Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1).

Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R = 1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes well-defined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.

Heaps' Law and Heaps functions in tagged texts: evidences of their linguistic relevance.

We study the relationship between vocabulary size and text length in a corpus of 75 literary works in English, authored by six writers, distinguishing between the contributions of three grammatical classes (or 'tags,' namely, nouns, verbs and others), and analyse the progressive appearance of new words of each tag along each individual text. We find that, as prescribed by Heaps' Law, vocabulary sizes and text lengths follow a well-defined power-law relation. Meanwhile, the appearance of new words in each text does not obey a power law, and is on the whole well described by the average of random shufflings of the text. Deviations from this average, however, are statistically significant and show systematic trends across the corpus. Specifically, we find that the appearance of new words along each text is predominantly retarded with respect to the average of random shufflings. Moreover, different tags add systematically distinct contributions to this tendency, with verbs and others being respectively more and less retarded than the mean trend, and nouns following instead the overall mean. These statistical systematicities are likely to point to the existence of linguistically relevant information stored in the different variants of Heaps' Law, a feature that is still in need of extensive assessment.

Fat tails and black swans: Exact results for multiplicative processes with resets.

We consider a class of multiplicative processes which, added with stochastic reset events, give origin to stationary distributions with power-law tails-ubiquitous in the statistics of social, economic, and ecological systems. Our main goal is to provide a series of exact results on the dynamics and asymptotic behavior of increasingly complex versions of a basic multiplicative process with resets, including discrete and continuous-time variants and several degrees of randomness in the parameters that control the process. In particular, we show how the power-law distributions are built up as time elapses, how their moments behave with time, and how their stationary profiles become quantitatively determined by those parameters. Our discussion emphasizes the connection with financial systems, but these stochastic processes are also expected to be fruitful in modeling a wide variety of social and biological phenomena.

Mutational screening in the LDLR gene among patients presenting familial hypercholesterolemia in the Southeast of Brazil.

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a dominant, autosomal disease characterized by high LDL levels in blood plasma, and is caused by a defect in the gene encoding the LDL receptor (LDLR). The clinical diagnosis is based on personal and familial history, physical examination findings, and measures of high LDL cholesterol concentrations. LDLR is a cell-surface glycoprotein that controls the level of blood plasma cholesterol and triglyceride by LDLR-mediated endocytosis. Here we sequenced the entire LDLR gene-coding region to screen for mutations in 32 patients diagnosed with FH, and we have found 20 mutations including synonymous, missense, and intronic mutations. Six of them were characterized as pathogenic mutations (D178Y, C184Y, S326C, C681X, IVS7+10G>C, and IVS11-10G>A). We have also found one intronic mutation not described so far (IVS11-63C>A). Our study corroborates the broad spectrum of mutations distributed along the entire LDLR gene, and we suggest that the genes APOB and PCSK9 should also be screened for mutations when considering the diagnosis of FH. It is already known that different types of mutations are directly associated with the phenotype heterogeneity presented by patients. Considering that Brazilian population is highly admixed, it is important to determine the geographic spectrum of LDLR mutations to provide information on the prognosis and treatment of each FH patient.

Autologous hematopoietic SCT normalizes miR-16, -155 and -142-3p expression in multiple sclerosis patients.

Autologous hematopoietic SCT (AHSCT) has been investigated in the past as a therapeutic alternative for multiple sclerosis (MS). Despite advances in clinical management, knowledge about mechanisms involved with clinical remission post transplantation is still limited. Abnormal microRNA and gene expression patterns were described in MS and have been suggested as disease biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets. Here we assessed T- and B-cell reconstitution, microRNAs and immunoregulatory gene expression after AHSCT. Early immune reconstitution was mainly driven by peripheral homeostatic proliferation. AHSCT increased CD4(+)CD25(hi)FoxP3(+) regulatory T-cell counts and expression of CTLA-4 and GITR (glucocorticoid-induced TNFR) on CD4(+)CD25(hi) T cells. We found transient increase in exhausted PD-1(+) T cells and of suppressive CD8(+)CD28(-)CD57(+) T cells. At baseline, CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells from MS patients presented upregulated miR-16, miR-155 and miR-142-3p and downregulated FOXP3, FOXO1, PDCD1 and IRF2BP2. After transplantation, the expression of FOXP3, FOXO1, PDCD1 and IRF2BP2 increased, reaching control levels at 2 years. Expression of miR-16, miR-155 and miR-142-3p decreased towards normal levels at 6 months post therapy, remaining downregulated until the end of follow-up. These data strongly suggest that AHSCT normalizes microRNA and gene expression, thereby improving the immunoregulatory network. These mechanisms may be important for disease control in the early periods after AHSCT.

