Benchmarking seeding strategies for spreading processes in social networks: an interplay between influencers, topologies and sizes.

The explosion of network science has permitted an understanding of how the structure of social networks affects the dynamics of social contagion. In community-based interventions with spill-over effects, identifying influential spreaders may be harnessed to increase the spreading efficiency of social contagion, in terms of time needed to spread all the largest connected component of the network. Several strategies have been proved to be efficient using only data and simulation-based models in specific network topologies without a consensus of an overall result. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to benchmark the spreading efficiency of seeding strategies related to network structural properties and sizes. We simulate spreading processes on empirical and simulated social networks within a wide range of densities, clustering coefficients, and sizes. We also propose three new decentralized seeding strategies that are structurally different from well-known strategies: community hubs, ambassadors, and random hubs. We observe that the efficiency ranking of strategies varies with the network structure. In general, for sparse networks with community structure, decentralized influencers are suitable for increasing the spreading efficiency. By contrast, when the networks are denser, centralized influencers outperform. These results provide a framework for selecting efficient strategies according to different contexts in which social networks emerge.

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs.

Using agent based modeling to assess the effect of increased Bus Rapid Transit system infrastructure on walking for transportation.

The effect of transport infrastructure on walking is of interest to researchers because it provides an opportunity, from the public policy point of view, to increase physical activity (PA). We use an agent based model (ABM) to examine the effect of transport infrastructure on walking. Particular relevance is given to assess the effect of the growth of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Bogotá on walking. In the ABM agents are assigned a home, work location, and socioeconomic status (SES) based on which they are assigned income for transportation. Individuals must decide between the available modes of transport (i.e., car, taxi, bus, BRT, and walking) as the means of reaching their destination, based on resources and needed travel time. We calibrated the model based on Bogota's 2011 mobility survey. The ABM results are consistent with previous empirical findings, increasing BRT access does indeed increase the number of minutes that individuals walk for transportation, although this effect also depends on the availability of other transport modes. The model indicates a saturation process: as more BRT lanes are added, the increment in minutes walking becomes smaller, and eventually the walking time decreases. Our findings on the potential contribution of the expansion of the BRT system to walking for transportation suggest that ABMs may prove helpful in designing policies to continue promoting walking.

TransMilenio, a Scalable Bus Rapid Transit System for Promoting Physical Activity.

Transport systems can play an important role in increasing physical activity (PA). Bogotá has been recognized for its bus rapid transit (BRT) system, TransMilenio (TM). To date, BRTs have been implemented in over 160 cities worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the association between PA and the use of TM among adults in Bogotá. The study consists of a cross-sectional study conducted from 2010 to 2011 with 1000 adults. PA was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. In a subsample of 250 adults, PA was objectively measured using ActiGraph accelerometers. Analyses were conducted using multilevel logistic regression models. The use of TM was associated with meeting moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). TM users were more likely to complete an average of >22 min a day of MVPA (odds ratio [OR] = 3.1, confidence interval [CI] = 95 % 1.4-7.1) and to walk for transportation for ≥150 min per week (OR = 1.5; CI = 95 % 1.1-2.0). The use of TM was associated with 12 or more minutes of MVPA (95 % CI 4.5-19.4, p < 0.0001). Associations between meeting PA recommendations and use of TM did not differ by socioeconomic status (p value = 0.106) or sex (p value = 0.288). The use of TM is a promising strategy for enhancing public health efforts to reduce physical inactivity through walking for transport. Given the expansion of BRTs, these results could inform the development of transport PA programs in low- to high-income countries.

Modeling a bus through a sequence of traffic lights.

