Predicting poverty. Data mining approaches to the health and demographic surveillance system in Cuatro Santos, Nicaragua.

BACKGROUND: In order to further identify the needed interventions for continued poverty reduction in our study area Cuatro Santos, northern Nicaragua, we aimed to elucidate what predicts poverty, measured by the Unsatisfied Basic Need index. This analysis was done by using decision tree methodology applied to the Cuatro Santos health and demographic surveillance databases. METHODS: Using variables derived from the health and demographic surveillance update 2014, transferring individual data to the household level we used the decision tree framework Conditional Inference trees to predict the outcome "poverty" defined as two to four unsatisfied basic needs using the Unsatisfied Basic Need Index. We further validated the trees by applying Conditional random forest analyses in order to assess and rank the importance of predictors about their ability to explain the variation of the outcome "poverty." The majority of the Cuatro Santos households provided information and the included variables measured housing conditions, assets, and demographic experiences since the last update (5 yrs), earlier participation in interventions and food security during the last 4 weeks. RESULTS: Poverty was rare in households that have some assets and someone in the household that has a higher education than primary school. For these households participating in the intervention that installed piped water with water meter was most important, but also when excluding this variable, the resulting tree showed the same results. When assets were not taken into consideration, the importance of education was pronounced as a predictor for welfare. The results were further strengthened by the validation using Conditional random forest modeling showing the same variables being important as predicting the outcome in the CI tree analysis. As assets can be a result, rather than a predictor of more affluence our results in summary point specifically to the importance of education and participation in the water installation intervention as predictors for more affluence. CONCLUSION: Predictors of poverty are useful for directing interventions and in the Cuatro Santos area education seems most important to prioritize. Hopefully, the lessons learned can continue to develop the Cuatro Santos communities as well as development in similar poor rural settings around the world.

Swift heavy ion irradiation of Cu-Zn-Al and Cu-Al-Ni alloys.

The effects produced by swift heavy ions in the martensitic (18R) and austenitic phase (ß) of Cu based shape memory alloys were characterized. Single crystal samples with a surface normal close to [210](18R) and [001](ß) were irradiated with 200 MeV of Kr(15+), 230 MeV of Xe(15+), 350 and 600 MeV of Au(26+) and Au(29+). Changes in the microstructure were studied with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). It was found that swift heavy ion irradiation induced nanometer sized defects in the 18R martensitic phase. In contrast, a hexagonal close-packed phase formed on the irradiated surface of ß phase samples. HRTEM images of the nanometer sized defects observed in the 18R martensitic phase were compared with computer simulated images in order to interpret the origin of the observed contrast. The best agreement was obtained when the defects were assumed to consist of local composition modulations.

Preservation of the liver graft with Celsior solution.

INTRODUCTION: We studied the evolution of the liver graft with preservation in Celsior (CS) compared with University of Wisconsin solution (UW). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A randomized prospective clinical study in 80 liver transplants (OLTs) from May 2001 to October 2003, compared CS (group I; n = 40) and UW (group II; n = 40). The characteristics of the donors were homogeneous, with no significant differences in 15 variables. CS was perfused with 4 L through the aorta, 2 L through the portal vein, and 1 L, through the portal vein on the back table; and the UW, as 3 L, 2 L, and 1 L, respectively. All OLTs were performed using the piggyback technique. RESULTS: Group I experienced reperfusion syndrome (n = 2; 5.9%), primary graft nonfunction (n = 0); vascular complications (n = 0); biliary anastomosis stenosis (n = 8; 22.9%), intensive care unit (ICU) days (n = 4.1 +/- 1), death within 30 days (n = 1; 3.1%). The patient and graft survivals at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months were 93.7%, 93.7%, 90.2%, 85.7%, 85.7%, and 94.3%, 88.5%, 85.2%, 78%, 78%, respectively. For group II; the reperfusion syndrome occured in 6 patients (17.6%); primary graft nonfunction (n = 0); vascular complications (n = 0), biliary anastomosis stenosis (n = 3; 8.6%), ICU days (n = 4.9 +/- 2.4) and death within 30 days (n = 1; 3.1%); The patient and graft survival at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months were 96.9%, 93.5%, 89.8%, 79.8%, 79.8% and 94.3%, 88.3%, 84.9%, 75.5%, 66.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CS offers the similar safety to UW for preservation of liver grafts within these ischemia times.

Liver transplant, in emergency 0 (UNOS Status 1).