Microarray profiles of ex vivo expanded hematopoietic stem cells show induction of genes involved in noncanonical Wnt signaling.

The low number of hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) in umbilical cord blood (UCB) is directly related to increased risk of transplant failure. Effective ex vivo expansion of HSC has been tried for many years, with conflicting results because of the inability to reproduce in vitro HSC proliferation in the same way it occurs in vivo. We compared freshly isolated HSC with their expanded counterparts by microarray analysis and detected activation of the noncanonical Wnt (wingless-type MMTV integration site family) pathway. Study of early alterations during ex vivo UCB-HSC expansion could contribute to improvement of ex vivo expansion systems.

Gene expression study related with the intrinsic pathway of apoptosis in bladder cancer by real-time PCR technique.

We examined the expression of anti-apoptotic genes (XIAP and Bcl-2) and apoptotic genes (cytochrome c, caspase-9, Apaf-1) in tissue samples of patients with superficial bladder cancer. Thirty-two bladder cancer tissue samples (8 papillary urothelial neoplasm of low malignant potential, 10 low-grade, and 14 high-grade) and 8 normal bladder tissue samples from necropsy were used for the study of gene expression by real-time PCR analysis. Analysis of the expression of apoptotic gene constituents of an apoptosome demonstrated an increase in Apaf-1 expression in the three tumor grades when compared with the control (P < 0.01, P < 0.05, and P < 0.01), low expression of caspase-9 in all groups (P < 0.05), and an increase in cytochrome c expression in all tumor grades in relation to the control, although without statistically significant difference. The expression of anti-apoptotic genes revealed an increase in XIAP expression in all tumor grades in relation to the control, although without statistically significant difference, and low expression of Bcl-2 in all tumor grades and the control (P < 0.05). The results proved that there is low evidence of apoptotic activity by the intrinsic pathway, demonstrated by the low expression of caspase-9 and considerable increase in XIAP expression, which may render these genes potential therapeutic targets in bladder cancer treatment.

Education, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and IL-2 and IL-6 gene polymorphisms in the survival of head and neck cancer

The association of education, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and interleukin-2 (IL-2 +114 and -384) and -6 (IL-6 -174) DNA polymorphisms with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) was investigated in a cohort study of 445 subjects. IL-2 and IL-6 genotypes were determined by real-time PCR. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (95 percentCI) of disease-specific survival according to anatomical sites of the head and neck. Mean age was 56 years and most patients were males (87.6 percent). Subjects with 5 or more years of schooling had better survival in larynx cancer. Smoking had no effect on HNSCC survival, but alcohol consumption had a statistically significant effect on larynx cancer. IL-2 gene +114 G/T (HR = 0.52; 95 percentCI = 0.15-1.81) and T/T (HR = 0.22; 95 percentCI = 0.02-3.19) genotypes were associated with better survival in hypopharynx cancer. IL-2 +114 G/T was a predictor of poor survival in oral cavity/oropharynx cancer and larynx cancer (HR = 1.32; 95 percentCI = 0.61-2.85). IL-2 -384 G/T was associated with better survival in oral cavity/oropharynx cancer (HR = 0.80; 95 percentCI = 0.45-1.42) and hypopharynx cancer (HR = 0.68; 95 percentCI = 0.21-2.20), but an inverse relationship was observed for larynx cancer. IL-6 -174 G/C was associated with better survival in hypopharynx cancer (HR = 0.68; 95 percentCI = 0.26-1.78) and larynx cancer (HR = 0.93; 95 percentCI = 0.42-2.07), and C/C reduced mortality in larynx cancer. In general, our results are similar to previous reports on the value of education, smoking, alcohol consumption, and IL-2 and IL-6 genetic polymorphisms for the prognosis of HNSCC, but the risks due to these variables are small and estimates imprecise.

Education, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and IL-2 and IL-6 gene polymorphisms in the survival of head and neck cancer.

