Temporal Evolution of Ascending Aortic Aneurysm Wall Stress Predicts All-Cause Mortality.

OBJECTIVES: Diameter-based risk stratification for elective repair of ascending aortic aneurysm fails to prevent type A dissection in many patients. Aneurysm wall stresses may contribute to risk prediction; however, rates of wall stress change over time are poorly understood. Our objective was to examine aneurysm wall stress changes over three to five years and subsequent all-cause mortality. METHODS: Male veterans with <5.5-cm ascending aortic aneurysms and computed tomography at baseline and 3 to 5-years follow-up underwent three-dimensional aneurysm model construction. Peak circumferential and longitudinal wall stresses at systole were calculated using finite element analysis. Temporal trends were assessed by mixed-effects modelling. Changes in aortic wall stresses, diameter, and length over time were evaluated as predictors of subsequent 3-year all-cause mortality by Cox proportional hazards modelling. RESULTS: Sixty-two male veterans were included in the study. Yearly changes in geometric and biomechanical measures were 0.12 mm/yr (95% CI, 0.04-0.20) for aortic diameter, 0.41 mm/yr (0.12-0.71) for aortic length, 1.19 kPa/yr (-5.94-8.33) for peak circumferential stress, and 0.48 kPa/yr (-3.89-4.84) for peak longitudinal stress. Yearly change in peak circumferential stress was significantly associated with hazard of death-hazard ratio for peak circumferential stress growth per 10 kPa/yr, 1.27 (95% CI, 1.02-1.60; p = 0.037); hazard ratio for peak circumferential stress growth ≥ 32 kPa/yr, 8.47 (95% CI, 2.42-30; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this population of nonsurgical aneurysm patients, large temporal changes in peak circumferential stress, but not aortic diameter or length, was associated with all-cause mortality. Biomechanical stress and stress changes over time may be beneficial as additional risk factors for elective surgery in small aneurysms.

Height and body surface area versus wall stress for stratification of mid-term outcomes in ascending aortic aneurysm.

Objectives: Current diameter-based guidelines for ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms (aTAA) do not consistently predict risk of dissection/rupture. ATAA wall stresses may enhance risk stratification independent of diameter. The relation of wall stresses and diameter indexed to height and body surface area (BSA) is unknown. Our objective was to compare aTAA wall stresses with indexed diameters in relation to all-cause mortality at 3.75 years follow-up. Methods: Finite element analyses were performed in a veteran population with aortas ≥ 4.0 cm. Three-dimensional geometries were reconstructed from computed tomography with models accounting for pre-stress geometries. A fiber-embedded hyperelastic material model was applied to obtain wall stress distributions under systolic pressure. Peak wall stresses were compared across guideline thresholds for diameter/BSA and diameter/height. Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality and surgical aneurysm repair were estimated using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of 253 veterans, 54 (21 %) had aneurysm repair at 3.75 years. Indexed diameter alone would have prompted repair at baseline in 17/253 (6.7 %) patients, including only 4/230 (1.7 %) with diameter < 5.5 cm. Peak wall stresses did not significantly differ across guideline thresholds for diameter/BSA (circumferential: p = 0.15; longitudinal: p = 0.18), but did differ for diameter/height (circumferential: p = 0.003; longitudinal: p = 0.048). All-cause mortality was independently associated with peak longitudinal stresses (p = 0.04). Peak longitudinal stresses were best predicted by diameter (c-statistic = 0.66), followed by diameter/height (c-statistic = 0.59), and diameter/BSA (c-statistic = 0.55). Conclusions: Diameter/height improved stratification of peak wall stresses compared to diameter/BSA. Peak longitudinal stresses predicted all-cause mortality independent of age and indexed diameter and may aid risk stratification for aTAA adverse events.

Sex differences in ascending aortic size reporting and growth on chest computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging.