INTRODUCTION: The emergency 0 (UNOS status 1) liver transplant (OLT) constitutes a challenge to the transplant team. The precarious condition of the patient and the use, sometimes forced by the instability of the patients, of marginal or different blood type grafts leads to worse results than in nonemergency OLT. Herein we have presented our experience with emergency 0 OLT in the first 5 years of our program. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Among the 167 OLTs performed in the first 5 years of our program, 10 were emergency 0 OLTs. The patients were transplanted within 72 hours of inclusion on the waiting list, seven within 24 hours. The indications for emergency OLT were fulminant liver failure (FLF) in six and graft failure in the first week post-OLT in four. RESULTS: All OLTs were performed with preservation of the vena cava (piggyback) and without venovenous bypass. There was 100% patient survival of those who required an emergency 0 OLT (follow-up period of 3 to 7 years). The graft survival in FLF was 50%. Emergency retransplant was necessary because of acute rejection due to ABO incompatibility in two patients, and due to arterial ischemia in another patient. The emergency retransplants were all successful. CONCLUSION: In our experience the emergency 0 OLT is a formidable challenge for the team, but we achieved a patient survival comparable to or even better than that of OLT for chronic liver disease.

Treatment of cutaneous infection by Alternaria alternata with voriconazole in a liver transplant patient.

Alternaria alternata is a dematiaceous mold capable of causing systemic and dermatological infections in immunosuppressed patients. We present a case of a liver transplant patient with cutaneous alternariosis and no response to amphotericin B lipid or surgical debridement of the lesions. Treatment with intravenous voriconazole was initiated, followed by the oral protocol, with complete resolution of the lesions. Voriconazole is an efficient alternative for the treatment of cutaneous lesions produced by A alternata.

Lipid peroxidation in ischemia-reperfusion oxidative injury of the graft preserved in Celsior and University of Wisconsin solutions on a pig pancreas transplantation model.

BACKGROUND: Graft pancreatitis (GP) is one the main technical problems associated with pancreas transplant (PT). It occurs in 20% of patients representing a risk factor for thrombosis and cause of graft loss. GP is related to oxidative effects from oxygen-derived free radicals (OFR) in ischemia-reperfusion injury. We evaluated lipid peroxidation by the OFR in the PT of pig organs preserved with either Celsior or Wisconsin solutions. METHODS: In Landrace pigs we performed 24 pancreas allografts, which were preserved 18 or 24 hours: 12 with Celsior solution (CS) and 12 with Wisconsin solution (UW). No immunosuppression was administered. The oxidative effects were determined by quantification of malondialdehyde (MDA) and 4-hydroxyalkenals (4-HDA) and of the carbonyl groups of proteins in our pancreatic tissue samples and measured at different times: (A) baseline in the donor, (B) after perfusion of the graft, (C) after the ischemia period, and (D) 30 minutes after ischemia-reperfusion of the graft. RESULTS: The MDA and 4-HDA values were similar in conditions A, B, and C, but showed an extraordinary increase after ischemia-reperfusion in D, among both the 18- or 24-hour preserved grafts and in the same proportion with CS and UW. The carbonyl groups of the proteins rose in conditions B and C (cold ischemia), but less so in state D (reperfusion). CONCLUSIONS: The oxidative injury of a pancreatic graft preserved for 18 or 24 hours occurs during reperfusion, with an extraordinary intensity, but similarly with CS and UW, an observation that may help to explain graft pancreatitis.

Sexual abuse during childhood and adolescence among Nicaraguan men and women: a population-based anonymous survey.

AIMS: The objective was to describe experiences of sexual abuse occurring before 19 years of age among men and women in León, Nicaragua and to explore the possible association to later sexual risk behavior. METHOD: A sub-sample of literate urban men and women 25-44 years of age was selected from a representative sample of households in León. After an invitation to a public health event, 154 men (53% of the invited) and 213 women (66% of those invited) participated in giving written answers to an anonymous questionnaire. RESULTS: Twenty percent of men and 26% of women reported that they had experienced sexual abuse. Women had been victims of attempted or completed rape twice as often as men, 15% as compared to 7%. Thirty-three percent of the abuse towards boys and 66% of the abuse towards girls was committed by family members. Women who had experienced attempted or completed rape were more likely to later have had a higher number of sexual partners compared to non-abused or moderately abused women. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual abuse of children and adolescents of both sexes is common in Nicaragua. The results underscore the urgent need to address this serious problem more openly, and to make more resources available for the prevention of sexual abuse and for support to victims.

Fertility and infant mortality trends in Nicaragua 1964-1993. The role of women's education.