The association of education, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and interleukin-2 (IL-2 +114 and -384) and -6 (IL-6 -174) DNA polymorphisms with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) was investigated in a cohort study of 445 subjects. IL-2 and IL-6 genotypes were determined by real-time PCR. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) of disease-specific survival according to anatomical sites of the head and neck. Mean age was 56 years and most patients were males (87.6%). Subjects with 5 or more years of schooling had better survival in larynx cancer. Smoking had no effect on HNSCC survival, but alcohol consumption had a statistically significant effect on larynx cancer. IL-2 gene +114 G/T (HR = 0.52; 95%CI = 0.15-1.81) and T/T (HR = 0.22; 95%CI = 0.02-3.19) genotypes were associated with better survival in hypopharynx cancer. IL-2 +114 G/T was a predictor of poor survival in oral cavity/oropharynx cancer and larynx cancer (HR = 1.32; 95%CI = 0.61-2.85). IL-2 -384 G/T was associated with better survival in oral cavity/oropharynx cancer (HR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.45-1.42) and hypopharynx cancer (HR = 0.68; 95%CI = 0.21-2.20), but an inverse relationship was observed for larynx cancer. IL-6 -174 G/C was associated with better survival in hypopharynx cancer (HR = 0.68; 95%CI = 0.26-1.78) and larynx cancer (HR = 0.93; 95%CI = 0.42-2.07), and C/C reduced mortality in larynx cancer. In general, our results are similar to previous reports on the value of education, smoking, alcohol consumption, and IL-2 and IL-6 genetic polymorphisms for the prognosis of HNSCC, but the risks due to these variables are small and estimates imprecise.

Detection of spinal muscular atrophy carriers in a sample of the Brazilian population.

BACKGROUND: Spinal muscular atrophy is a common autosomal recessive neuromuscular disorder caused by mutations in the SMN1 gene. Identification of spinal muscular atrophy carriers has important implications for individuals with a family history of the disorder and for genetic counseling. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of carriers in a sample of the nonconsanguineous Brazilian population by denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC). METHODS: To validate the method, we initially determined the relative quantification of DHPLC in 28 affected patients (DHPLC values: 0.00) and 65 parents (DHPLC values: 0.49-0.69). Following quantification, we studied 150 unrelated nonconsanguineous healthy individuals from the general population. RESULTS: Four of the 150 healthy individuals tested (with no family history of a neuromuscular disorder) presented a DHPLC value in the range of heterozygous carriers (0.6-0.68). CONCLUSIONS: Based on these results, we estimated there is a carrier frequency of 2.7% in the nonconsanguineous Brazilian population, which is very similar to other areas of the world where consanguineous marriage is not common. This should be considered in the process of genetic counseling and risk calculations.

Association of drug metabolism gene polymorphisms with toxicities, graft-versus-host disease and survival after HLA-identical sibling hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with leukemia.

Individual differences in drug efficacy or toxicity can be influenced by genetic factors. We investigated whether polymorphisms of pharmacogenes that interfere with metabolism of drugs used in conditioning regimen and graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) prophylaxis could be associated with outcomes after HLA-identical hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Pharmacogenes and their polymorphisms were studied in 107 donors and patients with leukemia receiving HSCT. Candidate genes were: P450 cytochrome family (CYP2B6), glutathione-S-transferase family (GST), multidrug-resistance gene, methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) and vitamin D receptor (VDR). The end points studied were oral mucositis (OM), hemorrhagic cystitis (HC), toxicity and venoocclusive disease of the liver (VOD), GvHD, transplantation-related mortality (TRM) and survival. Multivariate analyses, using death as a competing event, were performed adjusting for clinical factors. Among other clinical and genetic factors, polymorphisms of CYP2B6 genes that interfere with cyclophosphamide metabolism were associated with OM (recipient CYP2B6(*)4; P=0.0067), HC (recipient CYP2B6(*)2; P=0.03) and VOD (donor CYP2B6(*)6; P=0.03). Recipient MTHFR polymorphisms (C677T) were associated with acute GvHD (P=0.03), and recipient VDR TaqI with TRM and overall survival (P=0.006 and P=0.04, respectively).Genetic factors that interfere with drug metabolisms are associated with treatment-related toxicities, GvHD and survival after HLA-identical HSCT in patients with leukemia and should be investigated prospectively.