We propose a model of a bus traveling through a sequence of traffic lights, which is required to stop between the traffic signals to pick up passengers. A two dimensional model, of velocity and traveled time at each traffic light, is constructed, which shows non-trivial and chaotic behaviors for realistic city traffic parameters. We restrict the parameter values where these non-trivial and chaotic behaviors occur, by following analytically and numerically the fixed points and period 2 orbits. We define conditions where chaos may arise by determining regions in parameter space where the maximum Lyapunov exponent is positive. Chaos seems to occur as long as the ratio of the braking and accelerating capacities are greater than about ∼3.

A case study analysis to examine motorcycle crashes in Bogota, Colombia.

INTRODUCTION: Contributory factors to motorcycle crashes vary among populations depending on several aspects such as the users' profiles, the composition and density of traffic, and the infrastructure features. A better understanding of local motorcycle crashes can be reached in those places where a comprehensive analysis is performed. This paper presents the results obtained from a case study analysis of 400 police records of accidents involving motorcycles in Bogota. METHOD: To achieve a deeper level of understanding of how these accidents occur, we propose a systemic approach that uses available crash data. The methodology is inspired by accident prototypical scenarios, a tool for analysis developed in France. RESULTS: When grouping cases we identified three categories: solo motorcycle accidents, motorcyclist and pedestrian accidents, and accidents involving a motorcycle and another vehicle. Within these categories we undertook in-depth analyses of 32 groups of accidents obtaining valuable information to better comprehend motorcyclists' road crashes in a local context. Recurrent contributory factors in the groups of accidents include: inexperienced motorcyclists, wide urban roads that incite speeding and risky overtaking maneuvers, flowing urban roads that encourage high speed and increased interaction between vehicles, and lack of infrastructure maintenance. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: The results obtained are a valuable asset to define measures that will be conveniently adapted to the group of accident on which we want to act. The methodology exposed in this paper is applicable to the study of road crashes that involve all types of actors, not only the motorcyclists, and in contexts different than those presented in Bogota.

Regular transport dynamics produce chaotic travel times.

In the hope of making passenger travel times shorter and more reliable, many cities are introducing dedicated bus lanes (e.g., Bogota, London, Miami). Here we show that chaotic travel times are actually a natural consequence of individual bus function, and hence of public transport systems more generally, i.e., chaotic dynamics emerge even when the route is empty and straight, stops and lights are equidistant and regular, and loading times are negligible. More generally, our findings provide a novel example of chaotic dynamics emerging from a single object following Newton's laws of motion in a regularized one-dimensional system.

Network analysis of Bogotá's Ciclovía Recreativa, a self-organized multisectorial community program to promote physical activity in a middle-income country.

PURPOSE: Conduct a social network analysis of the health and non-health related organizations that participate in Bogotá's Ciclovía Recreativa (Ciclovía). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Ciclovía is a multisectoral community-based mass program in which streets are temporarily closed to motorized transport, allowing exclusive access to individuals for leisure activities and physical activity. SUBJECTS: Twenty-five organizations that participate in the Ciclovía. MEASURES: Seven variables were examined by using network analytic methods: relationship, link attributes (integration, contact, and importance), and node attributes (leadership, years in the program, and the sector of the organization). ANALYSIS: The network analytic methods were based on a visual descriptive analysis and an exponential random graph model. RESULTS: Analysis shows that the most central organizations in the network were outside of the Health sector and include Sports and Recreation, Government, and Security sectors. The organizations work in clusters formed by organizations of different sectors. Organization importance and structural predictors were positively related to integration, while the number of years working with Ciclovía was negatively associated with integration. CONCLUSION: Ciclovía is a network whose structure emerged as a self-organized complex system. Ciclovía of Bogotá is an example of a program with public health potential formed by organizations of multiple sectors with Sports and Recreation as the most central.

Simple mathematical law benchmarks human confrontations.

