More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change.

Compound flooding arises from storms causing concurrent extreme meteorological tides (that is the superposition of storm surge and waves) and precipitation. This flooding can severely affect densely populated low-lying coastal areas. Here, combining output from climate and ocean models, we analyse the concurrence probability of the meteorological conditions driving compound flooding. We show that, under a high emissions scenario, the concurrence probability would increase globally by more than 25% by 2100 compared to present. In latitudes above 40o north, compound flooding could become more than 2.5 times as frequent, in contrast to parts of the subtropics where it would weaken. Changes in extreme precipitation and meteorological tides account for most (77% and 20%, respectively) of the projected change in concurrence probability. The evolution of the dependence between precipitation and meteorological tide dominates the uncertainty in the projections. Our results indicate that not accounting for these effects in adaptation planning could leave coastal communities insufficiently protected against flooding.

Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing.

As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by our understanding of the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, which to a high degree remains uncertain. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide spread in atmospheric circulation changes projected in multimodel ensembles, which cannot be directly interpreted in a probabilistic sense. The uncertainty can instead be represented by studying a discrete set of physically plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation changes. By mining CMIP5 model output, here we take this broader perspective and develop storylines for Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude circulation changes, conditioned on the degree of global-mean warming, based on the climate responses of two remote drivers: the enhanced warming of the tropical upper troposphere and the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. For the three continental domains in the SH, we analyse the precipitation changes under each storyline. To allow comparison with previous studies, we also link both circulation and precipitation changes with those of the Southern Annular Mode. Our results show that the response to tropical warming leads to a strengthening of the midlatitude westerly winds, whilst the response to a delayed breakdown (for DJF) or strengthening (for JJA) of the stratospheric vortex leads to a poleward shift of the westerly winds and the storm tracks. However, the circulation response is not zonally symmetric and the regional precipitation storylines for South America, South Africa, South of Australia and New Zealand exhibit quite specific dependencies on the two remote drivers, which are not well represented by changes in the Southern Annular Mode.

Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas-namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate-related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world.