miRNA expression profiles in chronic lymphocytic and acute lymphocytic leukemia

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are a class of small endogenous RNAs that play important regulatory roles by targeting mRNAs for cleavage or translational repression. miRNAs act in diverse biological processes including development, cell growth, apoptosis, and hematopoiesis, suggesting their association with cancer. We determined the miRNA expression profile of chronic and acute lymphocytic leukemias (CLL and ALL) using the TaqMan® MicroRNA Assays Human Panel (Applied Biosystems). Pooled leukemia samples were compared to pooled CD19+ samples from healthy individuals (calibrator) by the 2-DD Ct method. Total RNA input was normalized based on the Ct values obtained for hsa-miR-30b. The five most highly expressed miRNAs were miR-128b, miR-204, miR-218, miR-331, and miR-181b-1 in ALL, and miR-331, miR-29a, miR-195, miR-34a, and miR-29c in CLL. To our knowledge, this is the first report associating miR-128b, miR-204 and miR-331 to hematological malignancies. The miR-17-92 cluster was also found to be up-regulated in ALL, as previously reported for some types of lymphomas. The differences observed in gene expression levels were validated for miR-331 and miR-128b in ALL and CD19+ samples. These miRNAs were up-regulated in ALL, in agreement with our initial results. A brief target analysis was performed for miR-331. One of its putative targets, SOCS1, promotes STAT activation, which is a known mediator of cell proliferation and survival, suggesting the possibility of an association between miR-331 and these processes. This initial screening provided information on miRNA differentially expressed in normal and malignant B-cells that could suggest the potential roles of these miRNAs in hematopoiesis and leukemogenesis.

miRNA expression profiles in chronic lymphocytic and acute lymphocytic leukemia.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are a class of small endogenous RNAs that play important regulatory roles by targeting mRNAs for cleavage or translational repression. miRNAs act in diverse biological processes including development, cell growth, apoptosis, and hematopoiesis, suggesting their association with cancer. We determined the miRNA expression profile of chronic and acute lymphocytic leukemias (CLL and ALL) using the TaqMan MicroRNA Assays Human Panel (Applied Biosystems). Pooled leukemia samples were compared to pooled CD19+ samples from healthy individuals (calibrator) by the 2-DD Ct method. Total RNA input was normalized based on the Ct values obtained for hsa-miR-30b. The five most highly expressed miRNAs were miR-128b, miR-204, miR-218, miR-331, and miR-181b-1 in ALL, and miR-331, miR-29a, miR-195, miR-34a, and miR-29c in CLL. To our knowledge, this is the first report associating miR-128b, miR-204 and miR-331 to hematological malignancies. The miR-17-92 cluster was also found to be up-regulated in ALL, as previously reported for some types of lymphomas. The differences observed in gene expression levels were validated for miR-331 and miR-128b in ALL and CD19+ samples. These miRNAs were up-regulated in ALL, in agreement with our initial results. A brief target analysis was performed for miR-331. One of its putative targets, SOCS1, promotes STAT activation, which is a known mediator of cell proliferation and survival, suggesting the possibility of an association between miR-331 and these processes. This initial screening provided information on miRNA differentially expressed in normal and malignant B-cells that could suggest the potential roles of these miRNAs in hematopoiesis and leukemogenesis.

pH at the micellar interface: synthesis of pH probes derived from salicylic acid, acid-base dissociation in sodium dodecyl sulfate micelles, and Poisson-Boltzmann simulation.

The study of the H+ concentration at the micellar interface is a convenient system for modeling the distribution of H+ at interfaces. We have synthesized salicylic acid derivatives to analyze the proton dissociation of both the carboxylic and phenol groups of the probes, determining spectrophotometrically the apparent pK(a)'s (pK(ap)) in sodium dodecyl sulfate, SDS, micelles with and without added salt. The synthesized probes were 2-hydroxy-5-(2-trimethylammoniumacetyl)benzoate; 2-hydroxy-5-(2-dimethylhexadecylammoniumacetyl)benzoate; 2-hydroxy-5-(2-dimethylhexadecylammoniumhexanoyl)benzoate; 2-hydroxy-5-(2-dimethylhexadecylammoniumundecanoyl)benzoate; 2-hydroxy-5-acetylbenzoic acid; and 2-hydroxy-5-dodecanoylbenzoic acid. Upon incorporation into SDS micelles the pK(ap)'s of both carboxylic and phenol groups increased by ca. 3 pH units and NaCl addition caused a decrease in the probe-incorporated pK(ap). The experimental results were fitted with a cell model Poisson-Boltzmann (P-B) equation taking in consideration the effect of salt on the aggregation number of SDS and using the distance of the dissociating group as a parameter. The conformations of the probes were analyzed theoretically using two dielectric constants, e.g., 2 and 78. Both the P-B analysis and conformation calculations can be interpreted by assuming that the acid groups dissociate very close to, or at, the interface. Our results are consistent with the assumption that the intrinsic pK(a)'s of both carboxylic and phenol groups of the salicylic acid probes used here can be taken as those in water. Using this assumption the micellar and salt effects on the pK(ap)'s of the (trialkylammonium)benzoate probes were described accurately using a cell model P-B analysis.

