Herd-level risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease-positive herd status in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin cervid herds.

The objective of this study was to evaluate risks related to introduction of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) to farmed cervid herds in Minnesota (MN), Pennsylvania (PA), and Wisconsin (WI). This was the first study to evaluate risk factors related to multiple pathways of CWD transmission to farmed cervid herds. Participating herds in this case-control study included 22 case and 49 control herds identified through participation in the respective mandatory State CWD herd program. Data was voluntarily collected from white-tailed deer (WTD) study herds using a questionnaire and state animal health agency databases. Univariable analyses identified associations between CWD-positive herds and variables representing different transmission pathways, including direct contact with infected farmed cervids (imported from a herd that later tested positive for CWD) odds ratio (OR):7.16, 95 % confidence intervals (CI):1.64-31.21 and indirect contact with infected wild cervids (access of domestic cats to pens or feed storage area) OR:4.07, 95 % CI:1.35-12.26, observed evidence of mammalian scavengers inside or outside of fenceline in the previous 12 months OR:6.55, 95 % CI:1.37-31.32, ≤ 5 km distance to nearest detected CWD-positive wild cervid OR:3.08, 95 % CI:1.01-9.39, forested area crosses the perimeter fenceline OR:3.54, 95 % CI:1.13-11.11, ≤ 0.3 m distance of water source to fenceline OR:4.71, 95 % CI:1.60-13.83, and water source shared with wild cervids (running or standing water) OR:4.17, 95 % CI:1.34-12.92. Three variables from univariable analyses that represented different biological transmission pathways were placed in a Firth's penalized maximum likelihood multivariable logistic regression to evaluate associations between transmission pathway and CWD herd infection status. For the issue of low sample size and overfitting, 95 % CIs for estimated coefficients for the three variables were computed via bootstrapping of 10,000 independent bootstrap samples. The three biological variables were significantly associated with herd CWD infection status: imported cervids from a herd that later tested positive for CWD (OR:5.63; 95 % CI:1.1-28.2), ≤ 0.3 m distance of cervid water source to perimeter fenceline (OR:4.83; 95 % CI:1.5-16.1), and ≤ 5 km distance to nearest detected CWD-positive wild cervid (OR:4.10; 95 % CI:1.1-15.2). The risk factors associated with CWD herd status identified in this study indicated the importance of transmission through direct contact pathways with infected cervid herds (introduction of cervids from herds later identified as CWD-infected) and indirect contact pathways with infected wild cervids that could be related to other animals through the perimeter fence. Further studies are needed to confirm and clarify understanding of indirect pathways to allow development of improved biosecurity practices to prevent CWD introduction to cervid herds.

Contact tracing for the control of infectious disease epidemics: Chronic Wasting Disease in deer farms.

Contact tracing is a crucial component of the control of many infectious diseases, but is an arduous and time consuming process. Procedures that increase the efficiency of contact tracing increase the chance that effective controls can be implemented sooner and thus reduce the magnitude of the epidemic. We illustrate a procedure using Graph Theory in the context of infectious disease epidemics of farmed animals in which the epidemics are driven mainly by the shipment of animals between farms. Specifically, we created a directed graph of the recorded shipments of deer between deer farms in Pennsylvania over a timeframe and asked how the properties of the graph could be exploited to make contact tracing more efficient should Chronic Wasting Disease (a prion disease of deer) be discovered in one of the farms. We show that the presence of a large strongly connected component in the graph has a significant impact on the number of contacts that can arise.