Many high-profile societal problems involve an individual or group repeatedly attacking another - from child-parent disputes, sexual violence against women, civil unrest, violent conflicts and acts of terror, to current cyber-attacks on national infrastructure and ultrafast cyber-trades attacking stockholders. There is an urgent need to quantify the likely severity and timing of such future acts, shed light on likely perpetrators, and identify intervention strategies. Here we present a combined analysis of multiple datasets across all these domains which account for >100,000 events, and show that a simple mathematical law can benchmark them all. We derive this benchmark and interpret it, using a minimal mechanistic model grounded by state-of-the-art fieldwork. Our findings provide quantitative predictions concerning future attacks; a tool to help detect common perpetrators and abnormal behaviors; insight into the trajectory of a 'lone wolf'; identification of a critical threshold for spreading a message or idea among perpetrators; an intervention strategy to erode the most lethal clusters; and more broadly, a quantitative starting point for cross-disciplinary theorizing about human aggression at the individual and group level, in both real and online worlds.

The Ciclovia and Cicloruta programs: promising interventions to promote physical activity and social capital in Bogotá, Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: We compared participants from the Ciclovia (streets temporarily closed to motorized vehicles and open for pedestrians) and Cicloruta (bicycle paths) programs in Bogotá, Colombia, to assess associations of program participation with physical activity, safety, social capital, and equity. METHODS: We conducted 2 cross-sectional studies in October 2009 with intercept surveys: one among 1000 Ciclovia participants and the other among 1000 Cicloruta participants. RESULTS: Most Ciclovia participants met the physical activity recommendation in leisure time (59.5%), and most Cicloruta participants met it by cycling for transportation (70.5%). Ciclovia participants reported a higher perception of safety (51.2% regarding traffic and 42.4% about crime) and social capital (odds ratio = 2.0; 95% confidence interval = 1.4, 2.8) than did Cicloruta users. Most Cicloruta users reported living in low socioeconomic status categories (53.1%), had lower educational attainment (27%), and did not own cars (82.9%). Most Ciclovia participants reported living in middle socioeconomic status categories (64%), had low-to-middle educational attainment (51.1%), and did not own cars (66.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The Ciclovia and Cicloruta programs have the potential to equitably promote physical activity and provide a mobility alternative in complex urban settings such as Bogotá.

Do health benefits outweigh the costs of mass recreational programs? An economic analysis of four Ciclovía programs.

One promising public health intervention for promoting physical activity is the Ciclovía program. The Ciclovía is a regular multisectorial community-based program in which streets are temporarily closed for motorized transport, allowing exclusive access to individuals for recreational activities and physical activity. The objective of this study was to conduct an analysis of the cost-benefit ratios of physical activity of the Ciclovía programs of Bogotá and Medellín in Colombia, Guadalajara in México, and San Francisco in the U.S.A. The data of the four programs were obtained from program directors and local surveys. The annual cost per capita of the programs was: U.S. $6.0 for Bogotá, U.S. $23.4 for Medellín, U.S. $6.5 for Guadalajara, and U.S. $70.5 for San Francisco. The cost-benefit ratio for health benefit from physical activity was 3.23-4.26 for Bogotá, 1.83 for Medellín, 1.02-1.23 for Guadalajara, and 2.32 for San Francisco. For the program of Bogotá, the cost-benefit ratio was more sensitive to the prevalence of physically active bicyclists; for Guadalajara, the cost-benefit ratio was more sensitive to user costs; and for the programs of Medellín and San Francisco, the cost-benefit ratios were more sensitive to operational costs. From a public health perspective for promoting physical activity, these Ciclovía programs are cost beneficial.

Quantitative description of realistic wealth distributions by kinetic trading models.

Data on wealth distributions in trading markets show a power law behavior x(-)(1+alpha) at the high end, where, in general, alpha is greater than 1 (Pareto's law). Models based on kinetic theory, where a set of interacting agents trade money, yield power law tails if agents are assigned a saving propensity. In this paper we are solving the inverse problem, that is, in finding the saving propensity distribution which yields a given wealth distribution for all wealth ranges. This is done explicitly for two recently published and comprehensive wealth datasets.