Convergence in health care spending across counties in New York from 2007 through 2016.

BACKGROUND: One approach considered for reducing health care spending is to narrow the gap in spending between high- and low-spending areas. The goal would be to reduce spending in the high areas to similar levels achieved in areas that use health care more efficiently. This paper examined the degree to which high-spending areas remain high-spending and which types of service lead to convergence or divergence in spending in New York State. METHODS: This analysis utilized publicly available data on county-level spending trends for the Medicare fee-for-service population from 2007 to 2016. The study applied methods previously used to evaluate changes in the regional variation of health care spending nationally to county-level data within New York. RESULTS: The spread of health care spending converged slightly over the ten-year period analyzed. There was also evidence for regression to the mean-effects and changes in the relative rankings of spending across counties during this time. While there was strong evidence for convergence, many high-spending counties in 2007 remained high-spending in 2016. There were also differences in which services drove spending variation at the national level compared to within New York. CONCLUSIONS: These findings point to counties with consistently high spending as a potential focus for health care cost-control efforts. Moreover, efforts to reduce unwarranted variation in spending may need to be tailored to the circumstances of particular regions as there are geographic differences in which services drive spending variation. Regression to the mean effects also have important implications for the specifications of alternative provider payment models, such as accountable care organizations, which promote convergence in spending by utilizing spending targets.

Payments from drug companies to physicians are associated with higher volume and more expensive opioid analgesic prescribing.

BACKGROUND: While the rise in opioid analgesic prescribing and overdose deaths was multifactorial, financial relationships between opioid drug manufacturers and physicians may be one important factor. METHODS: Using national data from 2013 to 2015, we conducted a retrospective cohort study linking the Open Payments database and Medicare Part D drug utilization data. We created two cohorts of physicians, those receiving opioid-related payments in 2014 and 2015, but not in 2013, and those receiving opioid-related payments in 2015 but not in 2013 and 2014. Our main outcome measures were expenditures on filled prescriptions, daily doses filled, and expenditures per daily dose. For each cohort, we created a comparison group that did not receive an opioid-related payment in any year and was matched on state, specialty, and baseline opioid expenditures. We used a difference-in-differences analysis with linear generalized estimating equations regression models. RESULTS: We identified 6,322 physicians who received opioid-related payments in 2014 and 2015, but not in 2013; they received a mean total of $251. Relative to comparison group physicians, they had a significantly larger increase in mean opioid expenditures ($6,171; 95% CI: 4,997 to 7,346), daily doses dispensed (1,574; 95%CI: 1,330 to 1,818) and mean expenditures per daily dose ($0.38; 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.47). We identified 8,669 physicians who received opioid-related payments in 2015, but not in 2013 or 2014; they received a mean total of $40. Relative to comparison physicians, they also had a larger increase in mean opioid expenditures ($1,031; 95% CI: 603 to 1,460), daily doses dispensed (557; 95% CI: 417 to 697), and expenditures per daily dose ($0.06; 95% CI: 0.002 to 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings add to the growing public policy concern that payments from opioid drug manufacturers can influence physician prescribing. Interventions are needed to reduce such promotional activities or to mitigate their influence.

Analysis of early accountable care organizations defines patient, structural, cost, and quality-of-care characteristics.

Accountable care organizations (ACOs) have attracted interest from many policy makers and clinical leaders because of their potential to improve the quality of care and reduce costs. Federal ACO programs for Medicare beneficiaries are now up and running, but little information is available about the baseline characteristics of early entrants. In this descriptive study we present data on the structural and market characteristics of these early ACOs and compare ACOs' patient populations, costs, and quality with those of their non-ACO counterparts at baseline. We found that ACO patients were more likely than non-ACO patients to be older than age eighty and had higher incomes. ACO patients were less likely than non-ACO patients to be black, covered by Medicaid, or disabled. The cost of care for ACO patients was slightly lower than that for non-ACO patients. Slightly fewer than half of the ACOs had a participating hospital. Hospitals that were in ACOs were more likely than non-ACO hospitals to be large, teaching, and not-for-profit, although there was little difference in their performance on quality metrics. Our findings can be useful in interpreting the early results from the federal ACO programs and in establishing a baseline to assess the programs' development.

Paying for value: replacing Medicare's sustainable growth rate formula with incentives to improve care.

This brief sets forth a set of policy options to improve the way health care providers are paid by Medicare. The authors suggest repealing Medicare's sustain­able growth rate (SGR) formula for physician fees and replacing it with a pay-for-value approach that would: 1) increase payments over time only for physicians and other provid­ers who participate in innovative care arrangements; 2) strengthen primary care and care teams; and 3) implement bundled payments for hospital-related care. These reforms would be adopted by Medicare, Medicaid, and private plans in the new insurance marketplaces, with the goal of accelerating innovation in care delivery throughout the health system. Together, these policies could more than offset the cost of repealing the SGR formula, saving $788 billion for the federal government over 10 years and $1.3 trillion nationwide. Savings also would accrue to state and local governments ($163 billion), private employ­ers ($91 billion), and households ($291 billion).

Medicare beneficiaries less likely to experience cost- and access-related problems than adults with private coverage.

The experiences of people covered by Medicare and those with private employer insurance can help inform policy debates over the federal budget deficit, Medicare's affordability, and the expansion of private health insurance under the Affordable Care Act. This article provides evidence that people with employer-sponsored coverage were more likely than Medicare beneficiaries to forgo needed care, experience access problems due to cost, encounter medical bill problems, and be less satisfied with their coverage. Within the subset of beneficiaries who are age sixty-five or older, those enrolled in the private Medicare Advantage program were less likely than those in traditional Medicare to have premiums and out-of-pocket costs exceed 10 percent of their income. But they were also more likely than those in traditional Medicare to rate their insurance poorly and to report cost-related access problems. These results suggest that policy options to shift Medicare beneficiaries into private insurance would need to be attentive to potentially negative insurance experiences, problems obtaining needed care, and difficulties paying medical bills.

Age Estimates in the National Health Accounts.

This article presents historical trends of health spending by age. Personal health care is broken out into seven age groups for 1987, 1996, and 1999. Analysis of trends in health care spending is provided separately for children (age 0-18), working-age adults (age 19-64), and the elderly (age 65 or over). Future impacts of aging are also discussed, including using the historical estimates in a simulation to show only the effect of changing the age mix of the population over the next 50 years.

Burden of health care costs: businesses, households, and governments, 1987-2000.

In this article, we estimate expenditures by businesses, households, and governments in providing financing for health care for 1987-2000 and track measures of burden that these costs impose. Although burden measures for businesses and the Federal Government have stabilized or improved since 1993, measures of burden for State and local governments are deteriorating slightly--a situation that is likely to worsen in the near future. As health care spending accelerates and an economy wide recession seems imminent, businesses, households, and governments that finance health care will face renewed health cost pressures on their revenue and income.