PURPOSE: Diameter-based guidelines for prophylactic repair of ascending aortic aneurysms have led to routine aortic evaluation in chest imaging. Despite sex differences in aneurysm outcomes, there is little understanding of sex-specific aortic growth rates. Our objective was to evaluate sex-specific temporal changes in radiologist-reported aortic size as well as sex differences in aortic reporting. METHOD: In this cohort study, we queried radiology reports of chest computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging at an academic medical center from 1994 to 2022, excluding type A dissection. Aortic diameter was extracted using a custom text-processing algorithm. Growth rates were estimated using mixed-effects modeling with fixed terms for sex, age, and imaging modality, and patient-level random intercepts. Sex, age, and modality were evaluated as predictors of aortic reporting by logistic regression. RESULTS: This study included 89,863 scans among 46,622 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 64 [52-73]; 22,437 women [48%]). Aortic diameter was recorded in 14% (12,722/89,863 reports). Temporal trends were analyzed in 7194 scans among 1998 patients (age, 68 [60-75]; 677 women [34%]) with ≥2 scans. Aortic growth rate was significantly higher in women (0.22 mm/year [95% confidence interval 0.17-0.28] vs. 0.09 mm/year [0.06-0.13], respectively). Aortic reporting was significantly less common in women (odds ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.52-0.56; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: While aortic growth rates were small overall, women had over twice the growth rate of men. Aortic dimensions were much less frequently reported in women than men. Sex-specific standardized assessment of aortic measurements may be needed to address sex differences in aneurysm outcomes.

AORTA Gene: Polygenic prediction improves detection of thoracic aortic aneurysm.

Background: Thoracic aortic disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the US, and aortic diameter is a heritable contributor to risk. Could a polygenic prediction of ascending aortic diameter improve detection of aortic aneurysm? Methods: Deep learning was used to measure ascending thoracic aortic diameter in 49,939 UK Biobank participants. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was conducted in 39,524 participants and leveraged to build a 1.1 million-variant polygenic score with PRScs-auto. Aortic diameter prediction models were built with the polygenic score ("AORTA Gene") and without it. The models were tested in a held-out set of 4,962 UK Biobank participants and externally validated in 5,469 participants from Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGB), 1,298 from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), and 610 participants from All of Us. Results: In each test set, the AORTA Gene model explained more of the variance in thoracic aortic diameter compared to clinical factors alone: 39.9% (95% CI 37.8-42.0%) vs 29.2% (95% CI 27.1-31.4%) in UK Biobank, 36.5% (95% CI 34.4-38.5%) vs 32.5% (95% CI 30.4-34.5%) in MGB, 41.8% (95% CI 37.7-45.9%) vs 33.0% (95% CI 28.9-37.2%) in FHS, and 34.9% (95% CI 28.8-41.0%) vs 28.9% (95% CI 22.9-35.0%) in All of Us. AORTA Gene had a greater AUROC for identifying diameter ≥4cm in each test set: 0.834 vs 0.765 (P=7.3E-10) in UK Biobank, 0.808 vs 0.767 in MGB (P=4.5E-12), 0.856 vs 0.818 in FHS (P=8.5E-05), and 0.827 vs 0.791 (P=7.8E-03) in All of Us. Conclusions: Genetic information improved estimation of thoracic aortic diameter when added to clinical risk factors. Larger and more diverse cohorts will be needed to develop more powerful and equitable scores.