OBJECTIVES: To assess trends in fertility and infant mortality rates (IMR) in León, Nicaragua, and to examine the effect of women's education on these trends during 1964-1993, a period of rapid social change. DESIGN: Cross sectional survey, based on random cluster sampling. A retrospective questionnaire on reproductive events was used. SETTING: The municipality of León, which is the second largest city in Nicaragua, with a total population of 195,000 inhabitants. SUBJECTS: 10,867 women aged 15-49 years, corresponding to 176,281 person years of reproductive life. Their children contributed 22,899 person years under 12 months of age to the IMR analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fertility rate (number of pregnancies per 1000 person years) for specific age groups and calendar periods, total fertility rate, and IMR. RESULTS: Fertility rates and IMR declined in parallel, especially during the 1980s. However, education specific fertility rates did not decline, but the proportion of educated young women increased from 20% to 46%. This had also an impact on the overall IMR decline, although IMR reduction mainly took place among infants of women without formal education, decreasing from 118 to 69 per 1000 during the observation period. CONCLUSIONS: In this demographic transition over three decades, fertility and IMR declined simultaneously. The decreasing trend in fertility was mainly explained by an increase in women's education, while the IMR decline seemed to be the result of health interventions, specially targeted to poorer groups of women and their infants. Thus, social differences in fertility rates remained unchanged, while equity in chances of child survival increased.

Gender and social differences in adolescent sexuality and reproduction in Nicaragua.

PURPOSE: The aim of this research was to study gender and social differences in adolescent sexuality and reproduction, as reflected in age at first intercourse and age at first pregnancy, as a basis for future interventions in the municipality of León, Nicaragua. METHODS: In a community-based cross-sectional study including 7789 households, all women aged 15-49 years (n = 10,867) were interviewed about socioeconomic, sexual, and reproductive issues. A random subsample of men (n = 388) and women (n = 413) aged 15-49 years was interviewed in more detail about sexual patterns and reproduction. RESULTS: The median age at first intercourse for women and men was 17.8 and 16.2 years, respectively. Women's average latency period to end of first pregnancy was 22 months. There was a significant tendency to start active sexual life later among today's girls aged 15-20 years, compared to the groups 21-27, 28-35, and 36-49 years old. A similar trend was found in age at first pregnancy. These secular trends were not found among men. Age at first pregnancy for current adolescents was lower among those having less formal education. CONCLUSIONS: The short latency period between first sexual intercourse and end of first pregnancy, probably reflecting lack of access to counseling and contraception, is worrying in light of the growing sexually transmitted disease/human immunodeficiency virus threat. The secular trend of later start of reproduction, however, is a positive sign which partly may be an effect of increasing education in the Nicaraguan society.

PIP: This study sought to uncover gender and social differences in adolescent sexuality and reproduction in Nicaragua through an investigation of age at first coitus and first pregnancy. Data were gathered through a 1993 cross-sectional, community-based survey of a representative sample of 7789 households in the municipality of Leon. Interviews were held with 10,867 women aged 15-49, and more detailed information was elicited from a random subsample of 388 men and 413 women. It was found that median age at first coitus was 17.8 for women and 16.2 for men, with 25% of the population engaging in coitus before age 15. Women delivered their first child at a median age of 19.6 years, whereas men became fathers at 21.2 years. Lack of formal education increased risk of earlier pregnancy for women by 2.5 times, but no increased risk occurred for rural versus urban residence. Earlier pregnancy occurred in women who did not live with their biological fathers during childhood and adolescence (living with a stepfather increased risk of early coitus and delivery even more). Men without a formal education became fathers at an earlier age in both urban and rural areas. The period between first coitus and delivery for women was 21.5 months (20 months for women with primary education or less and 27 months for those who completed ninth-grader or higher). Age groups comparisons (15-20, 21-27, 28-35, and 36-49) showed that the current adolescents were experiencing first coitus and first pregnancy significantly later than the older groups but that the 28-35 age group showed significantly earlier onset of each event. These results point to the need to improve gender equity and women's status and to develop a health care policy that responds to the special needs of adolescents (counseling, access to contraceptives, and availability of safe abortion). Sex education programs must begin at the primary levels in schools because of high drop-out rates.

Contraceptive patterns among women and men in León, Nicaragua.

