an average of approximately 1,200 years between PRRSV introductions resulting in primary infections in New Zealand. Given the uncertainties in the model, there is 95% confidence that this time period ranges from 52 to 6,200 years. The values chosen in this model are considered to provide a conservative estimate of the likelihood of introducing PRRSV into New Zealand via the importation of fresh pork.

Modelling canine leishmaniasis spread to non-endemic areas of Europe.

Expansion of sandflies and increasing pet travel have raised concerns about canine leishmaniasis (CanL) spread to new areas of Europe. This study aimed to estimate the probability of CanL introduction and persistence following movements of infected dogs. Stochastic modelling was used to estimate the probabilities of (1) CanL infection during travels or imports of infected dogs (P inf and P infCA, respectively), (2) CanL persistence in a dog network with sandflies after introduction of an infected dog (P per), and (3) persistence in a CanL-free region (P per region) for N dogs moving between endemic and free regions. Different mitigation measures (MMs) were assessed. P inf [7.8%, 95% predictive interval (PI) 2.6-16.4] and P per (72.0%, 95% PI 67.8-76.0) were reduced by use of repellent, vaccine, prophylactic medication, and insecticide, in decreasing order of effectiveness. Testing and exclusion of positive dogs was most effective in reducing P per region for a small N. The spread of CanL to CanL-free areas with sandflies is thus likely, but can be reduced by MMs.

A systematic review of the efficacy of prophylactic control measures for naturally occurring canine leishmaniosis. Part II: topically applied insecticide treatments and prophylactic medications.

The objective of this study was to systematically review the efficacy of topically applied insecticide treatments of dogs (impregnated collars, spot-ons), and prophylactic medications to prevent natural Leishmania infantum (L. infantum) infection in dogs. Randomised controlled trials (RCT), non-randomised clinical trials, cohort studies and case-control studies that investigated preventive efficacy for natural L. infantum infection in dogs were eligible for inclusion. Two review authors independently assessed each study against the inclusion criteria, independently extracted relevant data from all included studies and assessed the risk of methodological shortcomings in each individual study. The odds ratio (OR) and absolute risk reduction (ARR) for dichotomous outcomes and mean difference for continuous outcomes were calculated. Meta-analysis was not performed due to heterogeneity of the studies identified. The search yielded 937 articles, from which 84 full text articles were selected for second stage screening. Eleven eligible studies were included; four on collars (two RCTs), three on spot-ons (two RCTs - one looking at two different dosing regimens), three on prophylactic medications (all RCTs) and one on both collars and spot-ons summarised in this paper. All of the studies were considered to be at a high risk of methodological shortcomings, with the exception of one spot-on study which was considered to be at an unclear risk of methodological shortcomings. Deltamethrin collars, 65% permethrin, 10% imidacloprid with 50% permethrin spot-ons and domperidone prophylactic medication tended to significantly reduce the proportion of dogs infected with L. infantum based on either parasitological or serological evidence.

A systematic review of the efficacy of prophylactic control measures for naturally-occurring canine leishmaniosis, part I: vaccinations.

Canine leishmaniosis (CanL) is an important zoonotic disease; however, the efficacy of available vaccines for the prevention of naturally-occurring Leishmania infantum (L. infantum) infection in dogs remains unclear. The objective of this review was to determine the efficacy of currently available vaccines to prevent naturally-occurring L. infantum infection in dogs. Four bibliographic databases (CAB Direct 2011, Web of Science 2011, U.S. National Library of Medicine 2011 and Literatura Latino Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde) were searched along with eight sets of conference proceedings and the International Veterinary Information Service (IVIS) database, from 1980 to November 2012. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), non-randomised clinical trials (NRCTs), cohort studies and case-control studies that investigated vaccine efficacy for natural L. infantum infection in dogs were eligible for inclusion. Two review authors independently assessed each study against the inclusion criteria, independently extracted relevant data from all included studies and assessed the risk of methodological shortcomings in each individual study. The odds ratio (OR) and absolute risk reduction (ARR) for dichotomous outcomes and mean difference for continuous outcomes were calculated. Meta-analysis was not performed due to heterogeneity of the studies identified. The search was conducted for all mitigations for CanL and yielded the title and abstract of 937 articles, from which 84 articles were screened based on full text. Twelve studies on vaccinations (five RCTs, seven NRCTs) were identified. Ten studies were at a high risk of methodological shortcomings, whilst two were at an unclear risk. The use of 200 µg ALM protein, Leishmune(®), CaniLeish(®), LiESAp with MDP, and ALM with BCG tended to significantly reduce the proportion of dogs infected with L. infantum based on either parasitological or serological evidence. The use of lyophilized protein vaccine significantly increased the proportion of dogs infected with L. infantum based on either parasitological or serological evidence. There is peer-reviewed evidence that control measures are effective in preventing CanL with the results suggesting that between 6 and 54% of infections could be prevented with vaccination. However, this evidence is based on a small number of RCTs, all of which are either at high or unclear risk of methodological shortcomings. Well-designed, adequately powered and properly reported randomised clinical trials are needed to clearly establish efficacy of vaccines as CanL control measures.

Compartmentalisation in aquaculture production systems.

Compartmentalisation is a new tool for disease management within a country. In aquaculture, the successful application of compartmentalisation is largely dependent on the system of production and the epidemiology of the disease(s) for which the compartment is being defined. Therefore, compartmentalisation may not be universally applicable across all systems and diseases. The paper examines the implementation of the concept, providing examples of specific industries, and discusses the application of hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) to the biosecurity of the system. The role of compartmentalisation in the management of aquaculture disease emergencies is also discussed.

Scenario analysis of changes in consumption of dairy products caused by a hypothetical causal link between Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis and Crohn's disease.

Johne's disease is an infectious disease of cattle caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Crohn's disease (CD) is a human disease of unknown etiology that is characterized by chronic bowel inflammation. No causal link has been scientifically established between MAP and CD, but it is important to understand possible impacts on society should such a causal link be established. The goal of this paper is to analyze the implications and the possible economic impacts that finding such a link would have on milk demand in the dairy industry and to provide a framework for further discussion among stakeholders. Three scenarios were developed based on the effectiveness of possible risk-mitigation strategies. In the first scenario, it was assumed that an effective strategy exists; therefore, a negligible demand decrease in the consumption of dairy products was expected. In the second scenario, it was assumed that new risk mitigation would need to be implemented to minimize the health hazard for humans. In this case, a small milk demand decrease was expected, but larger demand decreases were also possible. The third scenario assumed that no fully effective risk mitigation was available, and this resulted in a considerable demand decrease and a potential reduction in milk supply as a result of regulatory measures. A milk demand reduction of 1 or 5% resulted in a reduction in consumer surplus of $600 million and $2.9 billion, and a reduction in dairy farm income of $270 million and $1.3 billion, respectively. A decrease in milk supply would cause a slight increase in total losses, but would cause the greatest losses to test-positive dairy farms. Given the current scientific knowledge about MAP and CD, we conclude that if a link were established, it is most likely that the first or second scenario would occur. Thus, consumer response and economic consequences to the discovery of such a link are expected to be limited, but could be large if the consumer's perception of risk is large or if risk-mitigation strategies were ineffective.