Development of a Machine Learning Model of Postoperative Acute Kidney Injury Using Non-Invasive Time-Sensitive Intraoperative Predictors.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major postoperative complication that lacks established intraoperative predictors. Our objective was to develop a prediction model using preoperative and high-frequency intraoperative data for postoperative AKI. In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated 77,428 operative cases at a single academic center between 2016 and 2022. A total of 11,212 cases with serum creatinine (sCr) data were included in the analysis. Then, 8519 cases were randomly assigned to the training set and the remainder to the validation set. Fourteen preoperative and twenty intraoperative variables were evaluated using elastic net followed by hierarchical group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The training set was 56% male and had a median [IQR] age of 62 (51-72) and a 6% AKI rate. Retained model variables were preoperative sCr values, the number of minutes meeting cutoffs for urine output, heart rate, perfusion index intraoperatively, and the total estimated blood loss. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85). At a score threshold of 0.767, specificity was 77% and sensitivity was 74%. A web application that calculates the model score is available online. Our findings demonstrate the utility of intraoperative time series data for prediction problems, including a new potential use of the perfusion index. Further research is needed to evaluate the model in clinical settings.

Aortic area/height ratio, peak wall stresses, and outcomes in veterans with tricuspid versus bicuspid aortic valve-associated ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms.

BACKGROUND: In ascending thoracic aortic aneurysm risk stratification, aortic area/height ratio is a reasonable alternative to maximum diameter. Biomechanically, aortic dissection may be initiated by wall stress exceeding wall strength. Our objective was to evaluate the association between aortic area/height and peak aneurysm wall stresses in relation to valve morphology and 3-year all-cause mortality. METHODS: Finite element analysis was performed on 270 ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms (46 associated with bicuspid and 224 with tricuspid aortic valves) in veterans. Three-dimensional aneurysm geometries were reconstructed from computed tomography and models developed accounting for prestress geometries. Fiber-embedded hyperelastic material model was applied to obtain aneurysm wall stresses during systole. Correlations of aortic area/height ratio and peak wall stresses were compared across valve types. Area/height ratio was evaluated across peak wall stress thresholds obtained from proportional hazards models of 3-year all-cause mortality, with aortic repair treated as a competing risk. RESULTS: Aortic area/height 10 cm2/m or greater coincided with 23/34 (68%) 5.0 to 5.4 cm and 20/24 (83%) 5.5 cm or greater aneurysms. Area/height correlated weakly with peak aneurysm stresses: for tricuspid valves, r = 0.22 circumferentially and r = 0.24 longitudinally; and for bicuspid valves, r = 0.42 circumferentially and r = 0.14 longitudinally. Age and peak longitudinal stress, but not area/height, were independent predictors of all-cause mortality (age: hazard ratio, 2.20 per 9-year increase, P = .013; peak longitudinal stress: hazard ratio, 1.78 per 73-kPa increase, P = .035). CONCLUSIONS: Area/height was more predictive of high circumferential stresses in bicuspid than tricuspid valve aneurysms, but similarly less predictive of high longitudinal stresses in both valve types. Peak longitudinal stress, not area/height, independently predicted all-cause mortality. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Ascending thoracic aortic aneurysm elongation occurs in parallel with dilatation in a nonsurgical population.

OBJECTIVES: Rapid diameter growth is a criterion for ascending thoracic aortic aneurysm repair; however, there are sparse data on aneurysm elongation rate. The purpose of this study was to assess aortic elongation rates in nonsyndromic, nonsurgical aneurysms to understand length dynamics and correlate with aortic diameter over time. METHODS: Patients with <5.5-cm aneurysms and computed tomography angiography imaging at baseline and 3-5 years follow-up underwent patient-specific three-dimensional aneurysm reconstruction using MeVisLab. Aortic length was measured along the vessel centreline between the annulus and aortic arch. Maximum aneurysm diameter was determined from imaging in a plane normal to the vessel centreline. Average rates of aneurysm growth were evaluated using the longest available follow-up. RESULTS: Over the follow-up period, the mean aortic length for 67 identified patients increased from 118.2 (95% confidence interval: 115.4-121.1) mm to 120.2 (117.3-123.0) mm (P = 0.02) and 15 patients (22%) experienced a change in length of ≥5% from baseline. The mean annual growth rate for length [0.38 (95% confidence interval: 0.11-0.65) mm/year] was correlated with annual growth rate for diameter [0.1 (0.03-0.2) mm/year] (rho = 0.30, P = 0.01). Additionally, annual percentage change in length [0.3 (0.1-0.5)%/year] was similar to percentage change in diameter [0.2 (0.007-0.4)%/year, P = 0.95]. CONCLUSIONS: Aortic length increases in parallel with aortic diameter at a similar percentage rate. Further work is needed to identify whether elongation rate is associated with dissection risk. Such studies may provide insight into why patients with aortic diameters smaller than surgical guidelines continue to experience dissection events.