The aim was to study the contraceptive patterns among men and women in León, Nicaragua. A questionnaire about sexual, contraceptive, reproductive and socioeconomic issues was directed to 7,789 households including 22% of all women of the municipality aged 15-49 years (n = 10,867). A subsample of 388 men and 413 women aged 15-49 years was drawn at random. Refusals were less than 2%. Private interviews revealed that among fertile women who had been sexually active within the last three months, non-pregnant and wishing to avoid pregnancy, 77% were contracepting. Female sterilization was the most common contraceptive method (39%), followed by intrauterine device (16%). Even though around 60% of women at some time had tried oral contraceptives, only 13% of contraceptors used them currently. The rhythm and interruption methods together constituted only 4%. Condom use was low and mainly occasional. Contraceptive use in sexually active women aged 15-44 years was lower among those having lower education, living in rural areas, and living under poverty conditions. The predominance of female sterilization and the occasional condom use-mainly reported by men-reflects a situation of relative male control over contraception and reproduction. This probably originates from "machista" values where men having many children with different women are considered strong. There was also a significantly higher use of contraceptives among the better-off women and men compared with the extremely poor. The situation of many poor women, in a country with limited contraceptive services, is worrying considering that abortion is illegal and the threat of HIV epidemic is growing. The situation for adolescents is particularly problematic with low experience in contraceptive use.

Salud reproductiva e infantil en León: un estudio comunitario en Nicaragua, octubre-dicembre 1993

Este estudio se realizó en el Municipio de León-Nicaragua el diseño fue de corte transversal involucrando una muestra representativa de viviendas del área urbana y rural de la municipalidad de León, se seleccionarón muestras de varones y mujeres entre 15 y 49 años de edad para entrevistas más detalladas sobre el patron de sexualidad y experiencia de planificación familiar. Se realizó estudio retrospectivo de caso y control para estudiar los factores de riesgo de la mortalidad en menores de 5 años, la muerte de los niños fueron explorados a través del método autopsía verbal. Con este estudio se pretendio estimar las tasas de mortalidad infantil y menor de 5 años en el Municipio de León. Analizar los vectores de uso de la situación inicial y familiar. Estiman la tasa de mortalidad materna discutir el patron reproductivo en las mujeres entre 15-49 años de edad, asi como estudiar el inicio de la vida sexual y el uso de métodos de planificación familiar, utilización del control prenatal y servicios de salud infantil, descubrir el actual patron de alimentacion de los niños

Respiratory syncytial virus infection in hospitalized patients and healthy children in El Salvador.

Nasopharyngeal specimens from 42 children less than one-year old hospitalized with bronchiolitis or pneumonia in El Salvador were analyzed for the presence of subgroup-specific respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antigens by the indirect immunofluorescence technique. The antigen RSV-A was demonstrated in 28 children, RSV-B in three, and in one child subgroup, specificity could not be determined. The male:female ratio in the RSV-infected children was 1.9:1. The most severe disease, requiring intensive care, was observed in two infants with RSV-B infection. Determination of serum IgG, IgA, and IgM antibodies in acute and convalescent sera showed that none of the tests alone had sufficient sensitivity for routine diagnostic purposes, although, in combination, they provided a correct diagnosis in 86% of the RSV-infected children. A seroprevalence study of IgG, IgA, and IgM antibodies in 206 healthy children showed that a primary RSV infection is usually acquired during the first year of life in El Salvador. These results also indicated that reinfections with RSV frequently occur during the first 3-4 years of life and suggest that the occurrence of serum RSV IgA antibodies may be a marker of reinfection.

Eosinophil cationic protein in nasopharyngeal secretions and serum of infants infected with respiratory syncytial virus.

Eosinophil cationic protein (ECP) was assayed in nasopharyngeal secretion (NPS) and serum from 42 infants, hospitalized with acute lower respiratory infection, in El Salvador and the results analyzed in relation to etiology of the infection. ECP concentrations were high in NPS, at an average 50 times higher than those found in serum. Exceedingly high levels of ECP (> 1000 micrograms/L) were found more frequently in wheezing than in non-wheezing children (30% vs 7%) and, accordingly, were more commonly found in children hospitalized with bronchiolitis than in those with pneumonia. Excessive levels were significantly more common in girls than in boys. Of the 42 cases, 28 were found to be caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) subgroup A, and 3 by RSV-B, by means of detection of RSV antigen in nasopharyngeal cells. ECP serum levels were moderately elevated during the acute phase of the respiratory infection and increased slightly but significantly, in cases with RSV antigen-positive bronchiolitis, but not in those with pneumonia. The ECP levels in NPS from patients in Sweden who, by antigen detection in NPS cells, were diagnosed as either RSV or para-influenza 3 infection or none of these, were similar. These results indicate that elevation of ECP in NPS is associated with acute lower respiratory infection in general, but particularly pronounced in cases of bronchiolitis. Elevation of ECP is not an exclusive consequence of RSV infection, but may occur to an equal extent in infections caused by other agents.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)