Forecasting emergency medicine reserve demand with a novel decomposition-ensemble methodology.

Accurate prediction is a fundamental and leading work of the emergency medicine reserve management. Given that the emergency medicine reserve demand is affected by various factors during the public health events and thus the observed data are composed of different but hard-to-distinguish components, the traditional demand forecasting method is not competent for this case. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes the EMD-ELMAN-ARIMA (ELA) model which first utilizes Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to decompose the original series into various components. The Elman neural network and ARIMA models are employed to forecast the identified components and the final forecast values are generated by integrating the individual component predictions. For the purpose of validation, an empirical study is carried out based on the influenza data of Beijing from 2014 to 2018. The results clearly show the superiority of the proposed ELA algorithm over its two rivals including the ARIMA and ELMAN models.

Mechanisms underlying rat coronary arterial vasoconstriction induced by blockade of inward rectifier potassium channels with BaCl / 生理学报

In order to explore the mechanisms underlying the vasoconstriction induced by blockade of inward rectifier Kchannels (K) with BaCl, myogenic tone of isolated rat coronary artery (RCA) was recorded with wire myograph. The dependence of BaCl- induced contraction on intracellular Ca([Ca]) release and extracellular Ca([Ca]) influx was studied by Cadeprivation and restoration. The mechanisms underlying BaCl-induced RCA contraction were investigated with specific inhibitors. BaCl(0.1-1.0 mmol/L) contracted isolated RCA in a concentration-dependent manner and the maximal contraction was (5.69 ± 1.07) mN, nearly equal to contraction induced by 60 mmol/L KCl. The contractions induced by BaClin Ca-free solution and by followed restoration of 2.5 mmol/L Caaccounted for (35.44 ± 6.72)% and (64.56 ± 5.94)%, respectively. Calcium channel blocker nifedipine (0.3 μmol/L), cyclooxygenase inhibitor indomethacin (100 μmol/L), ERK1/2 inhibitor PD98059 (10 μmol/L) and chloride channel blocker niflumic acid (100 μmol/L) pretreatment depressed the BaCl-induced maximal contraction by (87.82 ± 5.43)% (P < 0.01), (73.23 ± 5.47)% (P < 0.01), (75.69 ± 7.94)% (P < 0.01) and (83.24 ± 7.69)% (P < 0.01), respectively. These results demonstrate that BaClinduces vasoconstriction in RCA by enhancing both [Ca]release and [Ca]influx, and suggest that increase of prostanoids synthesis, activation of calcium channels and chloride channels, as well as ERK1/2 pathway may be involved in this process.