Association of 3-Year All-Cause Mortality and Peak Wall Stresses of Ascending Thoracic Aortic Aneurysms in Veterans.

Risk of aortic dissection in ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms is not sufficiently captured by size-based metrics. From a biomechanical perspective, dissection may be initiated when wall stress exceeds wall strength. Our objective was to assess the association between aneurysm peak wall stresses and 3-year all-cause mortality. Finite element analysis was performed in 273 veterans with chest computed tomography for surveillance of ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms. Three-dimensional geometries were reconstructed and models developed accounting for prestress geometries. A fiber-embedded hyperelastic material model was applied to obtain circumferential and longitudinal wall stresses under systolic pressure. Patients were followed up to 3 years following the scan to assess aneurysm repair and all-cause mortality. Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards were estimated for all-cause mortality based on age, aortic diameter, and peak wall stresses, treating aneurysm repair as a competing risk. When accounting for age, subdistribution hazard of mortality was not significantly increased by peak circumferential stresses (p = 0.30) but was significantly increased by peak longitudinal stresses (p = 0.008). Aortic diameter did not significantly increase subdistribution hazard of mortality in either model (circumferential model: p = 0.38; longitudinal model: p = 0.30). The effect of peak longitudinal stresses on subdistribution hazard of mortality was maximized at a binary threshold of 355kPa, which captured 34 of 212(16%) patients with diameter <5 cm, 11 of 36(31%) at 5.0-5.4 cm, and 11 of 25(44%) at ≥5.5 cm. Aneurysm peak longitudinal stresses stratified by age and diameter were associated with increased hazard of 3-year all-cause mortality in a veteran cohort. Risk prediction may be enhanced by considering peak longitudinal stresses.

Powassan Virus Neuropathology and Genomic Diversity in Patients With Fatal Encephalitis.

BACKGROUND: Powassan virus (POWV) is an emerging cause of severe encephalitis; very little is known about human pathogenicity due to challenges in diagnosis and viral RNA recovery. We present 3 patients with fatal encephalitis due to POWV lineage II (deer tick virus). METHODS: We obtained 27 unique samples, including from brain biopsy and autopsy, and used metagenomic sequencing, quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, and a newly developed CRISPR-based diagnostic assay to perform the first detailed characterization of POWV compartmentalization and genomics between and within human subjects. RESULTS: In all 3 patients, imaging and histopathology findings were notable for profound cerebellar involvement. All patients were initially diagnosed with POWV by metagenomic sequencing, and 2 of the 3 had negative clinical testing by serology. We detected POWV RNA in 13 clinical samples; levels were highest in the cerebellum, and there was very little involvement of peripheral tissue. We assembled complete POWV genomes from 8 samples, providing unique information about the strains of POWV lineage II (deer tick virus) that infect humans. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the utility of molecular assays for detecting POWV infection, including in seronegative patients, and nominate viral genomic features that may relate to human infection and neuropathogenicity. The cerebellum was identified as a key target POWV in fatal infection, by radiological and histopathological findings as well as molecular testing.

Rapid Detection of Powassan Virus in a Patient With Encephalitis by Metagenomic Sequencing.

We describe a patient with severe and progressive encephalitis of unknown etiology. We performed rapid metagenomic sequencing from cerebrospinal fluid and identified Powassan virus, an emerging tick-borne flavivirus that has been increasingly detected in the United States.