Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations. OBJECTIVES: We examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y. METHODS: We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country. RESULTS: A total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain. DISCUSSION: Our findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.

A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate.

BACKGROUND: Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation. METHODS: Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985-2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population. RESULTS: Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45-1.66% to 0.15-0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57-15.43% to 2.16-8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. METHODS: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave-mortality relation over lags of 0-10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. RESULTS: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave-mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026.

Mapping distance-decay of cardiorespiratory disease risk related to neighborhood environments.

Neighborhood characteristics affect an individual's quality of life. Although several studies have examined the relationship between neighborhood environments and human health, we are unaware of studies that have examined the distance-decay of this effect and then presented the risk results spatially. Our study is unique in that is explores the health effects in a less developed country compared to most studies that have focused on developed countries. The objective of our study is to quantify the distance-decay cardiorespiratory diseases risk related to 28 neighborhood aspects in the Federal District, Brazil and present this information spatially through risk maps of the region. Toward this end, we used a quantile regression model to estimate risk and GIS modeling techniques to create risk maps. Our analysis produced the following findings: i) a 2500 m increase in highway length was associated with a 46% increase in cardiorespiratory diseases; ii) 46,000 light vehicles in circulation (considering a buffer of ≤500 m from residences) was associated with 6 hospital admissions (95% CI: 2.6, 14.6) per cardiorespiratory diseases; iii) 74,000 m2 of commercial areas (buffer ≤1700 m) was associated with 12 hospital admissions (95% CI: 2.2, 20.8); iv) 1km2 increase in green areas intra urban was associated with less two hospital admissions, and; vi) those who live ≤500 m from the nearest point of wildfire are more likely to have cardiorespiratory diseases that those living >500 m. Our findings suggest that the approach used in this study can be an option to improve the public health policies.

Effect of daily temperature range on respiratory health in Argentina and its modification by impaired socio-economic conditions and PM10 exposures.

Epidemiological investigations regarding temperature influence on human health have focused on mortality rather than morbidity. In addition, most information comes from developed countries despite the increasing evidence that climate change will have devastating impacts on disadvantaged populations living in developing countries. In the present study, we assessed the impact of daily temperature range on upper and lower respiratory infections in Cordoba, Argentina, and explored the effect modification of socio-economic factors and influence of airborne particles We found that temperature range is a strong risk factor for admissions due to both upper and lower respiratory infections, particularly in elderly individuals, and that these effects are more pronounced in sub-populations with low education level or in poor living conditions. These results indicate that socio-economic factors are strong modifiers of the association between temperature variability and respiratory morbidity, thus they should be considered in risk assessments.

Air pollution and children's health: sickle cell disease.

The hallmarks of sickle cell disease are anemia and vasculopathy. The aim of this study was to assess the association between air pollution and children's emergency room visits of sickle cell patients. We adopted a case-crossover design. Daily counts of children's and adolescents' sickle cell disease emergency room visits from the pediatric emergency unit in São Paulo, Brazil, were evaluated from September 1999 to December 2004, matching by temperature, humidity and controlling for day of the week. Interquartile range increases of the four-day moving averages of PM10, NO2, SO2, CO, and O3 were associated with increases of 18.9% (95%CI: 11.2-26.5), 19% (95%CI: 8.3-29.6), 14.4% (95%CI: 6.5-22.4), 16,5% (95%CI: 8.9-24.0), and 9.8% (95%CI: 1.1-18.6) in total sickle cell emergency room visits, respectively. When the analyses were stratified by pain, PM10 was found to be 40.3% higher than in sickle cell patients without pain symptoms. Exposure to air pollution can affect the cardiovascular health of children and may promote a significant health burden in a sensitive group.