Cooperative action of coherent groups in broadly heterogeneous populations of interacting chemical oscillators.

We present laboratory experiments on the effects of global coupling in a population of electrochemical oscillators with a multimodal frequency distribution. The experiments show that complex collective signals are generated by this system through spontaneous emergence and joint operation of coherently acting groups representing hierarchically organized resonant clusters. Numerical simulations support these experimental findings. Our results suggest that some forms of internal self-organization, characteristic for complex multiagent systems, are already possible in simple chemical systems.

Critical behavior of propagation on small-world networks.

We report numerical evidence that an epidemiclike model, which can be interpreted as the propagation of a rumor, exhibits critical behavior at a finite randomness of the underlying small-world network. The transition occurs between a regime where the rumor "dies" in a small neighborhood of its origin, and a regime where it spreads over a finite fraction of the whole population. Critical exponents are evaluated through finite-size scaling analysis, and the dependence of the critical randomness with the network connectivity is studied. The behavior of this system as a function of the small-network randomness bears noticeable similarities with an epidemiological model reported recently [M. Kuperman and G. Abramson, Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 2909 (2001)], in spite of substantial differences in the respective dynamical rules.

Synchronization of Kauffman networks.

We analyze the synchronization transition for a pair of coupled identical Kauffman networks in the chaotic phase. The annealed model for Kauffman networks shows that synchronization appears through a transcritical bifurcation and provides an approximate description for the whole dynamics of the coupled networks. We show that these analytical predictions are in good agreement with numerical results for sufficiently large networks and study finite-size effects in detail. Preliminary analytical and numerical results for partially disordered networks are also presented.

On the genealogy of a population of biparental individuals.

If one goes backward in time, the number of ancestors of an individual doubles at each generation. This exponential growth very quickly exceeds the population size, when this size is finite. As a consequence, the ancestors of a given individual cannot be all different and most remote ancestors are repeated many times in any genealogical tree. The statistical properties of these repetitions in genealogical trees of individuals for a panmictic closed population of constant size N can be calculated. We show that the distribution of the repetitions of ancestors reaches a stationary shape after a small number G(c) approximately log N of generations in the past, that only about 80% of the ancestral population belongs to the tree (due to coalescence of branches), and that two trees for individuals in the same population become identical after G(c)generations have elapsed. Our analysis is easy to extend to the case of exponentially growing population.

Self-organizing molecular networks.

Strong diffusional mixing and short delivery times typical for micrometer and sub-micrometer reaction volumes lead to a special situation where the turnover times of individual enzyme molecules become the largest characteristic time scale of the chemical kinetics. Under these conditions, populations of cross-regulating allosteric enzymes form molecular networks that exhibit various kinds of self-organized coherent collective dynamics.

Ideal Mixing of Polymer-Surfactant Complexes of Polyethylene Oxide and Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate Plus Sodium Dodecanoate.

Mixtures of the anionic surfactants sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) and sodium dodecanoate (SDoD) were investigated regarding their ability to bind to a hydrophilic nonionic polymer, polyethylene oxide (PEO). By electrical conductivity measurements, the parameters with respect to the onsets of surfactant aggregation were determined in the presence of 0.06 M PEO (critical aggregation concentration) and in its absence (critical micelle concentration). It was found that both plots of these parameters for the multicomponent mixtures against molar fraction of SDoD showed an ideal mixing behavior. The same technique was used to estimate the degree of ionization as a fundamental parameter relating to the interfacial composition of mixed aggregates. In addition, in order to monitor changes in polymer-surfactant structures, we used steady-state quenching fluorescence measurements to characterize the sizes of PEO-SDS/SDoD complexes at different compositions of the complex mixture. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.