Air pollution and children's health: sickle cell disease / Poluição do ar e a saúde das crianças: a doença falciforme / Contaminación atmosférica y salud de los niños: la enfermedad de células falciformes

The hallmarks of sickle cell disease are anemia and vasculopathy. The aim of this study was to assess the association between air pollution and children's emergency room visits of sickle cell patients. We adopted a case-crossover design. Daily counts of children's and adolescents' sickle cell disease emergency room visits from the pediatric emergency unit in São Paulo, Brazil, were evaluated from September 1999 to December 2004, matching by temperature, humidity and controlling for day of the week. Interquartile range increases of the four-day moving averages of PM10, NO2, SO2, CO, and O3 were associated with increases of 18.9% (95%CI: 11.2-26.5), 19% (95%CI: 8.3-29.6), 14.4% (95%CI: 6.5-22.4), 16,5% (95%CI: 8.9-24.0), and 9.8% (95%CI: 1.1-18.6) in total sickle cell emergency room visits, respectively. When the analyses were stratified by pain, PM10 was found to be 40.3% higher than in sickle cell patients without pain symptoms. Exposure to air pollution can affect the cardiovascular health of children and may promote a significant health burden in a sensitive group.

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a associação entre a poluição do ar e atendimentos de emergência pediátrica de pacientes portadores de anemia falciforme. Adotamos um estudo de case-crossover. Visitas de crianças e adolescentes portadores de anemia falciforme ao pronto-socorro pediátrico, em São Paulo, Brasil, foram avaliadas a partir de setembro de 1999 até dezembro de 2004, controlando a temperatura, umidade e dia da semana. Variações interquartis das médias móveis de quatro dias de PM10, NO2, SO2, CO e O3 foram associadas com aumentos de 18,9% (IC95%: 11,2-26,5), 19% (IC95%: 8,3-29,6), 14,4% (IC95%: 6,5-22,4), 16,5% (IC95%: 8,9-24,0) e 9,8% (IC95%: 1,1-18,6) nos atendimentos totais, respectivamente. Quando as análises foram estratificadas por dor, verificou-se que PM10 apresentou correlação 40,3% maior do que a observada em pacientes falciformes sem sintomas de dor. A exposição à poluição do ar pode afetar a saúde cardiovascular de crianças e promover um fardo significativo para a saúde em um grupo suscetível, como o de pacientes com anemia falciforme.

El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar la asociación entre la contaminación atmosférica y las visitas de emergencia de los pacientes pediátricos con anemia de células falciformes. Hemos adoptado un estudio de casos cruzados. Visitas de niños y adolescentes con anemia de células falciformes en urgencias pediátricas, en São Paulo, Brasil, se evaluaron entre 1999 y 2004 con un control de la temperatura, humedad y día de la semana. El rango intercuartil de los promedios móviles de 4 días de PM10, NO2, SO2, CO y O3 se asociaron con un aumento del 18,9% (IC95%: 11,2-26,5), 19,0% (IC95%: 8,3-29,6), 14,4% (IC95%: 6,5-22,4), 16,5% (IC95%: 8,9-24,0), y 9,8% (IC95%: 1,1-18,6) en el total de visitas, respectivamente. Cuando los análisis se estratificaron por el dolor, se encontró que el PM10 mostró una correlación un 40,3% mayor que la observada en pacientes sin síntomas de dolor. La exposición a la contaminación del aire puede afectar la salud cardiovascular de los niños y puede promover una importante carga para la salud en pacientes con anemia de células falciformes.

Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality / Efeitos isolados e sinérgicos do MP10 e da temperatura média na mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares e respiratórias

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels ...

OBJETIVO Analisar o efeito da poluição do ar e da temperatura na mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares e respiratórias. MÉTODOS Foram analisados os efeitos da temperatura e do material particulado com diâmetro aerodinâmico < 10 micrômetros (MP10), isolado e sinérgico, na mortalidade de indivíduos > 40 anos por doenças cardiovasculares e na mortalidade de indivíduos > 60 anos por doenças respiratórias em São Paulo, SP, entre 1998 e 2008. Três tipos de metodologias foram aplicadas para avaliar a associação isolada: análise de séries temporais com regressão de Poisson, análise case-crossover com pareamento temporal bidirecional e análise case-crossover com pareamento pelo fator confundidor, i.e., temperatura média ou poluente. Foi interpretada a representação gráfica da superfície resposta, gerada por termo de interação entre tais fatores adicionado à regressão de Poisson, para avaliar o efeito sinérgico entre os fatores de risco. RESULTADOS Não foram observadas diferenças entre os resultados das análises case-crossover e de séries temporais. Estimou-se mudança percentual no risco relativo para mortalidade cardiovascular e respiratória de 0,85% (0,45;1,25) e 1,60% (0,74;2,46), respectivamente, devido ao aumento de 10 μg/m3 na concentração do MP10. O padrão de associação da temperatura para mortalidade cardiovascular foi de U-shape e para mortalidade respiratória foi de J-shape, representando maior risco relativo em temperaturas altas. As figuras do termo de interação indicaram maior risco relativo em baixas temperaturas para mortalidade cardiovascular e em altas temperaturas para mortalidade respiratória em níveis de poluição em torno de 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSÕES ...

Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality.

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 µg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 µg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.

Elemental concentrations of ambient particles and cause specific mortality in Santiago, Chile: a time series study.

BACKGROUND: The health effects of particulate air pollution are widely recognized and there is some evidence that the magnitude of these effects vary by particle component. We studied the effects of ambient fine particles (aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 µm, PM(2.5)) and their components on cause-specific mortality in Santiago, Chile, where particulate pollution is a major public health concern. METHODS: Air pollution was collected in a residential area in the center of Santiago. Daily mortality counts were obtained from the National Institute of Statistic. The associations between PM(2.5) and cause-specific mortality were studied by time series analysis controlling for time trends, day of the week, temperature and relative humidity. We then included an interaction term between PM(2.5) and the monthly averages of the mean ratios of individual elements to PM2.5 mass. RESULTS: We found significant effects of PM(2.5) on all the causes analyzed, with a 1.33% increase (95% CI: 0.87-1.78) in cardiovascular mortality per 10 µg/m(3) increase in the two days average of PM(2.5). We found that zinc was associated with higher cardiovascular mortality. Particles with high content of chromium, copper and sulfur showed stronger associations with respiratory and COPD mortality, while high zinc and sodium content of PM(2.5) amplified the association with cerebrovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that PM(2.5) with high zinc, chromium, copper, sodium, and sulfur content have stronger associations with mortality than PM(2.5) mass alone in Santiago, Chile. The sources of particles containing these elements need to be determined to better control their emissions.

The impact of sugar cane-burning emissions on the respiratory system of children and the elderly.

We analyzed the influence of emissions from burning sugar cane on the respiratory system during almost 1 year in the city of Piracicaba in southeast Brazil. From April 1997 through March 1998, samples of inhalable particles were collected, separated into fine and coarse particulate mode, and analyzed for black carbon and tracer elements. At the same time, we examined daily records of children (<13 years of age) and elderly people (>64 years of age) admitted to the hospital because of respiratory diseases. Generalized linear models were adopted with natural cubic splines to control for season and linear terms to control for weather. Analyses were carried out for the entire period, as well as for burning and nonburning periods. Additional models were built using three factors obtained from factor analysis instead of particles or tracer elements. Increases of 10.2 microg/m3 in particles

Impact of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on the estimated associations of temperature and daily mortality.

We assessed the influence of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on associations between apparent temperature (AT) and daily mortality in Mexico City and Monterrey. Poisson regressions were fit to mortality among all ages, children (ages 0-14 years) and the elderly (ages >or=65 years). Predictors included mean daily AT, season, day of week and public holidays for the base model. Respiratory epidemics and air pollution (particulate matter <10 microm in aerodynamic diameter and O3) were added singly and then jointly for a fully adjusted model. Percent changes in mortality were calculated for days of relatively extreme temperatures [cold (10-11 degrees C) for both cities and heat (35-36 degrees C) for Monterrey], compared to days at the overall mean temperature in each city (15 degrees C in Mexico City, 25 degrees C in Monterrey). In Mexico City, total mortality increased 12.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.5%, 14.5%] on cold days (fully adjusted). Among children, the adjusted association was similar [10.9% (95% CI: 5.4%, 16.7%)], but without control for pollution and epidemics, was nearly twice as large [19.7% (95% CI: 13.9%, 25.9)]. In Monterrey, the fully adjusted heat effect for all deaths was 18.7% (95% CI: 11.7%, 26.1%), a third lower than the unadjusted estimate; the heat effect was lower among children [5.5% (95% CI: -10.1%, 23.8%)]. Cold had a similar effect on all-age mortality as in Mexico City [11.7% (95% CI: 3.7%, 20.3%)]. Responses of the elderly differed little from all-ages responses in both cities. Associations between weather and health persisted even with control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics in two Mexican cities, but risk assessments and climate change adaptation programs are best informed by analyses that account for these potential confounders.